Astros to pick 1st in 2012 MLB Draft

For the third time in the organization's 50-year history, the Houston Astros will have the dubious honor of selecting first in next June's first-year player draft. Their two previous first overall picks, Floyd Bannister (1976) and Phil Nevin (1992), enjoyed productive big-league careers, although neither spent much time with the Astros after being traded to other organizations early in their careers.

Unlike the past several years in which one or two near-unanimous top prospects have been identified the summer prior to the draft itself, next year's talent pool suggests that the eventual player selected first overall may not be among the players currently discussed for that pick.

At this time last year Anthony Rendon and Gerrit Cole were considered the top two players available for last June's draft. Bryce Harper's legacy started the moment he announced he would be foregoing both his junior and senior years in high school to attend junior college, thus making him draft eligible a year early in 2010. Stephen Strasburg became a legend far before he was the first overall pick in 2009.

Next year's talent pool has already been labeled as weak, although that has to do with a lackluster college crop. The high school talent currently emerging is viewed as very strong, with a long list of both power arms and bats that could help make up for the perceived college weakness.

And that also could prompt the Astros to make history.

No high school right-handed pitcher has ever been selected first overall, and the way draft boards currently stack up, Lucas Giolito could change that.

The 6-foot-6, 230-pound right-hander has been clocked as high as 98 and easily works in the low-to-mid-90s deep into games.  He shows very good command of his fastball and tight, sharp-breaking slider, giving him the perfect combination of size, stuff and control while throwing on a downhill plane, making him that much more difficult to hit.

Of course high school pitchers are generalized as risky commodities, and teams that are selecting first overall are doing so because they were the worst team in baseball the previous season. Teams in that position typically don't have the luxury of taking chances with high-risk propositions, particularly given the financial investment required.

Because of that, the Astros may turn to one of the top college players. Arizona State shortstop Deven Marrero and Stanford right-handed pitcher Mark Appel are the names currently associated with the top picks.

Both are incredibly talented players, as Marrero is a potential five-tool shortstop and Appel's profile is somewhat similar to Giolito's.  However, the talent at the top of the draft causes some debate as to where either would have been selected had they been eligible for this past year's draft. The talent pool for this past year's draft was considered one of the strongest ever, with very good depth at both the college and high school levels.

Regardless of who the Astros pick, it is important that they continue to inject as much talent into their system as possible. The Rays, who had the first overall pick four times in 10 years, have proven how quickly a team's fortune can turnaround with an ample supply of talent.

Following the Astros in the draft order are the Minnesota Twins, who haven't had a pick in the top 10 since they took Joe Mauer with the first overall selection in 2001.

After drafting second last year, the Mariners will pick third next June. Typically not considered one of the perennially worst teams in the game, the 2012 draft will mark the fifth time in eight years that Seattle has had a pick among the top five overall selections.

Drafting early hasn't helped the Orioles, as next year will mark the 11th time in 12 years that they have had a pick among the top 10 overall selections.

The Royals with the fifth overall selection are in a similar situation to the Orioles when it comes to the draft, with a top 10 pick in 12 of the last 16 years. Unlike the Orioles, most seem to think the Royals are on a path similar to the Rays given the incredible talent they have collected in recent years.

After the Twins, the Padres had the second biggest slide from 2010 to this past year, and will have the seventh overall pick in next year's draft.

Two teams that had multiple first-round picks this past year, the Diamondbacks and the Brewers, enjoyed the two biggest jumps in the win-loss column from 2010 to this year. The Diamondbacks in particular went from owning the third-worse record in 2010 to having the sixth-best in 2011.

For the second year in a row, the Philadelphia Phillies finish the season with the best record in baseball.

With the current collective bargaining agreement scheduled to expire on December 11, rumors have been swirling for over a year about Commissioner Bud Selig's desire to add hard monetary slot values. While many seem to grow more and more skeptical of this happening, it does seem likely that the signing deadline will be bumped up from its current date of August 15.

This change would be beneficial for everyone involved, as the players would be able to begin their professional careers with over a month left in the minor league season that ends on Labor Day, and teams can put the draft behind them while focusing on the next year's crop of talent during the busy summer showcase and tournament season.

2012 Draft Order

After having three unsigned players from the 2010 draft effect the order of the first-round of the 2011 draft, only one first-round pick from this past year went unsigned, the 21st overall pick of the Toronto Blue Jays, Tyler Beede. The 2010 PG All-American has already began his college career at Vanderbilt, and projects as a likely premium pick for the 2014 draft.  The Blue Jays will receive the 22nd overall pick in 2012 as compensation.

Here is how the order of the first-round of next year's draft stacks up, also showing each team's first pick from the past three drafts. Unless more drastic changes are implemented prior to the beginning of the offseason, it should be expected that free agent compensation will remain in 2012, meaning the draft order will look significantly different by the end of the upcoming offseason.

Tie-breakers for teams that finished with the exact same record/winning percentage are awarded to the team that finished with the worse record the previous season.