BP Top Prospects: Cincinnati Reds

Last year's Reds list

The Top Ten

1. RHP Robert Stephenson
2. OF Jesse Winker
3. RHP Michael Lorenzen
4. OF Yorman Rodriguez
5. RHP Nick Howard
6. SS Alex Blandino
7. LHP Ben Lively
8. RHP Nick Travieso
9. OF Phil Ervin
10. 3B Gavin LaValley

1. Robert Stephenson

Position: RHP
DOB: 02/24/1993
Height/Weight: 6’2” 190 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2011 draft, Alhambra HS (Martinez, CA)
Previous Ranking: #1 (Org), #22 (Top 101)
2014 Stats: 4.74 ERA (136.2, 114 H, 140 K, 74 BB) at Double-A Pensacola
The Tools:  7+ potential FB; 7 potential CB; 5+ potential CH

What Happened in 2014: Stephenson had an uneven first run at the Southern League but continues to show swing-and-miss stuff while retaining further projection in body and stuff. 

Strengths: Athletic and projectable; loose and easy power arm; solid extension; generates torque through upper/lower-half separation; fastball already plays to double plus; operates comfortably in the mid-90s velocity band and regularly flirts in the upper 90s; hard curve with utility in and out of zone; sharp bite with plus-plus potential at maturity; changeup will flash; easy arm and athleticism give foundation for solid control and command; competitive; attack mentality on the bump with aggressive approach; already showing loud stuff with room for additional growth across the board.

Weaknesses: Yet to transition from thrower to pitcher; adversity too often met with “grip and rip” mentality; needs to work to unpack the craft and become less predictable, particularly with runners on or when struggling; control took a step back at Double-A with fewer bats chasing and Stephenson overthrowing when behind; changeup still budding, and can come deliberate and firm; needs off-speed to effectively neutralize righty bats, especially if command doesn’t fully manifest.

Overall Future Potential: 7; no. 2 starter

Realistic Role: 6; no. 3 starter with shutdown closer fallback

Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate; limited success at Double-A; overall refinement required

Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: There’s no questioning the potential in Stephenson, as it’s among the highest in the minors, but his 2014 showed what the shortfalls could be in his fantasy profile—and they could take a big hit out of his value. The strikeouts are fantastic, and he could whiff 200 over a full year, but just look at 2014 Zack Wheeler who struck out more than a batter per inning, but walked 79 en route to a 1.33 WHIP and a 65th place ranking among starting pitchers in mixed leagues. And like Wheeler, he can take that next step forward to be a high-end SP2.

The Year Ahead: Stephenson survived the year at Double-A Pensacola, but in the process showed there is work to be done before tackling the next set of developmental challenges. Almost all of the righty’s issues can be traced back to a propensity to try to throw through his on-field obstacles, rather than negotiate them via more precise execution of his craft. The fastball-curve combo has the potential to miss bats at every level, but in order to fully tap into that potential, Stephenson is going to have to rein things in and place a higher premium on spotting and execution. It’s dangerous to scout the stat line when putting together a prospect profile, but in Stephenson’s case, last year’s numbers point to a profile confirmed by reports: struggles maintaining a handle on his power arsenal, lack of a present weapon against right-handed bats, and discomfort operating with runners on. While his problems caused evaluators in and out of the organization to pump their brakes, the road to major-league impact is still wide open for the former first rounder thanks to an impressive arsenal. Stephenson has the athleticism, projectable strength, and body control to grow into a solid command profile, and an enticing bit of room left in projecting his secondaries. It’s likely he starts 2015 back in Double-A and remains on track to debut in Cincinnati at some point in the next two years with an eye to assuming Opening Day duties in the not-to-distant future.

Major league ETA: 2015