General
Manager: Ben Cherington
Minor
League Director: Ben Crockett
Scouting
Director: Amiel Sawdaye
AAA:
Pawtucket Red Sox (International League) 81-61
AA:
Portland Sea Dogs (Eastern League) 59-83
Hi
A: Salem Red Sox (Carolina League) 64-75
Low
A: Greenville Drive (South Atlantic League) 78-62
Rookie
Adv.: Lowell Spinners (New York-Penn League) 29-45
Rookie:
GCL Red Sox (Gulf Coast League) 27-33
Dominican:
DSL Red Sox (Dominican Summer League) 38-33
System
Overview
All
was right in Red Sox Nation as of September 1 last season. Boston
had the best record in the American League, a comfortable lead over
the hated Yankees in the American League East and a nine game cushion
over the Tampa Bay Rays. The starting rotation didn’t look great
going into the playoffs, but the offense behind MVP candidates CF
Jacob Ellsbury, 1B Adrian Gonzalez and 2B Dustin Pedroia could simply
bludgeon most opponents.
Chaos
was all the existed a month later as the Red Sox went 7-20 in
September amidst one of the biggest collapses in Major League
history. They did win 90 games, but lost out to the resurgent Rays
on what was arguably the most dramatic final regular season day
(Atlanta was finishing their own historic collapse in the NL) in
baseball history.
That
chaos only grew in the off season, as manager Terry Francona took an
inelegant fall out of the organization amid personal and clubhouse
controversy, and General Manager Theo Epstein left to take on the
Cubs challenge. Long-time Red Sox staples such as Jason Varitek, Tim
Wakefield and J.D. Drew retired, while closer Jonathan Papelbon left
for free agency and shortstops Marcus Scutaro and Jed Lowrie were
traded. Starting pitcher John Lackey will miss the 2012 season after
undergoing elbow surgery.
But
as everything has washed out and it is time to begin the 2012 season,
Boston is still in pretty much the same situation as it has been for
the last decade. They’ve been to the playoffs six of the last nine
years and won two World Championships. Their best players (Ellsbury,
Gonzalez, Pedroia, Carl Crawford and Jon Lester) are all in their
late 20s and should be in their physical primes. They have young
pitchers such as Daniel Bard and Clay Buchholz who have All-Star
level arms and could be huge factors in 2012. They’ve re-made
their bullpen with the additions of closer Andrew Bailey and set-up
man Mark Melancon.
And
Boston also still has the great equalizer; as much revenue to spend
as any team in baseball aside from the Yankees, and substantially
more than their other two immediate AL East rivals, Tampa Bay and
Toronto.
Boston’s
minor league system is deep in overall talent but currently lacks a
true star potential type prospect that projects as a future All-Star.
They have teenage prospects such as Xavier Bogaerts and Blake
Swihart who could certainly develop into that caliber of player, but
nothing in the upper levels of their system. That depth, though,
will provide plenty of potential trade chits should the Red Sox look
to make upgrades during the regular season.
The
Red Sox will be one of the teams most heavily impacted by the new
draft rules that are in affect for the 2012 draft. They have
consistently paid well beyond slot money when necessary to sign a
player and haven’t hesitated to take difficult signs when they feel
that is the best player on the board. They’ve gone up against SEC
football teams three times in the last four years (RHP Casey Kelly,
OF Brandon Jacobs, OF Senquez Golson) and emerged successful twice.
Negotiating with Scott Boras does not bother them, nor does making
the occasional expensive mistake. Perhaps not surprisingly given
this approach, Boston’s first pick in the last three drafts has not
received their highest signing bonus that year.
The
organization’s approach to the international talent market has been
very consistent with their domestic philosophy; that will also have
to change.
2011
Draft
With
most everyone in the industry acknowledging that some sort of change
would happen to the basic draft structure, the Red Sox had a very
prototypical draft in 2011, almost a last hurrah of the old system.
The
team’s first round pick, Connecticut RHP Matt Barnes, was projected
to potentially go among the top ten picks, but slid on concerns about
his breaking ball and overall deception. His command, velocity and
change up are not in question, and he could move through the Red Sox
system quickly and become a work-horse big league starter in a hurry
with some minor adjustments.
Not
surprisingly, the Red Sox got the player everyone felt they had
targeted with their second pick in the first round, C Blake Swihart,
and paid him well ($2.5M, exactly $1M more than Barnes) to get him to
pass on a Texas scholarship. The Red Sox also had two other extra
picks in the compensation round and nabbed California LHP Henry Owens
and South Carolina OF Jackie Bradley. Owens was a player frequently
talked about as having first round talent, while Bradley was also
considered first round material before suffering his second wrist
injury in a year and missing a good chunk of the spring.
There
is little doubt that the Red Sox scouting department felt like they
were able to pick and sign four legitimate first round draft choices.
The
Red Sox draft philosophy was working best in the fifth and seventh
rounds, though. They selected Tennessee high school 2B/SS Mookie
Betts and paid him $750,000 in the fifth round, then picked Kansas
high school LHP Cody Kubuk in the seventh round, followed him all
summer and saw him throwing 92-94 at summer WWBA events and signed
him for $800,000. Both Betts and Kubuk received more than the high
school players the Red Sox signed in the second and third rounds, OF
Williams Jerez and C Chase Weems respectively.
Boston
took a chance in the eighth round, trying to lure Golson away from a
football scholarship to play defensive back at Mississippi. Golson
was tempted by the Red Sox reported seven figure offer, and it was
even reported at one point, erroneously, that he had agreed to terms.
He ended up starting in Mississippi’s defensive backfield as a
freshman and is also playing baseball this spring.
Top
10 Prospects
1.
SS Xander Bogaerts –
Baseball-reference player profile
A
native of Aruba, the 6-3/175 Bogaerts surprised even the Red Sox with
his growth as a hitter in 2011. The then 18-year old started the
year in extended spring training and was slated to play the New
York-Penn League in June, but was so impressive that he was sent to
the South Atlantic League instead. He proceeded to hit
.260-16-45/.834 OPS in 72 games at the low A level, phenomenal power
production for an 18-year old middle infielder. Comparisons to
Hanley Ramirez, who was signed and developed by the Red Sox before
being traded to the Marlins, immediately cropped up, although Ramirez
only hit 27 home runs in over 400 minor league games and didn’t
reach A ball until he was 19.
Evaluations
of Bogaerts ability to stay at shortstop are less certain than his
offensive projections. He is a smooth athlete with soft hands and
plenty of arm strength but doesn’t have a quick twitch lower half
or noteworthy straight ahead speed. Interestingly, Bogaerts has a
twin brother, Jair, in the Red Sox system who is listed at 6-2/230
and it seems certain that Xander will continue to get bigger as well.
2.
3B Will Middlebrooks –
Baseball-reference player profile
The
Red Sox gave Middlebrooks a $925,000 signing bonus as a fifth round
pick in 2007 as part of their multi-year drive to find a future third
baseman for the franchise. They also gave Mississippi high school 3B
David Renfroe a $1.4M bonus as a third rounder in 2009, Louisiana HS
3B Garin Cecchini $1.31M as a fourth rounder 2010 and Ball State 3B
Kolbrin Vitek $1.359M as a first rounder, also in 2010. Middlebrooks
has emerged as the top prospect of that nearly $5 million dollar
quartet, which doesn’t even consider the potential for Xander
Bogaerts eventually moving to third base.
Middlebrooks
is a Scott Rolen type athlete and third baseman who was an All-State
Texas high school football player and a low 90s pitching prospect on
the mound. He has steadily increased his power while moving up the
minor league ladder and hit .285-23-94/.834 OPS between AA and AAA in
2011. Unfortunately, his walk and strikeout totals have headed in
the wrong direction as his power has grown, making the comparison to
Rolen weak in that area. But like Rolen, Middlebrooks is a superior
defender with plus athleticism and arm strength.
3.
C Blake Swihart –
Baseball-reference player profile
Swihart
was considered to be one of the best and most well-rounded high
school catching prospects in years despite coming from a New Mexico
high school and only converting to catcher during his junior year.
He was also considered a difficult sign, as he grew up in Austin,
Texas and had a scholarship to the University of Texas. Such
potential road blocks rarely scares away the Red Sox, though, and
they inked Swihart to a $2.5M signing bonus.
Although
he has very good defensive tools, including arm strength that enables
him to throw in the low-to-mid 90s off the mound, Swihart’s most
impressive tools are on offense. He is a switch-hitter with
legitimate prospect level ability from both sides of the plate, a
rarity for any high school hitter but even more so for a catcher.
Swihart’s right handed swing is stronger and more powerful and will
produce more extra base hits, but his left handed swing is crisp and
firm, especially against top level velocity, and will result in a
better batting average. He projects better with the bat from both
sides at the same age than present Red Sox catcher Jarrod
Saltalamacchia, also a first round (comp) pick out of high school.
4.
OF Brandon Jacobs –
Baseball-reference player profile
Jacobs
was all set to play running back at Auburn when the Red Sox offered
him $750,000 as their 10th round pick in 2009. Unlike
many football standouts with limited baseball background, Jacobs
showed an aptitude for hitting almost immediately and was able to
compete in the college oriented New York-Penn League as a 19-year old
in 2010. He then really blossomed with the bat in the South Atlantic
League in 2011, hitting .303-17-80/.881 OPS to go with 30 stolen
bases.
At
a chiseled 6-1/225, Jacobs combination of strength and speed stands
out and he has potential impact tools offensively. Like many former
football players on the other hand, Jacobs raw arm strength is
limited and he is already relegated to left field defensively.
5.
RHP Anthony Ranaudo –
Baseball-reference player profile
Ranaudo
endured an up and down three year career at Louisiana State, where he
alternated between being considered the top pitcher in college
baseball and a potential No. 1 overall pick and struggling with elbow
and mechanical issues. Boston grabbed him in the compensation round
of the 2010 draft and paid him first round money ($2.5M) after other
teams shied away.
Given
that background, perhaps the best thing that the 6-7/230 Ranaudo did
in 2011 was stay out of the limelight and make 26 consecutive starts
between low and high A ball. (9-6, 3.97, 127 IP/117 K). His stuff
was not overpowering, sitting in the low 90s and only occasionally
flashing consistent plus velocity, but his curveball and change up
were constants and he showed the ability to pitch and make
adjustments.
The
Red Sox system has a healthy supply of starting pitchers who project
to be solid middle of the rotation work-horses but few who show star
potential. Ranaudo has a chance to be the one that emerges from the
work-horse pack at this point.
6.
RHP Matt Barnes –
Baseball-reference player profile
The
Red Sox are not an organization that has collected many high velocity
arms, so the hard throwing Barnes immediately became the hardest
throwing true prospect in the system when he signed just before the
deadline last August. The Connecticut right hander can hold his mid
90s velocity into the late innings of starts and has an effortless
delivery that makes it look like he can throw all day. He has also
shown the ability to throw to contact with his fastball and threw
complete games last year with under 100 pitches.
How
fast Barnes moves up the ladder will depend on how his curveball and
change up develop. He has shown an average to plus curveball in the
past but lost his feel for it and became almost exclusively a
fastball pitcher at times last year.
7.
OF Bryce Brentz –
Baseball-reference player profile
The
Red Sox first round compensation pick (36th overall) in
2010 bounced back from a horrible pro debut (.198-5-39/.598 OPS) to
slug through both levels of A ball in his first full season
(.306-30-94/.939) in 2011. Brentz is an immensely strong right
handed hitter who can drive the ball out of the park to all fields
when he gets his hands extended through the ball. Although he isn’t
an all or nothing hitter, there is no mistaking that Brentz is
swinging hard and trying to drive the ball with power.
Brentz
was a two-way star in college at Middle Tennessee State and reached
the mid-90s off the mound, so he has plenty of arm strength for right
field.
8.
2B Sean Coyle –
Baseball-reference player profile
The
Red Sox saw Coyle’s tools and baseball skills and not his 5-8/175
size when they picked him in the third round in 2010 and gave him a
$1.3M signing bonus to keep him from joining his brother Tommy in the
infield at North Carolina. There was never a time that his tools
were on display more than at the 2009 Perfect Game National Showcase,
when Coyle ran a 6.40 60, threw 88 mph across the diamond from
shortstop and a blasted a game home run deep into the left
centerfield seats at the Metrodome.
Coyle
rewarded the Red Sox with a standout first full season, hitting
.247-14-64/.826 OPS with 20 stolen bases in the South Atlantic League
while playing excellent defense at second base. He has a tendency to
go hunting home runs too frequently at the cost of solid contact, but
his power potential is part of his tool package. He has been
compared to a Craig Biggio/Brian Roberts type offense second baseman.
9.
C Ryan Lavarnway –
Baseball-reference player profile
There
seems to be little doubt that Lavarnway is a Major League caliber
hitter. He led the NCAA in hitting (.467) as a sophomore at Yale and
has been the Red Sox minor league offensive player of the year the
past two seasons. He hit .290-32-93/.939 OPS between AA and AAA last
year and then drove in eight runs in nine starts amidst Boston’s
September swoon.
The
question has always been the 6-4/225 Lavarnway’s ability to handle
the defensive responsibilities behind the plate, something he has the
makeup and work ethic for but only marginal physical tools. The Red
Sox have seemingly voted on the matter for 2012, signing former Tampa
Bay and Cleveland catcher Kelly Shoppach (.176-11-22 in 2011) to back
up returning starter Jarrod Saltalamacchia. That leaves Lararnway
with some spots starts at best against tough left handers in place of
DH David Ortiz and the lead right handed pinch hitting role.
10. 3B Garin Cecchini – Baseball-reference player profile
Cecchini
was a highly regarded Louisiana high school prospect in 2010 but tore
his ACL early in the spring going back into first base on a routine
pick off throw and missed the rest of the spring and summer after
undergoing surgery. The Red Sox thought enough about his potential
to pick Cecchini in the fourth round anyway, and eventually bought
him out of a LSU scholarship with a $1.31M bonus.
The
left handed hitting Cecchini was primarily a shortstop in high
school, although no one projected him to stay at that position
professionally. His tools and athleticism should be fine at third
base once he has enough repetitions under his belt. His value is in
his bat, where he has the same type of power potential from the left
side as top prospect Will Middlebrooks has from the right side, only
with a much more polished approach that should produce a higher
batting average and far more walks. Cecchini was having an excellent
pro debut in the New York-Penn League (.298-3-23/.898 OPS) before
breaking his right wrist barely a month into the season.
Others
in the Conversation: OF Jackie Bradley, RHP Chris Carpenter, LHP Felix Doubront, OF
Jeremy Hazelbaker, SS Jose Iglesias, LHP Cody Kukuk, LHP Henry Owens,
C Christian Vazquez, SS Jose Vinicio, RHP Alex Wilson, RHP Brandon
Workman