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Minors  | General  | 2/5/2015

BP Top Prospects: Houston Astros

Nick Faleris      Baseball Prospectus     
Photo: Perfect Game

To view the full feature, including detailed reports on the Houston Astros top 10 prospects, please visit this link.

Last year's Astros list

The Top Ten
  1. SS Carlos Correa
  2. RHP Mark Appel
  3. RHP Vincent Velasquez
  4. OF Brett Phillips
  5. OF Derek Fisher
  6. RHP Michael Feliz
  7. RHP Lance McCullers
  8. OF Domingo Santana
  9. 3B Colin Moran
  10. OF Teoscar Hernandez


1. Carlos Correa

Position: SS
DOB: 09/22/1994
Height/Weight: 6’4’’ 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1
st round, 2012 draft, Puerto Rican Baseball Academy (Gurabo, PR)
Previous Ranking: #1 (Org), #5 (Top 101)
2014 Stats: .325/.416/.510 at High-A Lancaster (62 games)
The Tools: 7 arm; 6+ potential hit; 6+ potential power; 6 glove

What Happened in 2014: The expeditious development of Correa was dealt its first major blow, as a broken fibula cut short an up-until-then impressive 2014 that likely would have seen the former first-rounder finish in Double-A at the age of 19.

Strengths: Advanced approach at the plate; top-shelf offensive skill set; broad frame filling in nicely; emerging strength in swing; good balance and barrel delivery; compact to contact but can flash more leveraged swing depending on situation; arm is a weapon; soft hands and clean actions; big makeup; elite talent.

Weaknesses: Fringy average run, could continue to decline; body could eventually push profile to third base at maturity; will occasionally fall into early extension, adding length to swing.

Overall Future Potential: 7; all-star player

Realistic Role:  6; first-division player

Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate; high floor; if he can show full bounce-back from broken fibula this drops to low risk quickly.

Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Correa is a top-three fantasy prospect, and could be an absolute monster at a notoriously weak position. Sure, there’s risk that he may have to move to third base long term, but the bat contains so much upside that it just doesn’t matter. Correa could be a .300 hitter with 30 homers if the bat plays up to capacity—which would be a first-round pick at almost any position.

The Year Ahead: Correa was well on his way to staking a claim to title of best prospect in the game before an ill-fated slide into third abruptly ended his 2014 season 62 games into the campaign. There is impact potential on both sides of the ball, including the possibility for plus or better grades offensively and soft hands, clean actions, and a double-plus arm that could help him to stick at the six-spot. The Puerto Rican prep product has a natural feel for the game that has allowed him to progress quickly over his short pro career, as a healthy Correa would have been all but certain to reach Double-A last summer at the age of 19 and with fewer than two full pro seasons under his belt. Looking ahead, Correa’s developmental trajectory will be wholly tied to whether there are lingering effects stemming from his broken fibula. The prevailing belief seems to be that little should change from a value standpoint, with the bat projecting to impact regardless of defensive position, and his high grades for makeup and work ethic give comfort Correa will put in the requisite time and effort to get himself back up to speed. He could get a short return trip to the Cal League to build momentum, but should spend a nice chunk of 2015 in Double-A with a late season cup of coffee possible and a 2016 extended Houston debut all but certain.

Major league ETA: 2016


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