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Minors : : General
BP Top Prospects: Atlanta Braves
Jason Parks    
Published: Friday, March 08, 2013

This story originally appeared on BaseballProspectus.com.  To view the full, original story, please visit this link.


State of the Farm: “I look at you all see the love there that's sleeping.”

Prospect rankings primer

The Top Ten

  1. RHP Julio Teheran
  2. RHP J.R. Graham
  3. RHP Lucas Sims
  4. RHP Mauricio Cabrera
  5. Christian Bethancourt
  6. LHP Sean Gilmartin
  7. SS Jose Peraza
  8. LHP Alex Wood
  9.  2B Tommy La Stella
  10. LHP Luis Merejo

1. Julio Teheran

Position: RHP
DOB: 01/27/1991
Height/Weight: 6’2’’ 175 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, 2007, Colombia
2012 Stats: 5.08 era (131 IP, 146 H, 97 K, 43 BB) at Triple-A Gwinnett; 5.68 ERA (6.1 IP, 5 H, 5 K, 1 BB) at major-league level
The Tools: 6 FB; 6+ CH

What Happened in 2012: The high-ceiling arm continued to struggle with his command and the execution of a breaking ball, which caused his prospect stock to drop.

Strengths: Easy/fluid arm; excellent extension; fastball works 89-94; plus offering; changeup can be money pitch; fastball disguise with excellent arm speed and late action; several sources put a 7 on the pitch.

Weaknesses: Command struggles; can fall out of delivery; fastball can straighten out, especially up in the zone; breaking ball inconsistency; shows slower CB with 12/6, but it’s often too loose; harder upper-70s breaker has two-plane movement, but similar arm speed issues that cause it to slurve.

Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 2/3 starter

Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; major-league quality floor, but breaking ball and command need refinement to reach rotation ceiling.

Fantasy Future: With two plus pitches, Teheran has the stuff to be an impact starter; good strikeout potential at peak with delivery/arm to handle workload.

The Year Ahead: One of the more frustrating young arms in the game, Teheran was once on the fast track to the top of the rotation, but the upper minors exposed his fringe breaking stuff and his command issues. The arm is still loose and live, and the fastball/changeup combo gives him the firepower to achieve major-league success, but several sources question the ultimate ceiling and the chance to reach it. If Teheran can add some movement to his fastball, continue to execute a high-quality changeup, and find comfort and utility with either of his breaking ball looks, he can still develop into a no. 2 type at the highest level. But the future isn’t as clear and defined as it once appeared for the Colombian righty.

Major league ETA: 2011


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