Following Baseball Prospectus' top prospect lists, the 'Before They Were Pros' series provides reports on the top prospects in baseball from their time in high school at PG events.
As part of Perfect Game's partnership with Baseball Prospectus, David Rawnsley and Patrick Ebert will be conducting a “Before They Were Pros” series, providing scouting reports on some of the top prospects in baseball from when they were in high school attending PG events. This six-part series (one for each division in MLB) will appear once Baseball Prospectus has provided their own detailed scouting reports of the top prospects, team-by-team, as part of their own series.
We continue with a look at the National League West. Be sure to read Baseball Prospectus' features on each of the five teams:
Diamondbacks | Rockies | Padres | Giants | Dodgers
And here are links to the other 'Before They Were Pros' series already conducted:
NL East | NL Central | AL East
Arizona Diamondbacks
Braden Shipley – RHP
If
you read enough of the Before They Were Pros series or take the time
to delve into enough player's backgrounds, you'll find perhaps a
surprising number of top prospects and present Major Leaguers who are
conversions from one position to another. Braden Shipley is another
of the player to pitcher conversions.
Shipley
attended high school in Medford, Oregon, and was not a very heavily
recruited high school player. In fact, he had no commitment when he
attended the PG West Uncommitted Showcase in November of his senior
year. He went to that event as a 6-foot-1, 170-pound primary
shortstop and secondary pitcher and did both at the showcase. Shipley
was a decent middle infield prospect, although his 7.50 speed in the
60-yard dash was a drawback. He had smooth actions in the infield,
enough arm strength and swung that bat well. There was no standout
tool but he knew how to play and was physically projectable. As
strictly a position prospect he garnered a PG grade of 8.5.
But
Shipley also took the mound and was much better than that. He had a
short, quick and very easy arm action off the mound and an upper-80s
fastball that touched 90 mph that really jumped on hitters quickly.
Shipley also threw a 74 mph curveball that had hard, tight spin and
an occasional changeup. He received a PG grade of 9.5 off the mound
and definitely profiled as a high D-I or even professional prospect.
His overall report after the event read:
Projectable
athletic body, some developing strength, young face. Quality 2-way
prospect, best on mound this event. FB touches 90 mph,
short/quick/clean arm action, FB jumps on hitters, hard spin on
downer CB, very good sharpness at times, needs to learn to throw
inside more. Velo/stuff projects. Solid infield actions, good bat
speed, handles the barrel very well, short swing with consistent hard
contact. Should keep getting better in all areas. Quality D1 type
player, maybe more.
Shipley
first committed to Western Nevada CC after the event, then later to
the University of Nevada. He played almost exclusively at shortstop
as a freshman for the Wolf Pack, hitting .287-1-19 in 44 starts and
earning second team All-WAC honors. Shipley did manage to work in 10
innings on the mound, posting an 8.71 ERA and allowing 27 baserunners.
A trip that summer to the Alaskan Summer League turned Shipley's career
path around. He received more mound time, going 1-2 with seven saves
and a 2.44 ERA and was named the top overall prospect in the league
by Perfect Game while featuring a consistent mid-90s fastball out of
the bullpen. Shipley was a full-time pitcher when he returned to
Nevada, going 9-4, 2.20 in 98 innings as a sophomore while getting
only 12 at-bats. He virtually duplicated that performance as a
junior, going 7-3, 2.77 in 107 innings while getting two token
at-bats, both resulting in strikeouts.
Shipley
was the third college pitcher selected in the 2013 draft and was the
15th overall selection, signing with the Diamondbacks for a $2.25
million signing bonus. – David Rawnsley
Aaron Blair – RHP
Aaron
Blair has one of the more unique development resumes one could find
among top prospects today and his continued improvement since signing
with the Diamondbacks isn't surprising in context. He's gone from
receiving a PG grade of 7.5 as a high school junior to being a
lightly recruited high school senior to a good D-I starter in college
to a top draft pick and present top prospect.
The
now 22-year old righthander grew up in Las Vegas and went to the 2008
Jr. National Showcase. He was listed at 6-foot-1, 175-pounds at that
point and did very little to either distinguish himself or even show
that he was projectable. Blair pitched in the 79-81 mph area at that
event, but just as notably in some ways ran the 60-yard dash in 8.67
seconds and was timed at 5.41 from home to first base. That's another
way of saying that he wasn't that good of an athlete at that point in
time.
But
approximately a year later, at the beginning of his senior year,
Blair was up to 88 mph and pitching for the Ohio Warhawks at the WWBA
World Championship. He threw again for the Warhawks at the 2010 18u
WWBA National Championship after graduating and being picked in the
21st round by the Houston Astros, where he topped out at 91 mph with
a hard spinning mid-70s curveball. Blair was also now listed at
6-foot-5, 229-pounds, a huge improvement in size and strength.
Blair
traveled across the country to attend Marshall in West Virginia and
his record at Marshall was reflective of that program's record, as
Blair went 9-16 in three seasons, including 5-5, 2.85 in 84 innings
as a junior, while the Thundering Herd finished a combined 57-102
during that span.
Where
Blair made his reputation with scouts was pitching for
Yarmouth-Dennis in the Cape Cod League the summer before his junior
season. He went 6-0, 1.17 during the regular season, then added two
more wins during the playoffs to cap off a perfect summer that saw
him win almost as many games in two months as he did in three college
seasons. Blair pitched in the 91-94 mph area in the Cape, with a
curveball that was now touching 80 mph and an outstanding changeup
he'd developed at Marshall.
Blair
was the 36th overall pick in the 2013 draft and signed for a
$1,435,000 bonus. – David Rawnsley
Brandon Drury – 3B/2B
Ranked
as the 493rd high school prospect in the class of 2010, Perfect Game only had one
extended look at Drury, which occurred in 2008 at the NorCal
Underclass Showcase. This was the summer before Drury's junior year
in high school, and he received this report after his performance:
Brandon
has a very athletic build, good hands and actions in the infield,
soft hands, looks easy in the field, made plays in games, very good
bat speed at the plate, ball flies off bat when centered, hard line
drive contact to all fields, very good juice in bat, can hit, very
good game contact, very interesting player. He is also a good
student.
At
6-feet, 175-pounds, Drury received a PG grade of 8.5 at the time,
although he added another inch and 10 pounds of strength to his
athletic frame prior to graduating in 2010. It was easy to see him
improving across the board after throwing 82 mph across the infield
and running the 60-yard dash in 7.42 seconds.
Hailing
from Grants Pass, Oregon, it was expected that Drury's game would
take a step up in college, as he had committed to play in-state for
national Division I powerhouse Oregon State, who were coming off of
recent back-to-back College World Series championships in 2006 and
2007. Oregon State also had done (and continues to do) an excellent
job recruiting in the Pacific Northwest, rarely letting their top
recruits get away.
While
Drury being drafted in the 13th round of the 2010 MLB Draft wasn't a surprise, the Braves clearly did
their homework to gauge his interest and sign him away from the
Beavers. – Patrick Ebert
Colorado Rockies
Jonathan Gray – RHP
Although
it's hard to accurately predict a pitcher eventually recording triple
digits on the radar gun some day, it wasn't that hard to believe for
Gray. Already 6-foot-4 and 225-pounds coming out of high school, Gray
peaked at 93 mph after participating at a pair of Perfect Game/WWBA
tournament events in 2009. The second of which occurred in Jupiter,
Fla. at the WWBA World Championship.
Gray
opened the spring of 2013 as the 58th best overall draft prospect according to Perfect Game after being
ranked the 177th high school prospect three years earlier. In the months that followed
he not only established himself as a no-doubt first rounder, but he
also put himself squarely in the conversation for the first overall
pick, and was eventually named PG's top ranked prospect for the
draft.
With
an extra-large and powerful frame that evoked comparisons to big
league starter Josh Johnson, Gray routinely worked in the upper-90s
and frequently touched 100 mph in his starts for the Sooners. He
maintained that velocity exceptionally well deep into ballgames
thanks to his workhorse build, and also changed speeds effectively
between his upper-80s slider and surprisingly good changeup. He
proved to be nearly untouchable, going 10-3 with a 1.64 ERA, striking
out 147 and allowing only 83 hits and 24 walks in 126 innings of
work.
Here's
Gray's pre-draft report:
A
combination of better conditioning and improving mechanics have
vaulted Gray from a potential first round pick before the season to a
potential first overall pick when the Houston Astros kick off the
draft on June 6. Gray has been lighting up radar guns in the 95-100
range while peaking as high as 102 mph consistently all spring and
maintaining his velocity deep into starts. His slider, which some
scouts feel the Oklahoma coaching staff calls too frequently, is a
second plus pitch in the mid- to upper-80s with a hard and deep late
bite. Not only has Gray shown dominant stuff that has been compared
to Justin Verlander, he’s shown the ability to use it as well,
posting a 8-1, 1.20 record in 89 innings, with only 51 hits and 16
walks allowed to go with 104 strikeouts. Batters are hitting
.166-1-15 against Gray this year. Gray was a well-known prospect out
of Chandler, Okla. as a high schooler, topping out at 93 mph, but was
only picked in the 13th round (Royals) and again in the
10th round (Pirates) after attending Eastern Oklahoma JC
in 2011 before transferring to Oklahoma.
After
the Astros selected righthander Mark Appel with the first pick of the
2013 draft, and the Cubs took the Golden Spikes Award winner from
that year, Kris Bryant, the Rockies were thrilled to have Gray fall
in their lap with the third overall selection. – Patrick Ebert
Ryan McMahon – 3B
McMahon
was a stranger to national level baseball scouts until late in the
summer in 2012, prior to the start of his senior year in high school.
The
reason for that was a combination of playing quarterback and going to
Mater Dei High School in Santa Ana, California. Mater Dei is a
football powerhouse that produces future NFL players at almost every
position, but is occasionally referred to as "Quarterback High."
Five eventual NFL quarterbacks have attended the private Catholic
school, including Heisman Trophy winners John Huarte and Matt
Leinert.
While
McMahon was never a potential NFL quarterback, he did start 15 games
for Mater Dei between his junior and senior seasons, throwing for
1,863 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Mater
Dei also has a very successful baseball program and boasts present
and past alums such as Danny Espinosa, Sergio Santos, Matt Treanor
and Bobby Meachan. McMahon was a three-year starter for Mater Dei in
baseball and hit .405-4-32 during his senior season and .376-10-73
over his career.
The
only time McMahon appeared in a national level scouting event was at
the 2012 Area Code Games. The AC Games are held annually in early
August and McMahon was surely already deeply involved in football
workouts. Despite that, he put on a very impressive performance and
solidly put himself on the baseball prospect map as a potential high
round draft choice. I recall turning to a SoCal based scouting friend
during a McMahon at-bat and asking him "Do the area scouts here
know they have a potential first rounder?" My own notes from
that event were as about as glowing as possible:
All
American quality tools and athleticism, first round potential. Sweet
left handed swing, bat speed, looseness, has everything. Very
athletic at 3B. Top 50 player, resembles Corey Seager with a better
swing.
The
Rockies picked McMahon, who had a baseball commitment to Southern
California, with the 42nd overall pick near the top of the second
round and signed him to a $1,328,000 signing bonus that exactly
matched the slot for that pick. It was considered a pretty aggressive
selection at that time by the industry as a whole, but early
indications are that it was a very wise one as well. – David Rawnsley
San Diego Padres
Hunter Renfroe – OF
A
two-way talent whose tools were highlighted by an incredibly strong
arm and power potential at the plate, Renfroe participated in
back-to-back 18u WWBA National Championships in 2009 and 2010 playing
for the Mississippi Bandits. He received high marks at the time for
his defensive mechanics behind the plate, registering pop times in
the 1.90 range while using a compact, balanced swing to drive the
ball to the gaps.
He
also threw in the 88-91 mph range on the mound, although threw mostly
fastballs in the process, and his two-way career didn't continue past
his freshman season at Mississippi State when he made six relief
appearances for the Bulldogs.
Although
Renfroe hit .154 and .252 during his first two years in college, he
made an immediate impression the two summers that followed in the Cal
Ripken Collegiate League, being named the top prospect of the league
each year. During his second summer in the league Renfroe hit an
eye-popping .366 with 16 home runs in just 134 at-bats.
Even
though he touched the upper-90s on the mound and popped 1.7's from
behind the plate, Renfroe continued to post big numbers during his
junior year as an outfielder, with the prototypical power bat/arm
profile for right field. He recorded eight outfield assists while
hitting .345 with 16 home runs, and proved to be a star on the big
stage of the College World Series as well, hitting a booming
three-run home run in a 4-1 victory over Oregon State that carried
the Bulldogs to the championship round against the eventual champion
UCLA Bruins.
Here's
his report prior to the 2013 draft, when he was ranked PG's 11th overall prospect:
The
real Hunter Renfroe has stood up this spring, and there may not be a
player in the 2013 draft class who has a better overall tool-set than
the powerful Mississippi State right fielder. After playing sparingly
for the Bulldogs as a freshman and hitting a modest .252-4-25 as a
sophomore, the 6-foot-3, 215-pound Renfroe has busted out with a
monster junior season and leads his team with a .410 average, 14
homers and 45 RBIs … Though he is viewed as a legitimate big-league
prospect at any number of positions, Renfroe seemed to find a comfort
zone this spring for the Bulldogs as a right fielder, and his easy
transition to that position speaks to his superior athleticism and
versatility. There isn’t a tool in his bag that doesn’t rate as
above average but it’s his prodigious power at the plate, both for
distance and frequency, that truly sets him apart.
Renfroe's
continued development in college led to him being selected with the
13th overall pick in the 2013 draft by the Padres. – Patrick Ebert
Taylor Lindsey – 2B
A
well-known talent coming out of high school, Lindsey was ranked 76th in Perfect Game's high school class of 2010 player rankings. While
Lindsey called shortstop home in high school, his future position on
the field was somewhat in question as he lacked the ideal range and
at short. A
high-level athlete, Lindsey could play almost anywhere else on the
field, but it was his advanced lefthanded bat and overall approach
and the strength in his swing that drew the most attention.
Although
he wasn't a regular on the national travel circuit, Lindsey did
attend both the 2009 Area Code Games and the WWBA World Championship
in Jupiter, Fla. that same year. Here is a collection of reports from
his performance in Jupiter:
Patient
at plate, has pop on inner half, good bat speed … aggressive
hitter, rotational, swings uphill … closed slightly, hands high,
good approach, confident, very good quick hands, line drive hitter
with power potential, good drive off bat … stands tall, simple
approach.
And
the Area Code Games:
Very
nice swing, big bat speed, has lift, drives the ball deep, projects
more, squares up good stuff, looks and acts like a top level hitter.
Didn't stand out on defense, played some OF as well.
The
Los Angeles Angels used a supplemental first round pick on Lindsey in
the 2010 MLB Draft to steer him away from his home-state commitment to
Arizona State. – Patrick Ebert
San Francisco Giants
Christian Arroyo – SS/2B
Arroyo
was a well-known prospect at Hernando High School in Florida, playing
in close to 20 Perfect Game events beginning in his freshman year,
including the 2012 PG National Showcase, and also played for the 2012
USA National 18u team. He received a PG Grade of 10 at the National
Showcase and this scout wrote the following glowing report on him:
Medium
athletic build, good present strength. Right handed hitter,
outstanding plate coverage and hand/eye coordination, short crisp
swing with bat speed, squares up everything, no problems against plus
velocity, hard line drive contact to all fields, gap power, has
special ability to square up the ball. Second base tools defensively,
7.10 runner, good hands, stays balanced and light on his feet, arm
strength playable. Bat is special.
Despite
his impressive resume, Arroyo was generally not considered the type
of prospect that would interest many pro teams as a high draft out of
high school. While his bat was a special tool, his running speed and
arm strength, two prospect barometers for a middle-of-the-field
athlete, were simply average. Arroyo was seen by most as a player who
would go to Florida (he was an excellent student) and be an immediate
impact player for Head Coach Kevin O'Sullivan. In fact, O'Sullivan,
in private conversations before the draft, expressed shock that he
might lose Arroyo to the draft.
There
was talk through the late spring that there were a couple of teams
that were looking at Arroyo very high, but most of the industry
believed he more of a third to fifth round option and more likely
going to Florida. Some even thought his best future position was
behind the plate.
That
the Giants were the team that snapped Arroyo up with a first round
pick, the 25th overall, shouldn't have been surprising in retrospect.
The team selected high school middle infielder Nick Noonan with the
32nd overall pick in 2007 despite concerns about his ability to stay
at short. They also famously picked Joe Panik out of St. John's with
the 29th pick in 2011 despite concerns that the future playoff hero
didn't have a true plus tool. Both players were very intelligent
middle-of-the-field players whose best tool was their bat. The Giants
valued those two, along with Arroyo, for their ability to play
baseball and hit rather than their athleticism.
That
formula seems to have worked well for them thus far. – David Rawnsley
Steven Okert – LHP
Okert
was a two-way talent in high school, performing at a high level both
on the mound and at the plate for Rowlett High School in Texas. He
didn't play at a Perfect Game event until the summer after he had
already graduated from high school, the 2009 18u WWBA National
Championship, playing with the Frozen Ropes travel team organization.
With
a sturdy 6-foot-3, 195-pound build Okert offered intriguing power
potential as a first baseman and a power arm on the mound. At the 18u
WWBA National Championship he peaked at 88 mph, sitting comfortably
in the 86-88 mph range while throwing both a curveball and a changeup
in the mid-70s. It was noted at the event that his mechanics could be
brushed up as he threw across his body, and that he would need to
make sure to keep his focus on conditioning given his strong lower
half.
After
two years at Grayson County College, a junior college located in
Denison, Texas, Okert transferred to the University of Oklahoma
thanks to a significant spike in velocity. He now had the ability to
sit in the low- to mid-90s when used in short relief, a role that
seemed to suit him well despite having three pitches in his arsenal.
Here's his pre-draft report in 2012:
(Okert)
started the 2012 season in the Sooners rotation, but was moved to the
bullpen after five starts. Since then, Okert’s stuff has been
nothing short of outstanding with a fastball consistently in the
94-96 mph range, touching 97, to go with a solid slider and changeup.
A more-confident presence on the mound speaks to the greater comfort
zone he has achieved as a reliever. Okert has a smooth, easy delivery
and demonstrates good command of his fastball to both sides of the
plate, but it is still not refined overall as he has served up 33
walks in 69 innings this spring, while striking out 65 and posting a
6-6, 3.26 record. Okert’s overall package would seem to be a good
fit in the third- to fifth rounds, but the sheer power in his left
arm has scouts talking him up as high as the second round.
Although
he didn't go as high as the second round, the Giants did select Okert
in the fourth round that year, which marked the third time he was
drafted after being taken by the Brewers in the later rounds in both
2010 and 2011 after his freshman and sophomore years at Grayson
County College. – Patrick Ebert
Clayton Blackburn – RHP
2011
was the year of the high school pitcher in the state of Oklahoma.
Dylan Bundy was the fourth overall pick and had some scouts calling
him the best high school righthander they'd ever seen. Some didn't
even think Bundy was the best high school pitcher in the state,
believing Archie Bradley, who went with the seventh overall pick, had
a higher ceiling. Then there was Mike Fulmer, who went 44th overall,
and Adrian Houser, who was plucked up with the 69th overall pick.
Mason Hope got into the act in the fifth round.
As
perspective, there has been only one high school pitcher from
Oklahoma selected in the first five rounds since 2011.
Blackburn
was a known prospect in high school but certainly not a high profile
one. He went to the 2009 Perfect Game Sunshine South Showcase as a
6-foot-2, 210-pound primary first baseman and received a PG grade of
7.5 at that position. However, his report from the event noted the
following:
Also
pitched, strong arm, 82-84 mph fastball from OH release, good
extension, FB flashes hard boring action, hard CB spin, has potential
on the mound.
Blackburn
improved significantly over the course of the next year and was
invited to the 2010 Area Code Games. He pitched in the 87-90 mph
range with his characteristic feel for pitching. His notes from that
outing read:
Soft
build, young look, full delivery, full arm circle, pretty smooth
delivery, loose out front, H 3/4's release. Has arm strength, FB
straight, CB spin soft, nice changeup, knows how to work changeup
well.
Blackburn
was signed with Oklahoma when the Giants took a flier on him in that
loaded 2011 Oklahoma draft class in the 16th round and were able to
sign him for a surprisingly low $160,000 bonus. – David Rawnsley
Los Angeles Dodgers
Chris Anderson – RHP
Lightly
recruited out of Centennial Park High School just northeast of the
Twin Cities in Minnesota, Anderson participated in Perfect Game's
Midwest Scout League during the fall of his senior season to gain
additional exposure. Already a well-built athlete at 6-foot-3,
210-pounds, Anderson peaked at 91 mph during the fall, and then 92
the following spring, prior to attending Jacksonville University.
Anderson
grew another inch and added 15-20 pounds to his already workhorse
build while in college, and although he enjoyed two solid yet
unspectacular seasons in his first two years at Jacksonville, he
started to make a much bigger name for himself during the summer of
2012 when he pitched on the Cape. While his performance numbers may
not reflect his success, he was throwing in the low-90s on a regular
basis and started to find more consistency with his off-speed
pitches.
Those
pitches included a low- to mid-80s slider and a continually improving
changeup. By his junior year Anderson opened the spring by sitting in
the low- to mid-90s with his fastball, peaking a few ticks higher,
and effectively changing speeds between his improving secondary
pitches.
Frankie
Piliere has this to say about Anderson as part of his Draft Focus
report in the spring of 2013:
Flash
forward to this spring and we find a very different pitcher. His
velocity is up - he’s now sitting 92-95 mph and reaching as high as
96-97 mph. He’s also been locating exceptionally well. But, the
biggest difference has been with his secondary pitches. Anderson is
throwing a plus slider, as well as a potential solid-average
changeup, and he’s missing a lot of bats in the process. His slider
at 81-84 mph is becoming a legitimate above average offering, and the
changeup command is there in a way it hasn’t been before. In other
words, Anderson has gone from merely an intriguing power arm with a
durable frame, to a full-fledged three-pitch starter.
Anderson
was a well enough known draft commodity for the Cubs to take him in
the 35th round of the 2010 draft out of high school. That wasn't high enough
to lure him away from college, but it stands as enough proof that he
was on team's radars even before he exploded onto the prospect scene
two years later. That explosion led to him selected in the first
round by the Dodgers in 2013. – Patrick Ebert
Scott Schebler – OF
The
state of Iowa has had a steady trickle of high profile high school
prospects over the years, helped significantly by the Perfect Game
spring and fall leagues that give the state's young players a chance
to play during more than just their summer high school seasons. Scott
Schebler was definitely not one of those high profile prospects,
though.
Schebler
went to school at Prairie High School just outside of Cedar Rapids,
Perfect Game's home, and played five sports in high school and was
all-state in three of them. He started playing in the spring and fall
leagues immediately after he entered high school, along with
attending numerous showcases, including the 2007 National Underclass,
where he received a PG grade of 8. He had upped that grade to 9 by
the end of senior year, when the comments on his 2009 Midwest Top
Prospect Showcase report read:
Strong
athletic build, fairly mature. Aggressive hitting style, looking to
pull everything, has good bat speed, lift in swing, ball jumps hard
on contact, will hit HR's at the next level. 6.91 runner, moves well
in the outfield, raw arm strength, will improve throws with better
fundamentals. Bat is a plus.
Still,
Schebler was only the 719th ranked prospect on the PG Class of 2009
rankings and was signed to attend Des Moines Area Community College,
a well respected Division II junior college program.
At
DMACC, Schebler continued to do what he'd always done which was hit.
He posted a .446-20-82 line in 58 games as a freshman. When he ran
the 60-yard dash in 6.52 seconds at the PG Pre-Draft Showcase in
mid-May of 2010, it was noted how he was getting stronger and more
athletic, but teams still weren't excited. The Dodgers and area scout
Mitch Webster liked Schebler the best but only ventured a 26th round
pick on him. The Dodgers stepped up, though, signing Schebler away
from Wichita State with a $300,000 signing bonus. – David Rawnsley