General
Manager: Andrew Friedman
Minor
League Director: Mitch Lukevics
Scouting
Director: R.J. Harrison
AAA:
Durham Bulls (International League) 80-62
AA:
Montgomery Biscuits (Southern League) 64-75
Hi
A: Charlotte Stone Crabs (Florida State League) 64-75
Low
A: Bowling Green Hot Rods (South Atlantic League) 77-63
Rookie
Adv.: Hudson Valley Renegades (New York-Penn League) 37-39
Rookie:
Princeton Rays (Appalachian League) 30-38
Rookie:
GCL Rays (Gulf Coast League) 24-36
Dominican:
DSL Rays (Dominican Summer League) 35-35
Venezuelan:
VSL Rays (Venezuelan Summer League) 38-33
System
Overview
Tampa
Bay continues to be the true feel good story of Major League
Baseball. With some of the lowest revenues in the game, an
antiquated stadium tied into a long-term lease and a big league
payroll approximately 30-35 percent of the rival Yankees, the Rays
have won an average of 92 games a season for the last four years, and
have been to the playoffs three of those seasons.
Last
year’s improbable September run to the playoffs, in what was
realistically supposed to be a rebuilding year, just adds to the
mystique around the franchise.
Of
course, when Tampa Bay looks at rebuilding, they approach it in a
different way than most professional sports teams would. For Tampa
Bay, it’s a matter of rebuilding and adjusting the payroll
structure to fit the realities of the franchise. When they can’t
afford to pay Carl Crawford or Matt Garza, they trade them or let
them go. Most teams are rebuilding around their talent base.
But
because the Rays have so much talent in their minor league system,
much of it just sitting on the doorstep refining their skills and
waiting for an opportunity, they aren’t lowering the talent level
on the field when they have to let a player go due to cost management
issues.
When
Garza become too expensive, and the Rays knowing they had multiple
potential replacements for his spot in the rotation, they traded him
to the deep pocket Cubs for five players, including two of that
organization’s best prospects, SS Hak-Ju Lee and RHP Chris Archer.
Garza went 10-10 with a 3.32 ERA in 198 innings in Chicago, and the
Rays replaced him with American League Rookie of the Year Jeremy
Hellickson, who went 13-10, with 2.95 ERA in 189 innings. No drop
off there.
When
Crawford, perhaps the best player in franchise history, became too
expensive, they replaced him with prospect Desmond Jennings.
Jennings was injured much of the season but was one of the keys to
Tampa Bay’s September run, and finished with 10 home runs and 20
stolen bases in only 63 games (.803 OPS). Crawford hit 11 home runs
and stole 18 bases (.694 OPS) in an entire season in Boston, the
worst of his career, while earning $19.5 million.
The
most impressive thing is that there is absolutely no reason this
cycle should stop or even have a major bump in the foreseeable
future, especially with manager Joe Maddon and GM Andrew Friedman
still in charge.
Take,
for example, starting pitching. Tampa Bay’s projected starting
rotation for 2012 consists of 26-year old two-time All-Star David
Price, 30-year old All-Star James Shields, 25-year old Hellickson,
23-year old phenom LHP Matt Moore and either 26-year old Wade Davis
(23-20 the past two seasons) or 29-year old Jeff Niemann (36-21 the
past three season). That list doesn’t include 24-year old Alex
Cobb, who went 3-2, 3.42 in nine starts last year in Tampa after
completely dominating AAA.
All
seven of those pitchers were drafted by the Rays and developed in
their system, and all seven also are capable of starting for the vast
majority of the teams in Major League Baseball. But two of them
won’t start for Tampa Bay, and should it become necessary or
desirable to trade any of the seven, the line will continue to move
forward from below, with pitchers like LHP Alex Torres, RHP Chris
Archer and RHP Alex Colome all sitting in AA or AAA ready to advance.
2011
Draft
Tampa
Bay had an unprecedented 11 picks among the first 89 selections in
the 2011 draft, a scenario that will never be repeated under the new
draft rules with fewer opportunities to acquire extra picks. They
received two extra picks for losing Crawford, and also gained a pair
of picks for reliever Grant Balfour. They also received compensation
picks for “losing” free agents LHP Randy Choate, OF Brad Hawpe,
RHP Rafael Soriano, RHP Chad Qualls and RHP Joaquin Benoit. The
manipulation of the free agency rules by the Rays front office was
sheer genius and infused an already talent rich minor league system
with a huge influx of new prospects to develop.
There
was speculation throughout the scouting community during the spring
on how the low budget Rays would approach the draft financially,
given the extra money that they inevitably would have to spend to
sign the extra picks. In the end they played it pretty straight,
paying slot money for a majority of the picks, saving a few dollars
on some pre-draft deals in the compensation round, spending a little
extra on some mid-round picks and really only going over slot for one
pick, California high school 3B Tyler Goeddel ($1.5M with the 41st overall pick).
Although
the Rays have gained the reputation, and with good reason, of aiming
for and developing high ceiling talent, they have always been a
scouting organization that weighs out all the factors and will go
with a college talent just as quickly as a raw high school athlete.
That’s
how they can draft Mikie Mahtook from LSU and Kes Carter from Western
Kentucky during those first 11 picks while still picking raw but
athletic high school outfielders James Harris, Brandon Goetzman and
Johnny Eierman in top round slots (all five of those picks have
centerfield tools, by the way, another Rays preference). They may
have reached a bit for Washington high school left hander Blake Snell
in the compensation round, but followed that pick seven picks later
with savvy Vanderbilt southpaw Grayson Garvin. Junior college closer
Jeff Ames has limited pitching skills but a huge mid-to-upper 90s
fastball, while Hawaii closer Lenny Linsky is a polished Southern
California native who should move quickly through the system.
All
of this points to balance in the Rays' decision making process.
The
Rays also had three extra picks in the 2010 draft. This continued
largesse, plus their success in trading for prospects and farming the
Latin American market has left them in the enviable position of being
three to four deep in their minor league system. They have Tim
Beckham and Hak-Ju Lee at the AAA and AA levels at shortstop, but
they still have the opportunity to develop Jake Hager and Brandon
Martin with the 32nd and 38th picks in the 2011
draft. They have Evan Longoria potentially signed through 2016 with
his option years, but there was no reason for them not to pick
Goeddel and invest in his future. Tampa Bay has picked five high
school outfielders in the top three rounds the past two years. If
only two of them develop into big league starters, the Rays are still
way ahead of the game.
The
prospect field appears to be balanced all the way through the system
as well.
Top
10 Prospects
1.
LHP Matt Moore –
Baseball-reference player profile
Moore
is acknowledged as the best pitching prospect in baseball and is good
enough that he will most likely push an established Major League
starting pitcher such as Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann to the bullpen or
the trade market this spring. He has David Price’s fastball
velocity and command, but has shown both a better breaking ball and
change up at times. It’s not a matter of having nothing left to
prove in the minor leagues, it’s that Moore has already shown he
has not only the stuff but the mental and emotional ability to be an
immediately successful big league pitcher. Shutting out the Yankees
for five innings in your big league debut, then throwing seven
shutout innings against the powerful Rangers line up in the American
League playoffs will do that.
The
difference between a 14-8 rookie season out of Moore (consistent with
Jeremy Hellickson’s 2011 performance) and a respectable 12-10
season out of Davis or Niemann could well mean the difference in
making the playoffs in the hyper-competitive American League East.
Remember, the 2011 season went down to the last pitch. And a 14-8
season could just beginning to scratch the surface on Moore’s
potential.
The
ever innovative Rays management even took the unprecedented step of
locking Moore down on a long-term contract before he has even
officially become a full-time member of the team’s pitching staff.
The unique contract, which could tie Moore to the Rays through 2019
under optimum conditions, has a matter of risk if Moore were to get
seriously hurt, but could also be a huge coup for an organization
that has to control costs and project them out many years into the
future.
2.
SS Hak-Ju Lee –
Baseball-reference player profile
The
Rays acquired Lee, along with fellow top 10 prospect Chris Archer,
big league outfielder Sam Fuld, OF prospect Brandon Guyer and C
Robinson Chirinos, for RHP Matt Garza and two minor leaguers in a
trade that has “steal” written over it should either Lee or
Archer fulfill their potential.
While
Lee had originally been given a $725,000 bonus to sign out of South
Korea by the Cubs and has performed well since coming to the States,
he could be much better than either the Cubs or Rays thought when the
trade was made. He has all the tools defensively to be an
All-Star/Gold Glove level player in the big leagues and Cubs fans
would be obsessing on Starlin Castro’s inevitable move off of
shortstop in favor of Lee if he was still with the organization. And
while Lee is unlikely to ever have double figure home run power, he
projects to be a high average hitter who takes walks and has the
potential to be an impact base stealer.
An
infield with Lee, two-time Gold Glove 3B Evan Longoria and sure
handed 2B Ben Zobrist is something the Rays pitching staff could
really look forward to.
3.
LHP Enny Romero –
Baseball-reference player profile
Romero
is a loose and whippy armed 6-3/165 product of the Dominican
Republic. While most systems seem to have a tall and angular
Dominican right hander with Romero’s look and profile, finding left
handed pitchers with that type of mid 90s velocity and overall
ceiling is much more rare. Although Romero’s hard downer curveball
is a potential plus second pitch to go with his fastball, he doesn’t
throw enough strikes with either pitch or repeat his delivery
consistently enough to be more than a level-by-level prospect at the
moment. But if it suddenly clicks for him, Romero has the raw
ability to be top of the rotation starter for the Rays. They can
afford to be patient with him with that kind of future potential.
4.
LHP Alex Torres –
Baseball-reference player profile
The
Rays brought up two prospect left handers to make key appearances
during the pennant race last September and both picked up their first
Major League win in the process, with the other being Matt Moore, of
course. Torres had just finished a 9-7, 3.08 season in which he led
the International League in strikeouts with 156, his third straight
minor league season with over 150 strikeouts.
The
5-10/175 Torres, a native of Venezuela, packs plenty of power in his
smaller frame. He pitches in the low 90s with his fastball and
throws two off-speed pitches, a hard curveball and a change up, that
are potential plus offerings. He has also proven very durable.
Where Torres could be held back is by his control, as he walked 83
hitters in 146 minor league innings in 2011, plus seven more in his
eight big league innings. His delivery has both effort and
deception, and even after nearly 600 professional innings he still
hasn’t mastered the skill of repeating his release point. Torres
will likely be given another opportunity to dominate AAA hitters as a
starter in 2012 while improving his command, but could end up in a
long relief role should that need arise in Tampa.
Ironically,
Torres originally came to the Rays in a trade for another undersized
left hander with powerful stuff and less than ideal command; former
All-Star Scott Kazmir. The Rays also picked up SS Sean Rodriguez in
that trade, while Kazmir is currently out of professional baseball.
5.
RHP Chris Archer –
Baseball-reference player profile
Archer
ranked higher on the prospect charts than Hak-Ju Lee at the time of
the Cubs trade and has not lost any of his prospect luster in the
year since. Lee has just taken a step forward, while Archer blends
in more with the depth of power arms in the system.
Like
LHP Alex Torres, Archer has plus stuff, including a mid-90s fastball
and a slider that could be the best breaking ball in the Tampa Bay
system, but struggles with command and consistency. He walked 86
hitters in 147 innings between AA and AAA and was only able to
average 5 1/3 innings per start. In addition to his command issues,
Archer has not established any off speed pitch he can throw below 85
mph, whether that be a curveball or a reliable change up. That
combination has led to speculation that Archer is a closer in waiting
for the Rays, who haven’t done much as an organization to develop
relievers and are heavily dependent on the fringe market to stock
their bullpen.
6.
RHP Taylor Guerrieri –
Baseball-reference player profile
Guerrieri
had as good of raw stuff as any high school pitcher in the 2011
draft, but slid to the 24th overall pick amid concerns
about some of his off the field actions that necessitated his
transferring high schools prior to his senior year. He’s the type
of pick the Rays can afford to make with their wealth of pitching
depth; if he ends up as a top of the rotation starter that’s great,
if he doesn’t there are other arms in the system that will take his
place.
Guerrieri
has all three of the basic pitches in place at or near the plus level
in quality. He’s already able to hold a 93-95 mph fastball deep
into starts, his power curveball is a potential big league strikeout
pitch with impressive size and spin, while his change up is
surprisingly good considering how rarely he uses the pitch. If he
adapts quickly and successfully to professional baseball, Guerrieri
could easily top the Rays prospect list next year and become a Shelby
Miller (Cardinals) or Jacob Turner (Tigers) type fast-track prospect.
7.
RHP Alex Colome –
Baseball-reference player profile
A
native of the Dominican Republic and a nephew of former Tampa Bay
reliever, Jesus Colome, Alex has perhaps the best fastball in the
Rays system outside of Matt Moore when you combine its velocity and
movement. Colome is capable of sitting at 94-95 for entire outings
and will touch 97-98 mph on occasion, often with hard late sinking
action at the bottom of the zone. He throws a complete assortment
of pitches including a curveball, slider and change up, but none has
established itself as a dependable secondary pitch. In fact, Colome
struck out only 31 hitters in 52 innings in nine AA starts at the end
of the year, a low total for a pitcher with mid 90s velocity and
indicative of the fact that hitters at that level weren’t concerned
about a swing and miss secondary pitch.
8.
OF Drew Vettleson –
Baseball-reference player profile
Vettleson
is an excellent all around athlete who also has very advanced
baseball skills and a feel for the game. He received attention in
high school for being a switch pitcher with 90 mph velocity with each
arm, but that was only a side show that demonstrated his athletic
ability and coordination. Vettleson’s best tool was and continues
to be his left handed bat. He hasn’t fully matured physically yet,
but has hand/eye coordination and quickness to square up solidly on
top level velocity pitching and drive it hard to all fields. He hit
seven home runs and slugged .462 as a 19-year old in the Appalachian
League, and those numbers should continue to grow as he gets
stronger.
Running
speed is Vettleson’s only average to below average tool, but his
baseball instincts are such that he stole 20 bases in 61 games last
summer. He profiles as a right fielder at the big league level.
9.
2B Ryan Brett –
Baseball-reference player profile
Brett’s
5-9/180 size and his second base/centerfield profile as a high school
player caused him to be overlooked by some scouts as a future quality
college performer instead of a draft prospect, but the Rays picked
him in the third round in 2010 anyway. He rewarded the Rays with an
excellent first full season, hitting .300-3-24/.841 OPS with 21
steals and more walks than strikeouts.
Brett
is a dirtbag type player with a very high energy and aggressive
approach to the game. He has two plus tools in his running speed and
his switch-hitting ability, and will max out those and the rest of
his overall package. He’s the type of player who if you watch him
play for consecutive days as a scout you will likely say, “This guy
is definitely going to play in the big leagues.”
10.
SS Tim Beckham –
Baseball-reference player profile
Beckham
has received plenty of scrutiny and more than a bit of critical
review since being the first overall pick in the 2008 draft. But
that started to change in 2011 as the now 21-year old Georgia native
had his best season (.271-12-70/.736 OPS) between AA and AAA and
re-emerged as a potential big league starter.
It
is interesting to note how the other top six players in the 2008
draft have fared and speculate how the Rays might be different at the
big league level if they had made a different choice. No. 2 overall
pick 3B Pedro Alvarez (Pirates) and No. 4 overall pick LHP Brian
Matusz (Orioles) both made impressive big league debuts but suffered
through horrid 2011 campaigns. Neither would figure any more into
the Rays present big league roster than Beckham. On the other hand,
No. 3 pick Eric Hosmer (Royals) and No. 5 pick Buster Posey (Giants)
would not only be starters with the Rays but give the franchise even
more luster. No. 6 overall pick, C Kyle Skipworth (Marlins) has been
a disappointment thus far and has not advanced beyond A ball.
Realistically, Beckham
could end up as the third best of the top six picks in the 2008
draft. Given the difficulties of the decision making process,
especially in that draft that didn’t have an obvious Stephen
Strasburg/Bryce Harper first pick, that’s not that bad.
Others
in the Conversation: 2B Tyler Bortnick, SS/3B Derek Dietrich,
3B Tyler Goeddel, OF Brandon Guyer, SS Jake Hager, RHP Lenny Linsky,
OF Mikie Mahtook, SS Brandon Martin, RHP Parker Markel, C Justin
O’Conner, OF Josh Sale