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PREMIUM: Oklahoma aims for strong finish
Outside of the Red River Rivalry series between Oklahoma and Texas, there’s not a more important series on the national stage than Oregon State and UCLA.
The Beavers have been flawless in Pac-10 play with a 10-2 record, while the Bruins have improved as the season has progressed, but still are having consistency issues at times with just a 22-14 overall record.
OSU has yet to lose a Pac-10 series, while the Bruins had last weekend’s road series against Stanford in the bag before a late-inning meltdown.
While the Oklahoma-Texas and OSU-UCLA series highlights the national action, there’s plenty to look forward to this weekend. It’s particularly an important weekend in Conference USA, where Southern Mississippi travels to East Carolina, UAB travels to Tulane and Houston travels to Central Florida.
We take an in-depth look at the weekend in college baseball.
WHO’S HOT
Connecticut: The Huskies have been on quite a roll the past few weeks. They’ve won 12-straight games and have control of the Big East with a 13-2 record. They’re finally playing like the title contender we thought they’d be.
St. John’s: The Huskies aren’t the only team in the Big East sizzling hot. The Johnnies have won seven-straight games and are 9-1 in their last ten. They also are just two games behind the Huskies in the Big East standings.
Arizona State: The Oregon State series loss was a wakeup call for the Sun Devils. They’ve since won seven-straight games, including series wins over Washington State and California, and a midweek win over Arizona.
Kansas State: The Wildcats are right back in the NCAA postseason mix. They’ve won six-straight games, including a series sweep over Texas Tech, and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. KSU still has work to do in conference.
Virginia: When have the Cavaliers not been hot this season? They’ve won nine of their last 10 games, are 18-3 in conference and have an amazing 40-4 overall record. Anything but a trip to Omaha would be a disappointment for Virginia.
WHO’S NOT
Duke: The Blue Devils won’t be making a postseason appearance this season. The Devils once again have struggled, losing their last eight games and sitting in bad shape with a 1-9 record in their last 10 games.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes amazingly only are three games out of first place as the last place team in the Big Ten. Yeah, the league is that bad. Iowa, though, is struggling, sitting 3-7 in its last 10 and 15-23 overall.
George Mason: The Patriots typically make some noise in the Colonial Athletic, but that isn’t the case this spring. Mason is 3-7 in its last 10 games and is last in the league with a 4-17 record. It’s 17-26 overall.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: The Islanders once were considered a legitimate Southland Conference title contender. Now, they’re losers of nine of their last 10 games and are 11th in league with a 8-13 record. They’re 23-21 overall.
San Diego State: It seems like ancient history since the Aztecs reached the postseason with ace pitcher Stephen Strasburg leading the charge. This season, the Aztecs 12-29 overall, 6-9 in the Mountain West and losers of 9 of their last 10.
STORYLINES TO WATCH
Florida State and Miami butt heads: There’s little love lost when these two hard-nosed programs go at it on the diamond. The Seminoles have put together a solid season and ace pitcher Sean Gilmartin has been fantastic. Miami, meanwhile, captured the nation’s attention last weekend with a road series win over North Carolina, and hopes to add another impressive series to its resume this weekend. FSU needs this series to get strongly into the mix as a national seed, while the Hurricanes need the series to get in better position for an NCAA Regional host.
UCLA’s Trevor Bauer against Oregon State: Los Angeles plays home to one of the best series of the weekend as the Beavers hit the road to take on the Bruins. And while OSU pitcher Sam Gaviglio is having a phenomenal campaign, UCLA pitcher Trevor Bauer is the man to watch this weekend. His numbers are simply mind-boggling. Bauer has started 10 games and is 8-1 with a 1.42 ERA in 82 2/3 innings. He also has struck out 127 and walked 25 and teams are hitting him at a .145 clip. Our PG draft gurus have Bauer going as high as No. 4 to the Orioles.
Oklahoma tries to establish some consistency: The Sooners entered the season as slam dunk national title contenders. But instead of acting as such so far this spring, the Sooners – who are still a solid team – have had issues establishing consistency at times. The Sooners recorded a big series win over Nebraska last weekend and must find a way to take another step forward this weekend against the rival Texas Longhorns. OU needs the other starting pitchers to help out ace pitcher Michael Rocha, who has been fabulous this season.
Huge weekend in Conference USA: The C-USA title race has been highly competitive this season, and the postseason race is even more heated. That picture should become clearer this weekend with several important series on the docket. Southern Mississippi hits the road to face East Carolina, Houston hits the road to face Central Florida and Tulane plays host to red-hot UAB. The C-USA race already is highly competitive, but it hits another gear this weekend.
Clemson gets a huge test against Georgia Tech: The Tigers have been solid the past few weeks and continue to have a solid RPI with a much improved overall record. However, it’s important to note the Tigers have earned series wins over Wake Forest, Boston College and Maryland the past three weeks. In other words, they’ve beat up on the bottom of the barrel in the ACC. That changes this weekend when Georgia Tech, which has three solid starting pitchers, comes calling. Clemson could get back into the hosting mix with an incredibly strong finish.
SERIES TO WATCH
No. 24 Auburn at No. 1 South Carolina: The Tigers earned an important SEC series win over Ole Miss last weekend, but responded from the big series victory by having a poor midweek performance. Consistency and better pitching is the key as they face the top-ranked Gamecocks this weekend. The Gamecocks will be without outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. for at least a month, so it’ll be interesting to see how they rally around that setback. The Gamecocks will have enough pitching to get the job done this weekend.
No. 16 Oklahoma at No. 6 Texas: The Sooners have solid overall offensive numbers, but coach Sunny Golloway still is worried about their production against elite competition. That will be put to the test in a big way again this weekend as OU faces an elite Texas pitching staff. Another important key for OU is starting pitching. Ace Michael Rocha has been fabulous this season, but the other starters have left something to be desired. UT has the advantage on the mound and in the series.
Mississippi at No. 4 Florida: The Rebels didn’t play well last weekend against Auburn and things don’t get easier this weekend when they head to Gainesville, Fla., to face the Gators. UF is starting to get going offensively and certainly has a huge advantage in the pitching department with one of the nation’s elite pitching staff. Ole Miss definitely is a team that goes on emotion, so left-handed pitcher Matt Crouse getting off to a good start in the series opener is integral to their success this weekend. UF should win the series, and a sweep wouldn’t be surprising.
No. 22 Stanford at No. 10 Arizona State: The Cardinal certainly showed us something last weekend. They appeared to be down for the count in the series finale against UCLA, but rallied to beat the Bruins and take the series. Now, after a huge Pac-10 series win, the Cardinal hits the road to face red-hot Arizona State. The Sun Devils have won six-straight conference contests and have the edge in almost every important area. It’s going to take a consistent weekend across the board from the Cardinal to win this series. The Sun Devils have the edge at home.
No. 8 Florida State at No. 14 Miami: What a great series this will be. The Hurricanes made it an even bigger series by hitting the road last weekend and taking a huge series from North Carolina. Now both teams have their sights set on something big from a postseason standpoint. Miami definitely has the edge in the pitching department with FSU breaking in usual reliever Mike McGee as the Sunday starter. FSU, though, has the edge in the offensive department. Both teams are playing well, so Miami looks to be in good shape to take the series at home.
No. 7 Oregon State at No. 23 UCLA: This is expected to be a fantastic series. The Beavers have played an exceptional brand of baseball in Pac-10 play, while the Bruins are coming off a heartbreaking series loss to Stanford. OSU has the advantage at the plate, while UCLA has a slight advantage in the pitching department. The series is a virtual toss up, but we’re taking the Bruins at home with Cole and Bauer leading the charge on the mound.
No. 9 Georgia Tech at Clemson: The Yellow Jackets could use a road series win over the high-RPI Tigers to bolster their national seed resume. However, the series isn’t a must-win from that standpoint. For Clemson, though, it needs to win this series to have any chance at hosting at the end of the season. The Tigers have a solid record and RPI, but lack an elite postseason resume. Tech definitely has the starting pitching advantage, so the weekend boils down to the Tigers getting three quality starts. Pitching should propel the Yellow Jackets.
No. 25 Arkansas at Georgia: The Bulldogs have been an interesting case the entire season. They have an unimpressive 22-20 overall record, but likely would be in the NCAA postseason if the season ended today because of their insanely high strength of schedule. Georgia, though, needs to get something going with just a 4-6 record in its last 10 games. Arkansas, meanwhile, is coming off a bad road series loss to Kentucky and must bounce back after the offense scored just eight runs in three games against the Wildcats. Georgia likely pulls the slight upset this weekend.
UC Irvine at Cal State Bakersfield: Some will look at the names of the teams and wonder why this is a premier series, but here us out. UC Irvine certainly has a solid overall record, but it lacks marquee wins and has an extremely poor postseason resume. Bakersfield, meanwhile, was in great shape for a spot in the field of 64 before it got swept by UC Riverside last weekend, only to follow up that series with an 0-2 record against Kansas State in midweek action. Bakersfield has since dropped to 58 in the latest RPI ratings. Both teams need a big series win.
No. 18 Southern Mississippi at East Carolina: The Golden Eagles have a fantastic 30-10 overall record and still have national seed aspirations. However, it’ll take a strong finish, including series wins over ECU and Rice, to get the job done. East Carolina, meanwhile, suddenly is in good shape to make the NCAA postseason field having won back-to-back C-USA series over UCF and Houston. The Golden Eagles are ripe for an upset at ECU this weekend. The Pirates are playing a solid brand of baseball.
Kansas State at No. 20 Oklahoma State: This is one of the more intriguing series this weekend. The Wildcats have played a fabulous brand of baseball in the last week and are back in the postseason hunt. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, was in contention for an NCAA Regional host spot until it got swept by Texas A&M and dropped a midweek game to Wichita State. OSU desperately needs to bounce back this weekend, while a road series win over the Cowboys would put the Wildcats in much better shape from a postseason standpoint.
No. 19 Troy at Florida Atlantic: The Owls can only tie the Trojans for the Sun Belt lead with a series sweep this weekend. But more importantly, the Owls are in the NCAA postseason hunt, but need a marquee series win with just an RPI of 50. The Owls typically have been hot and cold this spring. The Trojans, meanwhile, likely are out of the NCAA Regional hosting mix, and merely are playing for seeding down the stretch. Troy has been the better team and is the pick in this series, but don’t be surprised if the Owls pull of the upset.
Hawaii at No. 11 Fresno State: We’ll find out a lot about the Rainbows this weekend. They have a plethora of talent with guys such as Kolten Wong and Lenny Linsky leading the way. However, they took a huge step back last weekend with a series loss to Valparaiso. The Rainbows hope to rectify the situation this weekend with a road series win over the Bulldogs. Fresno, though, has been pretty consistent this spring and is expected to win the series at home.
UAB at Tulane: This is pretty much Tulane’s last hurrah if it wants to be included in the NCAA postseason picture. The Green Wave has a 4-8 league record with a 24-17 overall record. More importantly, they don’t have a great RPI. UAB, meanwhile, earned a huge home series win over Rice last weekend, are rising in the RPI and is tied with East Carolina for fifth in C-USA with an 8-7 mark. The Blazers would be in good shape from a postseason standpoint with a road series win over the Green Wave this weekend.
Houston at Central Florida: The Knights are in the NCAA postseason field this week after a solid week that included a win over Florida. However, their situation is still fluid with just a 6-9 mark in Conference USA. The Knights need to take care of the Cougars at home. Houston, meanwhile, doesn’t have a bad RPI and currently is tied for third in C-USA. However, the Cougars only have a 20-22 overall record and must get above .500 overall to be considered for the NCAA postseason field. Both teams need to take care of business this weekend.
TALKING POSTSEASON
Miami: The Hurricanes are an interesting case from a postseason standpoint heading down the stretch. They could get back in the NCAA Regional hosting mix with a strong finish, but it’ll take work. The ‘Canes have an RPI of 11 with a 28-13 overall record. They lack some key points in their postseason resume, though. The ‘Canes are just 2-7 vs. RPI Top 25, 7-8 vs. RPI Top 50 and 17-11 vs. RPI Top 100. UM must improve its record against RPI Top 25 beginning this weekend to have a chance at hosting.
Clemson: While we’re talking about the Hurricanes, it’s also important to talk about the Tigers. The Tigers and Hurricanes are pretty much in the same boat. Clemson has an overall record of 27-14 with a fantastic RPI of 12. However, as with the Hurricanes, its postseason resume has major flaws. The Tigers are 3-8 vs. RPI Top 25 teams, 6-10 vs. RPI Top 50 and 14-12 vs. RPI Top 100. The Tigers, as with the Hurricanes, have a lot of work to do the final few weeks of the regular season.
Oklahoma: The Sooners moved back in as an NCAA Regional host this week as a result of a series win over Nebraska and a Rice road series loss to UAB. OU, though, has absolutely no room for error down the stretch. The Sooners have an RPI of 20 and an overall record of 30-11. However, their resume isn’t worthy of being in “lockdown” mode when it comes to a host site. OU is 3-6 vs. RPI Top 25, 10-8 vs. RPI Top 50 and 13-8 vs. RPI Top 100. A road series win over Texas this weekend would do wonders for OU’s resume.
Kansas State: The “coming out of nowhere” award goes to the Wildcats this week. It only was a couple of weeks ago the Wildcats were a non-factor in the postseason picture. But after sweeping Texas Tech last weekend and taking a pair of games from Cal State Bakersfield, the Wildcats are up to 27 in the RPI with a 26-15 overall record. KSU still has work to do in the Big 12 standings and is 3-6 vs. RPI Top 25, 7-10 vs. RPI Top 50 and 14-13 vs. RPI Top 100. KSU likely would be in if the season ended today, but there’s zero room for error.
Arizona: The Wildcats entered the season with incredibly high expectations, but there’s a good chance they’ll miss the NCAA postseason. The Wildcats have failed to take care of business in some of their important series, and have dropped down to 37 in the RPI with an overall record of 24-16. Furthermore, Arizona is 3-7 vs. RPI Top 25, 6-10 vs. RPI Top 50 and 9-14 vs. RPI Top 100. The Wildcats not reaching the postseason would be a severe disappointment.
Kendall Rogers is the managing editor of college baseball for Perfect Game USA and has covered the sport for over 10 seasons. He can be reached at kendall@perfectgame.org