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PREMIUM FEATURE: Michigan State's big rise, Big Ten's RPI problem
It’s crunch time in college baseball.
Those that haven’t earned marquee series wins are running out of time to do so, and those that have earned those types of series wins are aiming for an NCAA bid, NCAA Regional host bid, or in the best-case scenario, a national seed.
TCU and Oklahoma State step out of conference this weekend for a series that could have big-time implications on the NCAA Regional host pecking order.
The Horned Frogs and Cowboys are fighting teams such as Arkansas, Oklahoma and Rice for the final host spot.
Elsewhere around the country, California heads to Oregon State for an important Pac-10 showdown, while it’s another big weekend in Conference USA with Central Florida’s non-conference trip to Florida State leading the way.
We take an in-depth look at the weekend in college baseball.
WHO’S HOT
Eastern Michigan: Eagles coach Jay Alexander is working his magic down the stretch. The Eagles have won 11-straight games and are tied with Central Michigan for the lead in the MAC Western Division.
Florida International: The Panthers appeared to be out of the postseason mix just a few weeks ago, but they’ve roared back with nine-straight victories to move into a tie for second in the Sun Belt. FIU is 9-1 in its last 10 and 29-16 overall.
South Carolina: The Gamecocks continue to accrue injuries, but that doesn’t seem to matter too much. The Gamecocks are 9-1 in their last 10, have won six-straight games and have a fantastic 36-8 overall record.
San Francisco: The Dons weren’t expected to contend for the WCC title just a few weeks ago, but they’ve stormed back and compiled an impressive 10-2 mark in league play. USF is 9-1 in its last 10 and has won seven-straight contests.
College of Charleston: Remember when the Cougars were an afterthought in the Southern Conference race? Yeah, that was a few weeks ago. The Cougars are second in the SoCon, are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have won seven-straight contests. Don’t be surprised if the Cougars make their way to the postseason.
WHO’S NOT
Indiana: The Hoosiers were a slam-dunk Big Ten contender just a couple of weeks ago, but they’ve since lost seven-straight contests and are 3-7 in their last 10 contests. Fortunately for IU, the Big Ten automatic bid will come down to which team wins the conference tournament.
Notre Dame: Irish head coach Mik Aoki expected to experience some struggles in his first season. Aoki’s Irish are down to eighth in the Big East standings with a 7-10 record after losing 10-straight games and three of their last ten.
Cal State Northridge: Matt Curtis isn’t having the inaugural season he wanted to have as head coach. Curtis’ Matadors are last in the Big West with a 1-11 record, 1-9 in their last 10 games and have lost six-straight contests.
Bradley: The Braves aren’t having the type of season they were hoping for. BU is near the bottom of the Missouri Valley standings with a dismal 2-10 league record. It’s also 1-9 in its last 10 games and has dropped six-straight games.
South Alabama: It’ll be interesting to see what happens with the Jaguars when Mark Calvi takes over full time. For now, the Jaguars are an afterthought in the Sun Belt with a 9-12 record, a record of 3-7 in their last 10 games, and a seven-game losing streak.
STORYLINES TO WATCH
Someone emerges as Big Ten leader: The Big Ten might not get much press this season because it lacks an impressive RPI. But the league is still important on the college baseball stage and the series between Purdue and Michigan State this weekend will determine who takes control of the conference standings down the stretch. The Boilermakers are 30-13 and playing an excellent brand of baseball, while the Spartans are 27-14 and have the highest RPI in the Big Ten. The series in East Lansing, Mich., should be a dandy.
LSU … corner turned or aberration?: The Tigers roared back in the series opener against Kentucky last weekend to beat the Wildcats. The Tigers, as a result, played with a high level of confidence and swept the Wildcats in impressive fashion. Now, the series sweep could very well be the result of Kentucky just not being very good. But LSU’s surge last weekend is a big reason why its series at Alabama will be interesting to watch. The Tigers are 7-14 in SEC play and need a strong finish to reach the NCAA postseason. Interestingly, Alabama coach Mitch Gaspard announced earlier this week all three games of the LSU series are free of charge with a donation to the Alabama tornado relief fund.
TCU and Oklahoma State butt heads: Not a lot of people are talking about this series because it’s a non-conference matchup. But the Horned Frogs have a stiff test this weekend against the Cowboys, who are very solid at home. The Horned Frogs have a slightly better postseason resume than the Cowboys, but there’s no doubt both are aiming for Rice and that final NCAA Regional host spot. One of the two teams likely will be eliminated from the hosting discussion this weekend, while the other makes hosting an NCAA Regional more of a reality. It’s one of the more important series of the season.
Another big weekend in Conference USA: It’s a good sign your conference is in good shape when it’s routinely featured in the storylines of the weekend. Yes, another huge weekend of action is on the horizon in the C-USA. The biggest series of the weekend is a non-conference matchup between Central Florida and Florida State, one the Knights desperately need to win to get solidly on the good side of the bubble. Other important series to watch this weekend include UAB at Southern Miss, Rice at Houston and Memphis at Tulane. UAB, Houston and Memphis are fighting for postseason bids, while Southern Miss is aiming for a national seed and Rice hopes to solidify one of the 16 NCAA Regional host sites.
The first postseason bid will be notched: It’s not often we have a reason to jock the Ivy League, but this weekend is the exception. The first automatic bid to the NCAA postseason will be recorded this weekend when Dartmouth takes on Princeton in a three-game series for the Ivy League title and auto bid. The Big Green won the automatic bid last season and actually performed at a high level in the Coral Gables Regional. The Big Green is 2-0 against Princeton this season and has a solid 29-10 overall record. Princeton, meanwhile, actually played LSU tough earlier this season and has an even 21-21 record. Dartmouth definitely has the experience and advantage in the Ivy League title series.
SERIES TO WATCH
No. 4 Florida at Arkansas: The Gators are in fantastic shape for a national seed with 32 wins vs. RPI Top 100 teams, but they’re in a three-way tie with South Carolina and Vanderbilt atop the SEC standings. For that reason and more, this is a very important series. The Razorbacks desperately need to get back on track after dropping their last two series to Kentucky and Georgia. The Hogs are on the outside looking in when it comes to being a postseason host, but they aren’t out of the mix.
Dallas Baptist at No. 9 Texas A&M: You’re probably wondering how the heck this is a series to watch. But it’s a big one from a postseason standpoint. The Patriots have earned several impressive midweek wins this spring, but they lack a marquee series to get them in the NCAA postseason. Beating the Aggies this weekend would fill that void. For the Aggies, they dropped out of the top eight national seeds after a bad road series loss to Missouri and hope to rebound against the Patriots this weekend. The Aggies likely are out of the mix for a national seed with a series loss to DBU this weekend.
No. 1 South Carolina at Mississippi: The Gamecocks are in excellent shape for a national seed and continued to be tied with UF and Vandy for the top spot in the SEC standings. They must take care of business this weekend to keep pace. This series is even more important to the Rebels, who are on the bad side of the bubble entering the weekend with no marquee series win and a dismal overall resume. Taking a series from the Gamecocks definitely would help Ole Miss’ case.
No. 5 Texas at Nebraska: The Longhorns and Huskers have developed quite the rivalry over the past few years, but the rivalry will come to an end with this baseball series as the Huskers head to the Big Ten in the fall. The ‘Horns moved in as a national seed last week and hopes to continue their consistent ways. Nebraska, meanwhile, is a long shot to reach the postseason despite a 54 RPI. The Huskers are 6-11 in the Big 12 and likely needs series wins over UT, Texas A&M and Missouri to finish conference play to make the postseason.
Long Beach State at No. 8 Arizona State: The Dirtbags still are a long shot to reach the NCAA postseason, and likely must take series from Arizona State, Cal State Fullerton and UC Irvine to make the field of 64. However, there’s no question they still at least have a chance with an RPI now in the 60s. Taking care of the Sun Devils this weekend will be a tough chore. ASU is coming off a pair of midweek games against BYU and hopes to continue its consistent ways. LBSU is fighting to be included in the postseason picture while ASU hopes to hold on to a national seed.
Central Florida at No. 7 Florida State: This series really couldn’t come at a better time for the Knights. They have a marquee series win over Rice this season, but still are on the bad side of the bubble entering the weekend. Earning a road series win over Florida State would be the push that definitely would get them over the hump. While the Knights hope to clearly stay in the postseason hunt, the Seminoles increased their chances of a national seed with a road series win over Miami last weekend. The ‘Noles aim to stay the course against the Knights.
No. 21 California at No. 6 Oregon State: The Golden Bears just hope not to stumble too much down the stretch. They’re not in the mix for an NCAA Regional host, so they’re simply playing for seeding. The Bears bounced back from a tough weekend against Arizona State with a series win over Oregon last weekend. Now the Bears, who have had consistency issues at times, have the tough chore of facing the Beavers this weekend. OSU is coming off a huge road series win over UCLA and is in fantastic shape for a national seed.
No. 11 TCU at No. 17 Oklahoma State: We still have a sneaking suspicion the Southwest part of the country will get another NCAA Regional host outside of Texas and Texas A&M. That means TCU and Oklahoma State are in the mix with Rice and Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs already have a solid record, but have a chance to earn a huge road marquee series win . OSU, meanwhile, has a marquee series win over rival Oklahoma, but still has some holes in its postseason resume.
Cal Poly at UC Irvine: The Mustangs actually were in the mix for an NCAA postseason bid a couple of weeks ago. But after dropping a tough road series to Long Beach State, the Mustangs are out of the mix for now. That could change again this weekend with a road series win over UC Irvine. For Irvine, winning last weekend’s series against Cal State Bakersfield was huge, but it doesn’t have an impressive enough resume to slip down the stretch. This is an important series for both teams from a postseason and Big West title standpoint.
UAB at No. 13 Southern Mississippi: The Golden Eagles could conceivably earn a national seed with an incredibly strong finish, including a home series win over Rice to end the regular season. But for now, they must take care of business in series like this one to make that a possibility. As it stands, USM currently is in great shape to earn an NCAA Regional host. For the Blazers, this weekend’s series at USM means a lot. The Blazers are narrowly on the good side of the bubble and already have a series win over Rice to their credit. However, a road series win over the Golden Eagles would do wonders for their resume. It’s a big weekend for both.
UCLA at Oregon: The Bruins still have an adequate enough conference record and RPI to not be worried about not reaching the NCAA postseason at this juncture. However, that confident feeling could change if the Bruins drop a road series to Oregon this weekend as they’ve dropped their last two series to Oregon State and Stanford. Oregon, meanwhile, is an extreme long shot to make the field of 64, and essentially is playing the spoiler role down the stretch.
Rice at Houston: This is a huge series from a rivalry standpoint, and it’s also a huge series from a postseason standpoint. The Owls are vying for an NCAA Regional host and hope to bounce back from a conference series loss to UAB a couple of weekends ago. Houston, meanwhile, is an interesting team to watch the final few weeks of the season. The Cougars, at 22-23, need to get above .500 to have a chance to reach the NCAA postseason, but they actually are tied with the Owls for second in C-USA (behind Southern Miss) at 9-6.
Purdue at Michigan State: This series doesn’t really have postseason ramifications since both teams likely will have to win the Big Ten tournament to reach the NCAA postseason, but it’s still important in the conference title race. The Boilermakers and Spartans are knotted up atop the Big Ten standings with identical 10-5 records. Purdue, though, has an RPI of 118 while MSU has an RPI of 78. The two teams have similar offenses and this should be a fantastic series with the Spartans getting a slight edge at home.
Georgia at Auburn: This is an important series for both teams from a postseason standpoint. The Bulldogs have compiled an impressive SEC record, but that doesn’t diminish the fact they’re just 24-21 overall, meaning they have little room for error since you can’t reach the NCAA postseason at .500 overall. The same situation applies to Auburn, which has an RPI of 19 and a weak 23-21 overall record. The loser of this series will be sweating the final few weeks of the regular season.
LSU at Alabama: The Tigers at least reentered the postseason discussion (because of their high RPI) with a home series sweep over Kentucky last weekend. Now, with a 7-14 SEC record, we’ll see if they can hit the road and take a series from Alabama. The Crimson Tide earned an emotional and huge road series win over Mississippi State last weekend, and hopes to solidify their postseason resume against the Tigers this weekend. Alabama has the edge at home, as it returns to Tuscaloosa, Ala., for the first time since a tornado ripped through the city’s center.
TALKING POSTSEASON
Southern Mississippi: Several emails have arrived this week asking about the Golden Eagles’ chances of earning a national seed. Well, it’s safe to say the Golden Eagles must finish the regular season on an incredibly high note and also do well in the conference tournament. The biggest issue facing the Eagles right now their record vs. RPI Top 25. The Eagles are 0-1 in that area. Otherwise, the Eagles are 9-6 vs. RPI Top 50 and 19-10 vs. RPI Top 100. For now, it’s a long shot because USM has so much work to do vs. RPI Top 25.
Dallas Baptist: The only independent in the mix for an NCAA postseason bid, the Patriots pretty much have to win the two remaining games against Texas A&M this weekend to have a chance at a bid. The Patriots entered the series with an RPI in the 70s, and are at 78 after losing to the Aggies in the series opener. DBU has a decent resume, but it also has a SOS over 200. The Patriots are 3-2 vs. RPI Top 25, 7-4 vs. RPI Top 50 and 8-8 vs. RPI Top 100. Again, not a bad resume, but that SOS is going to hurt them on Selection Monday no matter how they finish the season.
Long Beach State: Cal Poly was the third Big West team in the mix for a postseason bid last week, but the Mustangs hit the road last weekend and dropped two of three to Long Beach State. As a result, the Dirtbags have effectively taken their spot in the mix. They aren’t in good shape, though. The Dirtbags have an RPI of 66 with a 23-19 overall record. They also have work to do with their resume. LBSU is 4-6 vs. RPI Top 25, 5-10 vs. RPI Top 50 and 10-12 vs. RPI Top 100. The Dirtbags must improve in all three of those areas.
LSU: Should or shouldn’t the Tigers be in the NCAA postseason if the season ended today? We went with no this week, but others would disagree. The Tigers have a solid RPI of 24 with a 29-17 overall record. However, that’s where their resume stops being impressive. The Tigers are 7-14 (10th) in the SEC, are 6-13 vs. RPI Top 25, 9-14 vs. RPI Top 50 and 14-15 vs. RPI Top 100. LSU has a chance to get in the postseason field with a couple of solid weekends to end the regular season, but the NCAA would be setting a bad precedent by letting a team seven games below .500 in conference in the postseason.
Miami: With Stetson, Florida and Florida State in good shape for NCAA Regional hosts, that leaves many wondering where Miami stands. Well, the Hurricanes aren’t in good shape to earn a host spot and will have to take care of business down the stretch and in the ACC tournament to have a chance. The ‘Canes have a fantastic RPI of 10 with a 29-15 overall record, but the rest of the their resume has some gaping holes. For instance, the ‘Canes are just 3-9 vs. RPI Top 25, 8-10 vs. RPI Top 50 and 20-13 vs. RPI Top 100. UM’s record vs. RPI Top 100 is solid, but record vs. 25 and 50 must improve.
Kendall Rogers is the managing editor of college baseball for Perfect Game USA and has covered the sport for over 10 seasons. He can be reached at kendall@perfectgame.org