BP Top Prospects: Rockies

1. RHP Jonathan Gray
2. CF David Dahl
3. OF Raimel Tapia
4. RHP Eddie Butler
5. 3B Ryan McMahon
6. LHP Kyle Freeland
7. 2B Forrest Wall
8. LHP Tyler Anderson
9. SS Trevor Story
10. 2B Dom Nunez

1. Jonathan Gray

Position: RHP
DOB: 11/05/1991
Height/Weight: 6’4” 255 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2013 draft, University of Oklahoma (Norman, OK)
Previous Ranking: #1 (Org), #16 (Top 101)
2014 Stats: 3.91 ERA (124.1 IP, 107 H, 113 K, 41 BB) at Double-A Tulsa
The Tools: 8 potential FB; 7 SL; 6 potential CH

What Happened in 2014: Even with the raw stuff outdistancing the production, Gray put together a solid showing in the Texas League and he continued to progress towards a Denver debut.

Strengths: Workhorse build with physicality and aggressiveness on the bump; confident pounding the zone with upper-90s heater; triple-digit capable; fastball plays across quadrants; wipeout slider works in and out of zone; elite two-pitch combo with parallel plane and release; developmental focus on change piece, flashing hard fade and deception; frontline offerings so good even average changeup will miss bats and barrels; can flip script with change-of-pace curve.

Weaknesses: Changeup still lags relative fastball/slider; can struggle on both ends, implementing too firm or alternatively slowing arm and tipping; content pitching to contact and limited pitch count leave some question as to how dominant the stuff might be against top-tier bats; some stiffness in landing likely limits command ceiling.

Overall Future Potential: 7; no. 2 starter

Realistic Role: 6; no. 3 starter

Risk Factor/Injury History: Low; Double-A success; near major-league ready

Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The only thing standing in the way of Gray projecting as a potential SP1 is Coors Field, and that’s something that is going to be embedded in a lot of these pitcher write-ups throughout this list. The fastball/slider combo could lead to 220 strikeouts at the major-league level, but while he should pitch well enough on the road to act as a de facto ace, the home starts mixed in will leave his ratios closer to the 3.50/1.20 range.

The Year Ahead: Observing Gray in 2014 was akin to witnessing a bartender utilize a bottle of Lagavulin 16 to pour you a glass of Johnny Black—the result was perfectly satisfying, but lacked the impact and finish you anticipated upon spying the distinctive glass. The body, control, and quality of weaponry is everything you’d expect in an elite power arm, but Colorado’s conservative guidance this past summer left evaluators more reliant on projection than typical when grading out an advanced Double-A arm with loud present stuff. Even with a focus on developing his third-best offering and pitching to contact, the former Sooner still found success, regularly inducing soft contact from Texas League bats thanks to his ability to generally live around the zone with two double-plus offerings, and it’s tough to envision him failing to rack up strikeouts once permitted a slightly longer leash via pitch count and pitch selection. There is little doubt that Gray will be a valuable major-league asset, and anything shy of number three production, even in the challenging Coors environs, would come as a surprise. He should start 2015 in Triple-A, but may not face the requisite resistance to truly refine until he faces major-league lineups capable of handling his electric arsenal.

Major league ETA: 2015