- RHP Lucas Giolito
- RHP A.J. Cole
- CF Michael Taylor
- RHP Reynaldo Lopez
- RHP Erick Fedde
- OF Steven Souza
- C Jakson Reetz
- RHP Jake Johansen
- CF Rafael Bautista
- SS/2B Wilmer Difo
1. Lucas Giolito
Position: RHP
DOB: 07/14/1994
Height/Weight: 6’6” 255 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2012 draft, Harvard-Westlake HS (Los Angeles, CA)
Previous Ranking: #1 (Org), #13 (Top 101)
2014 Stats: 2.20 ERA (98 IP, 70 H, 110 K, 28 BB) at Low-A Hagerstown
The Tools: 8 potential FB; 8 potential CB; 6+ potential CH
What Happened in 2014: The young right-hander made his much anticipated full-season debut, where he took the South Atlantic league by storm, fanning a whopping 110 batters in 98 innings while only allowing 70 hits.
Strengths: Outstanding size; excellent present strength; proportionately filled out throughout frame; uses body well to create steep plane; stays tall above the ball; good balance; elite arm strength; fastball easily works 93-97; can reach back for more; big arm-side run in lower band (93-95); explosive offering; can already throw to all four quadrants; curve shows deep two-plane break; power pitch; adept at replicating arm slot and disguise to fastball; high confidence in offering; will use at any point in the count; commands to both sides of the plate; already plus to better; elite potential; flashes feel for change; turns over with a loose wrist; displays fade with late drop; early makings of strong pitchability; competes.
Weaknesses: Lot of body to control; can drift during landing and open early; diminishes fastball command at times; still in the early stages of building stamina; some effort in delivery wears him down; stuff can get loose and sloppy deeper into outings; velocity trails off third time through; will wrap wrist when delivering curve from time to time; change has gap to close to reach on-paper potential; loses action when throws too hard; doesn’t presently command pitch well; leaves up in zone due to early release.
Overall Future Potential: 8; elite starting pitcher
Realistic Role: 7; no. 1/2 starter
Risk Factor/Injury History: High risk; yet to reach upper levels; Tommy John on resume; progression of changeup.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: While it’s true that no other arm rivals Giolito’s pure fantasy upside, there are risk factors holding him back from being an elite fantasy prospect, other than just “he’s a pitcher.” The biggest is that with one Tommy John already behind him, but not wholly in the rearview mirror, his downside is increased. That sentence would read “increased compared to similar players” for almost anyone, but his lack of a peer group renders that meaningless. Beyond the nitpicking, this is a pitcher who could be the top fantasy arm in baseball one day, offering potentially elite contributions in all four categories.
The Year Ahead: Giolito is one of the premier pitchers rising up through the ranks, with a ceiling that highlights his potential to round into one of the best arms in the game for many seasons to come. The combination of size and elite raw stuff seems unfair at times. This is the total package: a power arm with explosive stuff who has shown early on that he has a feel for his craft and a mentality to use his arsenal to make hitters look feeble. The reports from this past season all spoke glowingly of the 20-year-old, with a unified front that things can be very big. The next step for Giolito will be an assignment in High-A, where, with another year removed from surgery, the workload is likely to increase and the train can steamroll even further down the tracks. It’s not out of the question that the right-hander reaches Double-A at some point in the summer should the Carolina League prove no match. The main developmental markers ahead are improvements with his stamina and progression with the change. The former should come naturally given more strength is likely to come into his early twenties and with the increased repetition he will see. The latter comes down to execution and focus. Sit back and enjoy the ride with this one.
Major league ETA: 2016
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