Minors : : General
Top Prospects: Atlanta Braves
Published: Friday, February 17, 2012
General
Manager:
Frank Wren
Minor
League Director:
Bruce Manno
Scouting
Director:
Tony DeMacio
AAA:
Gwinnett Braves (International League) 78-65
AA:
Mississippi Braves (Southern League) 61-79
Hi
A:
Lynchburg Hillcats (Carolina League) 60-78
Low
A: Rome
Braves (South Atlantic League) 60-80
Rookie
Adv.:
Danville Braves (Appalachian League) 39-29
Rookie:
GCL Braves (Gulf Coast League) 24-34
Dominican:
DSL Braves (Dominican Summer League) 34-35
System
Overview
The
Braves suffered through a significant collapse last September,
blowing an 8.5 game lead in the NL wild card in the last 23 days of
the season and getting swept at home in the final series of the year
to hand the wild card slot to the eventual World Series Champion St.
Louis Cardinals.
While
the Braves overworked bullpen received a sizable share of the blame
at the time, falling out of playoff contention was hardly their
fault. The starting pitching couldn’t make it past the sixth
inning, the hitters, and especially the outfielders, couldn’t hit
and manager Fredi Gonzalez couldn't catch a break.
General
Manager Frank Wren reacted to the end of the 2011 season in perhaps
the wisest way he possibly could during the offseason: He did almost
nothing. He did remove significant money off the payroll by trading
RHP Derek Lowe to the Indians, and allowed SS Alex Gonzalez to leave
via free agency while resigning veteran utility backup Eric Hinske.
There
is really nothing that Wren could do to impact the Braves pitching
staff aside from orchestrating Lowe’s departure. Atlanta has a
wealth of riches when it comes to pitching, and if starters such as
Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrgens stay healthy in 2012, the team’s
problem will be that it has too many starting pitchers and will have
to leave top prospects such as Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado in
AAA until a spot opens up. Their situation is very similar to what
has developed in Tampa, where the Rays have benefited from leaving
top prospects such as Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore in the minor
leagues a year longer than most organizations can afford to because
of the depth at the Major League level.
The
bullpen, behind RHP Craig Kimbrel and LHPs Jony Venters and Eric
O’Flaherty, was the best in baseball heading into September and
should again rank among the best and most versatile as well.
Where
the Braves should make or break themselves in 2012 will be with their
offense. No starter except young 1B Freddie Freeman and perhaps
iconic 3B Chipper Jones could have been happy with their season as a
whole. C Brian McCann was hurt down the stretch and a trio of 2010
All-Stars – CF Michael Bourn, RF Jason Heyward and LF/3B Martin
Prado – were closer to replacement level in 2011 than All-Star
level. How those three players perform will be closely watched early
in the season, as the Braves do not have the depth in field that they
do in the pitching staff.
The
bottom line is that while the Braves have only made the playoffs once
in the last six years (2010), they have made to transition to a new
post-Bobby Cox, post-John Schuerholz, post-Big Three era with an
impressive talent base, especially on the mound, and high
expectations. They’ve won 91 and 89 games the past two seasons and
the 2012 team is arguably better and deeper than either of those two
clubs heading into the season. They may not be the old Braves
organization, but they are certainly good enough.
2011
Draft
Baseball
fans are finally getting used to the concept that this is a different
Braves scouting department than existed under leadership of first
Paul Snyder and then Roy Clark for the better part of 30 years. Part
of that is due to a different (i.e. more conservative) scouting
philosophy from veteran scouting director Tony DeMacio, but it also
stems from noticeably tighter purse strings on the part of Braves
ownership.
DeMacio
has done an effective job in finding value in his two drafts at the
helm of the Braves scouting department. However, the Braves have
spent less money during those two drafts than any organization except
the notoriously parsimonious Chicago White Sox. They have picked a
grand total of two high school players during the first 10 rounds in
2010-2011 and drafted a fifth-year college senior, a fourth-year
college senior and a fourth-year college junior with picks six
through eight in 2011, signing all three for less than slot money.
The
organization’s spending in Latin America, the site of some of their
most successful scouting work over the past decade, has also declined
significantly.
The
Braves first round pick, Florida State LHP Sean Gilmartin, went just
about where he was expected to be picked at No. 28. If he stays
healthy, Gilmartin is the type of prospect who is an almost certainty
to reach the big leagues as a number four or five type starter due to
his present skills and tools. The reality is that the Braves have a
backload of young starting pitchers who fill in the top of a rotation
and acquiring talent like Gilmartin provides outstanding depth and
flexibility down the road.
Some
wondered about the Braves second round pick, SS Nick Ahmed, not
because of his talent level and where he was drafted, but because
shortstop is the deepest position in the Braves minor league system.
Ahmed, however, is a plus makeup player who has the athleticism to
play literally all over the field if his bat proves to be Major
League caliber.
There
was speculation during the spring that RHP J.R. Graham, the Braves
fourth round pick out of Santa Clara, could sneak into the top 50
picks after he started pitching in the upper 90s out of the bullpen
while touching triple digits. The Braves chose to send Graham out as
a starter and he threw well in that role (5-2, 1.72 in 57 innings),
although a return to the bullpen at the upper levels is always a
possibility.
In
fact, the bullpen seemed to be a major focus of the Braves 2011
draft. RHPs Mark Lamm in the sixth round and Cody Martin in the
seventh were both college seniors and established relievers with
mature stuff. Martin was outstanding in his debut, going 1-0, 1.08,
9 saves with 49 strikeouts and only 4 walks in 33 innings between
rookie ball and low A.
The
one pick where the Braves reached and overpaid was for Lamm’s
teammate and closer at Vanderbilt, RHP Navery Moore. The hard
throwing Moore only threw 51 innings in three years at Vanderbilt
after suffering arm problems as a high school senior, but the Braves
signed him for $400,000 in the 14th round.
If
there is a true sleeper on the Braves draft list it could be eighth
round pick 2B Tommy La Stella, a fourth-year junior from Coastal
Carolina. The left handed hitting La Stella has always been a
performer and hit .328-9-40/.944 OPS in Low A after signing.
Top
10 Prospects
1.
RHP Julio Teheran
– Baseball-reference player profile
A
native of Columbia, Teheran has made incredibly quick progress
through the Braves system since he signed as a 16-year old in 2007.
He swept through low A, high A and AA as a 19-year old in 2010, then
went 15-3, 2.55 in 24 starts in AAA in 2011 as a 20-year old.
Teheran also made his big league debut just four months after his
20th birthday, making a couple of spot starts in May before being called
up again in September. His lack of immediate success in the big
leagues (1-1, 5.03, 21 hits in 20 innings, only 10 Ks) seems to have
unaccountably left some analysts with a negative impression, which
ignores completely the context of Teheran’s age and experience.
Also contributing was fellow top prospect Matt Moore’s more
stunning debut and subsequent lucrative long term contract, with the
experts forgetting that Teheran is 19 months younger than Moore.
Teheran
has two present plus Major League pitches in a mid 90s fastball that
touches 97-98 mph with good life and an outstanding change up that he
uses with the confidence of a veteran hurler. He will throw both a
curveball and a slider at times, but neither has consistent quality
spin and action to it, and improving on one or both of these pitches
is the final piece to Teheran’s puzzle. In fact, it’s easy to
see the issues that Teheran has with his breaking ball just by
looking at his minor league strikeout totals. He punched out 159
hitters in 142 innings between A and AA in 2010 by simple
overpowering younger hitters, but saw his strikeouts go down to 122
in 145 innings in AAA last year and 10 in 20 innings in the big
leagues.
Teheran
compares very closely to former Reds All-Star RHP Mario Soto in
pitching style and background.
2.
RHP Arodys Vizcaino
– Baseball-reference player profile
Vizcaino
was acquired from the Yankees in the Javier Vazquez trade in 2009,
one of two of the Braves Top 10 prospects (along with Tyler
Pastornicky) who were acquired as part of big league trades, a
testament to Atlanta’s professional scouting staff. He reached the
Major Leagues in August after only 269 innings of minor league
experience under his belt.
Vizcaino
has been a starter throughout his professional career but moved into
the bullpen when called up and was impressive in his new role. A
strongly built 6-0/190, Vizcaino has a consistent mid 90s fastball
that can touch the upper 90s, and a power curveball that is a big
league strikeout pitch. Although he walked 9 hitters in 17 big
league innings, throwing strikes has never been a challenge for
Vizcaino as a starter, and he projects plus command in either role.
While
Vizcaino can unquestionably develop into a starting pitcher on a
winning big league team, the Braves depth of starting pitching means
that his best present role is probably in a set-up role. In
addition, the Braves other top prospect pitchers (Julio Teheran,
Randall Delgado, Sean Gilmartin) are all less ideally suited to
pitching out of the bullpen than Vizcaino.
3.
SS Andrelton Simmons
– Baseball-reference player profile
Simmons
was an unknown when he first appeared at Western Oklahoma Junior
College in the fall of 2009. The native of Curacao quickly wowed
area scouts that fall and the scouting talk quickly centered on what
position Simmons should play as a professional instead of how high he
would be drafted. While Simmons regularly pitched in the mid 90s out
of the bullpen for Western Oklahoma, and some teams liked him better
as a pitcher, the Braves picked him in the second round in June, 2010
and sent him out as a shortstop.
If
anything, Simmons has been better than advertised. His defense is
close to big league level already with only consistency standing in
the way of him being a plus Major League shortstop on the field. And
although he has limited extra base power and rarely takes a walk,
Simmons led the Carolina League in hitting at .311 in 2011, showing
that he has the potential to contribute on offense as well.
4.
RHP Randall Delgado
– Baseball-reference player profile
One
of two Panamanians in the Braves Top 10 list, Delgado is also the
most unheralded of the Braves top prospects. He doesn’t have the
classic power stuff of Julio Teheran or Arodys Vizcaino, but is more
of a three pitch craftsman who uses his curveball and change up
frequently while spotting his low 90s fastball to different parts of
the plate. Without developing plus/plus command in the future,
Delgado doesn’t have the No. 1/2 starter potential that those two
do, but he seems poised for a long big league career, much like the
Yankees' Ivan Nova.
5.
SS Tyler Pastornicky
– Baseball-reference player profile
Pastornicky
played in over a dozen Perfect Game events as a Florida teenager and
developed the reputation among the PG staff as being one of the
biggest gamers that we’ve come across over the last decade. He had
good but not great physical tools, with 6.7 speed in the 60 and a
fringy plus arm in the infield on the big league grading scale.
However, not only did he always outperform his tools, but he played
the game with such obvious joy that it was impossible not to like
him. Part of those intangibles undoubtedly came from learning the
game from his father, Cliff, who had a brief cup of coffee with the
Royals in 1983 and has been an area scout in Florida since 1989.
The
Blue Jays drafted Pastornicky in the fifth round in 2008 and traded
him to the Braves late in 2010 as part of the Yunel Escobar/Alex
Gonzalez trade. His progress with the Braves has been so quick that
barring an injury or complete collapse in spring training, it looks
as if Pastornicky with be Atlanta’s Opening Day shortstop in 2012.
His physical ceiling is comparable to a less physical Cliff
Pennington (A’s), but Pastornicky has a very high chance potential
to reach that ceiling.
6.
C Christian Bethancourt
– Baseball-reference player profile
Bethancourt
has become a lightning rod even as a 20-year old A ball prospect for
his approach to the game and overall attitude, which is by all
accounts inconsistent at best. Of course, no one would care if the
Panamanian catcher wasn’t among the most physically talented
catchers in the game. He has all the tools to be an All-Star level
receiver at the big league level and Brian McCann’s eventual
successor in the Braves line up.
Aside
from the mental aspects of the day-to-day game, the one thing that
could potentially limit Bethancourt at the upper levels is that he
hasn’t seen a pitch he doesn’t think he can hit, and walked only
11 times in almost 400 at bats in 2011.
7.
LHP Sean Gilmartin
– Baseball-reference player profile
There
is very little practical difference between Gilmartin and 2009 Braves
first rounder Mike Minor, and the comparison between the two probably
already sounds like a worn cliché to Braves fans. While Minor might
have a bit more juice to his fastball, they are both very polished
left handers with plus change ups, good enough breaking balls and an
advanced ability to pitch. Gilmartin’s path to the Major Leagues
will be a bit more need dependent than Minor’s, as Atlanta projects
more upper level pitching depth for 2012-13 than they did for
2010-2011, but he will likely be no less ready to compete.
One
thing Braves fans will appreciate about Gilmartin is his all around
athleticism and baseball skills that will remind them of the Big
Three of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. Gilmartin was a
two-way standout at Florida State and will contribute with the bat as
a starter, along with being an above average fielder.
8.
3B Edward Salcedo
– Baseball-reference player profile
Salcedo
is older and less experienced that the normal Class A Dominican
prospect, as he spent two years establishing his paperwork and
birthday after becoming eligible to sign. The Braves eventually
inked him to a $1.6M bonus in 2009.
The
6-3/190 right handed hitter has the best raw hitting tools in the
Braves system, with excellent bat speed and 20-plus home run
potential. He’s grown rapidly as a hitter since signing and shows
more plate discipline and hitting awareness than most young Dominican
hitters. A shortstop originally, Salcedo has outgrown the middle of
the field but should have the tools to stay at the hot corner with
work. He and fellow prospect Joey Terdoslavich will receive
increased scrutiny from the Braves fans in 2012 as future Hall of
Famer Chipper Jones’ career in Atlanta continues to wind down.
9.
RHP J.J. Hoover
– Baseball-reference player profile
Hoover
has dominated at every level since the Braves drafted him in the 10th round in 2008 out of Calhoun (Ala.) CC as part of their famed “Junior
College Draft” (Craig Kimbrel, Brett Oberholtzer, Adam Milligan,
etc). The Braves swung him between a starting and long relief role
in 2011, not the usual road map for a top prospect, but Hoover has
proven to be a durable and multi-dimensional pitcher, something that
can be very valuable on a Major League staff over a 162 game
schedule.
Hoover
has no true plus big league pitch, but has four pitches in his
fastball, curveball, slider and change up that are solid average
offerings, and he commands all four pitches with maturity. He has
continued to post impressive strikeout totals at every level of the
minors (including 31 in 18 innings in AAA in 2011), a very positive
sign that Hoover’s stuff is on par with his pitchability.
10.
1B/3B Joey Terdoslavich
– Baseball-reference player profile
A
Florida native, Terdoslavich was lost to baseball fans for a year
when he made the very unusual move of transferring from Miami across
the country to Long Beach State and sitting out the 2009 season. He
rebounded in 2010 with a .326-7-46 season in the most difficult home
hitters park in college baseball, and was the Braves sixth round
draft pick.
The
axiom in baseball is that if you can hit you will play and the
switch-hitting Terdoslavich is the most polished hitter in the Braves
minor league system. He slammed 74 extra base hits in 131 games in
the Carolina League, including 52 doubles, and he has the potential
to develop even more over-the-fence power. Terdoslavich has played
both third base and first base as a professional and could likely
play left field as well, and could be an Eric Hinske type bat/utility
player at the big league level. With Freddie Freeman at first base
in Atlanta, he’ll concentrate on third base in 2012.
Others
in the Conversation:
SS Nick Ahmed, 3B Brandon Drury, RHP J.R. Graham, 2B Tommy LaStella,
CF Matt Lipka, RHP Cody Martin, LHP Carlos Perez, RHP Zeke Spruill
Keywords in this article
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