Minors : : General
Top Prospects: Arizona D-Backs
Published: Monday, February 27, 2012
General
Manager: Kevin Towers
Minor
League Director: Mike Bell
Scouting
Director: Ray Montgomery
AAA:
Reno Aces (Pacific Coast League) 77-67
AA:
Mobile Bay Bears (Southern League) 84-54
Hi
A: Visalia Rawhide (California League) 63-77
Low
A: South Bend Silver Hawks (Midwest League) 67-72
Rookie
Adv.: Yakima Bears (Northwest League) 33-43
Rookie:
Missoula Osprey (Pioneer League) 41-35
Rookie:
AZL Diamondbacks (Arizona League) 20-35
Dominican:
DSL Diamondbacks (Dominican Summer League) 24-45
System
Overview
The
best way to look at the Diamondbacks as an organization might be to
totally ignore the recent past. It’s served as a very poor
predictor of the near future.
Arizona
won the World Series in 2001 in only their fourth year of existence
and played even better during the regular season in 2002, winning 98
games but losing in the playoffs. By 2004, they were the worst team
in baseball, finishing with an awful 51-111 record. They bounced
back and somehow won 90 games in 2007 and made the playoffs despite
being outscored on the season, but slipped back downhill and lost 97
games in 2010.
And
then out of the blue they changed over most of their pitching staff,
dropped their team ERA by a run a game in 2011 and went 94-68 to make
the playoffs again.
The
genesis of this rapid improvement was in a number of trades and
signings made by former interim General Manager Jerry DiPoto, now
with the Angels, and current GM Kevin Towers. The two managed to
pull off the rare trifecta of improving the team on the field,
improving the talent base in the minor leagues and improving the
club’s present and projected payroll.
Perhaps
the most stunning deal was the last one Towers pulled off this
offseason, sending top prospect RHP Jarrod Parker, OF Collin Cowgill
and RHP Ryan Cook to Oakland for RHP Trevor Cahill and LHP Craig
Breslow. While Parker was slated to assume a starting role this
year, Cahill is a 24-year old who has already won 40 big league games
and pitched in an All-Star Game. The Diamondbacks now have three top
of the rotation starting pitchers in Cahill, RHP Ian Kennedy and RHP
Dan Hudson, with top prospect RHP Trevor Bauer not far from joining
them.
One
of the reasons Towers was able to give up a mature prospect like
Parker is that the Diamondbacks are very healthy in the upper minors
with top level pitching prospects, especially left handers. Tyler
Skaggs, Wade Miley, Pat Corbin and David Holmberg are all southpaws
who will be pitching at the AA level or higher at the start of 2012,
and all project to be members of a big league rotation in the future.
However, with Arizona’s present pitching depth, there is no
telling with what organization that will be.
There
is plenty more talent beyond that in the lower minors as well, and it
seems to be well balanced across the position spectrum. The 2009
draft, when Arizona had five extra picks in the first two rounds,
looks very promising projecting into the future and has produced a
majority of the organization’s top position prospects, including
big league 1B Paul Goldschmidt. The 2011 draft has the chance to do
the same thing for Arizona’s long term pitching talent, with RHP
Archie Bradley joining fellow first rounder Bauer as a potential No.
1 starter.
The
Diamondbacks have a strong history of signing talented prospects from
Latin America, including All-Star catcher Miguel Montero and Gold
Glove outfielder Gerardo Parra, both from Venezuela. But that
pipeline seems to have dried out, as arguably none of their top 20
minor league prospects came from anywhere but the draft.
2011
Draft
The
Diamondbacks 2011 draft under scouting director Ray Montgomery has a
chance to go down in the A+ category. It looks obvious in retrospect
that the organization prioritized pitching in the upper rounds, just
as they seemed to have prioritized position prospects and power in
2009, and they carried off the plan seemingly without hitch in a
draft class that was already notable for its depth of pitching
prospects.
Trevor
Bauer was not only the most dominant pitcher in college baseball over
the last three years, but also one of the most controversial due to
his unusual training methods. One other thing that was not
underappreciated by the Diamondbacks is that Bauer, and not UCLA
teammate and first overall pick Gerrit Cole, was probably the closest
player in the draft to the big leagues.
When
the Diamondbacks voided the contract of 2010 first round pick Barrett
Loux (sixth overall), they received the seventh pick in the much
deeper 2011 draft and were rewarded with Oklahoma high school RHP
Archie Bradley. Just as some in the scouting community liked Bauer
better than Cole, some look at Bradley and project him to be
potentially better than Oklahoma high school rival and good friend
Dylan Bundy, the fourth overall pick in 2011 (Baltimore).
With
two premium arms already selected, Arizona was able to pick up two
more early picks in compensation pick (for 1B Adam LaRoche) LHP
Andrew Chafin from Kent State and second rounder RHP Anthony Meo from
Coastal Carolina. Both have first round arms but dropped due to
injury (Chafin’s 2010 TJ surgery) and performance/polish (Meo).
Both are the type of pitchers that scouts like to talk about as
future relievers, and Chafin does have a successful history out of
the bullpen to go with a killer slider. The Diamondbacks will
develop both as starters initially.
One
draftee that will definitely be developed as a reliever and could
have a fast track to the big leagues is fourth round pick Evan
Marshall from Kansas State. Marshall went 0-1, 1.16, 6 saves in 31
innings after signing immediately, and he finished the season in AA.
He has a low to mid 90s fastball to go with a power slider and a
rubber arm.
The
sleeper pick for the Diamondbacks is 10th rounder RHP Kyle
Winkler from Texas Christian. Winker showed first round stuff and
performance through his college career, although his 5-11/205 build
would have likely pushed him down to the second or third round. He
missed the end of the season with shoulder issues, however, which
scared teams. The Diamondbacks signed him for $240,000, their only
true over slot signing, and have been patient with his rehab.
Arizona
spent over $10 million on the first four pitchers on their draft list
(Bauer “only” received a $3.4 million bonus but also signed a
Major League contract), and that might have been a factor in their
not signing their fifth and sixth round picks, South Carolina RHP
Matt Price and Montana high school outfielder Ben Roberts. Their
third round pick was Pennsylvania high school outfielder Justin
Bianco, the only positional prospect the team took among their first
six selections, who has a potential plus power/speed combination,
although his hitting skills are still on the raw side.
Top
10 Prospects
1.
RHP Trevor Bauer –
Baseball-reference player profile
Bauer
generated more publicity than any pitching prospect since Stephen
Strasburg, and likely has formed more varying opinions than any other
pitcher will for a long time to come. His success after entering
UCLA early as a high school senior (34-8, 2.36, 460 K’s in 373
innings over three years) is eye opening, as is his overpowering
stuff (5 potential plus pitches, including a mid 90s fastball and a
filthy curveball) and the way he uses it. Bauer’s delivery, size
and approach to pitching, sort of a combination of Tim Lincecum and
David Cone, certainly qualified as different and was thoroughly
discussed and dissected.
But
the biggest source of controversy was the fact that the 21-year old
Bauer was not only using highly unconventional training techniques,
but openly talking about the reasons and the science behind why they
should be successful. Baseball people lean heavily toward the
conservative side when it comes to different ideas and making
changes, even more so when they come from highly motivated and
intelligent youngsters.
It
was a testament to Bauer’s personality, as much as his performance
and stuff, that he won over professional baseball and its
conservative tendencies.
There
was plenty of speculation last summer that Bauer could pitch in the
big leagues almost immediately and perhaps help the Diamondbacks in
their pennant run. That didn’t happen, probably for the better in
the long term. A fresh and prepared Bauer will probably get a long
look during the Diamondbacks’ spring training camp and it would be
surprising if he didn’t get his first big league opportunity
sometime in 2012. He has No. 1 starter potential and the
Diamondbacks have no reason to hold back on his progress and
development.
It’s
worth noting that due to Bauer entering UCLA a year early he’s only
19 months older than Archie Bradley, and only six months older than
Tyler Skaggs, the team’s next two next best pitching prospects.
2.
RHP Archie Bradley –
Baseball-reference player profile
When
the Diamondbacks drafted Barrett Loux from Texas A&M with the
sixth pick in the 2010 draft and initially agreed with him on a $2
million signing bonus, it was seen as a signability pick. After
Loux’s contract was voided for medical reasons Arizona was given
the seventh pick in the 2011 draft. Since they already had the third
overall pick, most of the scouting industry speculated that Arizona
would again be looking for a below slot signability pick.
The
Diamondbacks instead choose to go big, selecting Bradley and
eventually signing him to a $5 million signing bonus.
It
wouldn’t be hard to find scouts who prefer Bradley’s long-term
future over Bauer’s. Bradley is a 6-4/225 athlete who had the
opportunity to go to Oklahoma to play quarterback if it wasn’t for
baseball. He has classic power stuff in the Jason Verlander mold,
with a fastball that can sit in the mid 90s already from a leveraged
high three-quarters release point and a low 80s power curveball that
could develop into one of the best breaking balls in baseball. He
doesn’t have Bauer’s selection of pitches or ability to use them,
but his size, delivery and fastball/curveball combination put him in
the same class as a potential future No. 1 starter.
3.
LHP Tyler Skaggs –
Baseball-reference player profile
Skaggs
has taken a very gradual development path that helps define the
concept of “projectable” for scouts. He was well established on
the Southern California prospect map as a high school junior,
throwing 86-89 mph with a big but slow upper 60s curveball at the
2008 Area Codes Games. He bumped that up to 91-92 mph at the WWBA
World Championship in October and held that velocity during the
spring, which led to him being selected in the compensation round by
the hometown Angels in 2009.
Skaggs
was traded to Arizona (first as a player to be named as he hadn’t
been signed for a year) as part of the Dan Haren “Southpaw” trade
in 2010, with the Angels also getting LHPs Joe Saunders and Pat
Corbin as part of the deal. Since then Skaggs has slowly improved
his stuff further. Still only 20-years old, Skaggs now pitches
consistently in the low 90s and will touch 93-94 mph on occasion.
His curveball still doesn’t have ideal power in the low 70s, but
Skaggs has such good feel for its shape and location that it is a
plus pitch. His changeup has also grown in quality over the past
three years.
Skaggs
easy dominance in his last 10 starts in AA in 2011 (4-1, 2.50, 73 Ks
in 58 IP) opens up the opportunity for him to make his big league
debut in 2012, although that would be on more of a need basis given
the amount of high level pitching ahead of him.
4.
OF A.J. Pollock –
Baseball-reference player profile
Pollock
was originally a shortstop when he came out of a Connecticut high
school and played at Notre Dame ,but eventually moved to centerfield
in college. His middle of the field athleticism makes him an above
average defender at all three outfield positions, and a comparison
could be made that Pollock is a right handed hitting version of
Arizona outfielder Gerardo Parra.
The
Diamondbacks first round draft pick in 2009, Pollock missed the
entire 2010 season after fracturing his elbow, but skipped over Hi A
ball completely and didn’t miss a step at AA in 2011
(.307-8-73/.801 OPS, 36 SB’s, 41 2B’s). He doesn’t project to
hit for more than low double figures home run power, but will be a
high average, high doubles player who will steal bases and maximize
his tools.
Arizona
centerfield Chris Young is signed through 2013 (with a team option
for 2014) at an affordable rate, but it would be natural to consider
Pollock the Diamondbacks centerfielder of the future.
5.
LHP Wade Miley –
Baseball-reference player profile
Miley,
Arizona’s first round compensation pick in 2008, shows a notable
resemblance to Diamondbacks LHP Joe Saunders in background, overall
stuff and performance at the same point in their careers.
Ironically, Arizona re-signing Saunders to a one year deal for 2012
might have cost Miley a spot in the rotation, where his performance
could well have matched what Saunders is projected to give the team
as a fourth starter, and saved the team plenty of money.
Miley
went 4-2 in seven starts in the pennant race last season, and the
Diamondbacks won five of those games. He doesn’t have a true plus
pitch, although his changeup can be his out pitch in any given start,
and throws four solid average pitches for strikes and competes on the
mound. He also doesn’t seem to get much respect in the prospect
circles, but there is no way anyone should undervalue a left hander
who has already tasted success in the big leagues.
6.
LHP Pat Corbin –
Baseball-reference player profile
Like
A.J. Pollock, Corbin is a native Northeasterner (New York) who wasn’t
highly recruited nationally out of high school despite pitching in
the upper 80s at WWBA events for the Syracuse Sports Zone Chiefs. He
attended Mohawk Valley CC in New York for a year while also playing
basketball, then blossomed after transferring to Chipola College (FL)
while concentrating just on baseball. The Angels drafted him in the
second round in 2009 and packaged him with Tyler Skaggs as part of
the Dan Haren trade in 2010.
Corbin
is almost exactly two years older than Skaggs, but the two have
similar raw stuff and both had immediate success at the AA level,
where Corbin led the Southern League in innings (160) and strikeouts
(142) in 2011. The primary difference between the two is that Corbin
throws a slider instead of a curve like Skaggs and doesn’t have the
same type of feel or command of the pitch as the younger southpaw
has.
7.
3B Matt Davidson –
Baseball-reference player profile
Davidson was a standout
power hitter for the ABD Bulldogs in high school and as an Aflac
All-American, and always hit better in the summers with wood bats
against top level pitching than he seemed to during the spring
playing high school ball. He was part two of the Diamondbacks
two-part high school third base draft in 2009 when Arizona selected
Florida high school 3B Bobby Borchering in the first round and
Davidson in the compensation round. The seemingly redundant
selections caused the two to split time between third base and first
base on an alternating basis for two years, but that will end in 2012
with Borchering moving to left field. Borchering remains a top power
prospect but Davidson is ahead of him both defensively and with his
overall hitting skills.
Davidson
is a mature hitter who is immensely strong and can drive the ball out
of the park to all fields when he gets his hands extended. He still
strikes out more than the Diamondbacks probably would like to see
(147 Ks in 2011) but isn’t just a free swinger, hitting
.277-20-106/.813 OPS with 39 doubles last year, power numbers that
likely will continue to improve. The 6-3/225 Davidson isn’t likely
to win any Gold Gloves at the big league level due to his range, but
has easy, fluid actions at the ball and a strong throwing arm.
8.
LHP David Holmberg –
Baseball-reference player profile
Holmberg
is a Florida high school product who had the very rare honor of being
selected by the White Sox in the second round of the 2009 draft, as
the White Sox almost never select a high school player that high in
the draft. In retrospect, it wasn’t a shocking pick as Holmberg
was very similar to a polished college pitcher, with a strong mature
build, sound delivery mechanics, an upper 80s fastball that touched
90 mph and a full assortment of off speed pitches that he commanded
well.
The
White Sox included Holmberg in the Edwin Jackson/Daniel Hudson trade
in July, 2010 and the Diamondbacks have potentially scored with that
throw-in and have certainly added to their impressive store of
southpaw prospects. Holmberg’s stuff has firmed up by 2-3 mph
since the trade, enabling him to attack professional hitters more
aggressively instead of pitching backwards. He went 12-9, 3.44 in
2011, split evenly between the two A levels, striking out 156 batters
in 154 innings.
9.
3B Ryan Wheeler –
Baseball-reference player profile
The
Diamondbacks have had problems over the years with strikeouts. The
2010 Major League Diamondbacks set an all-time big league record with
1,529 strikeouts as a team and many of the organization’s most
promising minor league athletes such as Bobby Borchering, Chris
Owings and Keon Broxton have worrisome contact problems.
Among
the team’s power/corner prospects, the 6-4/220 Wheeler shows the
best overall command of the strike zone and ability to make
consistent hard contact. His power numbers have steadily increased
since signing as a fifth round draft pick in 2009 and he had a strong
season in AA in 2011 (.294-16-89/.822 OPS).
10.
OF Adam Eaton –
Baseball-reference player profile
Eaton
was an unheralded 19th round senior sign pick out of Miami
(OH) in 2010 who has performed well beyond what anyone could have
imagined for him. He broke in by hitting .385 in the Pioneer League
after signing, and lasted only half the season in A ball in 2011
before being bumped up to AA where he hit .302-4-28/.838 OPS during
the second half of the season. Eaton doesn’t have the pure speed
or power to project as a starting Major League outfielder, but he can
play all three outfield positions and projects to be a high
average/high on-base percentage left handed hitter off the bench.
Others
in the Conversation: OF/1B Bobby Borchering, CF Keon Broxton,
LHP Andrew Chafin, OF Marc Krauss, RHP Evan Marshall, RHP Anthony
Meo, RHP Kevin Munson, 2B David Nick, SS Chris Owings
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