3/12/2012 8:07:26 PM
There is at least one player on the DPL travel team who has very good reason to be very sad, if not angry, at the new international signing rules: OF Gustavo Cabrera.
As of July 2, 2012, teams will be limited to spending $2.9M total over the course of the next year on international signings. I haven't talked to anyone on the international scene about how they anticipate teams will separate out that money but my guess is that it would be surprising to see any one player get over $1.2M to $1.5M.
The Texas Rangers spent over $20M on international signings over the last year according to published reports and that doesn't even include Japanese RHP Yu Darvish or the unapproved $4.5M bonus offered to OF Jairo Beras. If Beras' contract would be approved, they would have a $12M+ outfield of Beras, Roman Mendez ($5M) and Ronald Guzman ($3.3M) just from 2011 signings out of the Dominican Republic.
Cabrera just turned 16 in late January and has phenomenal physical ability. He runs 6.6 on gravel tracks, hand timed (which is probably about 6.35 on turf laser timed), has a future plus arm and has as much bat speed at the same age as a Justin Upton-type prospect. In fact, comparing him to Upton wouldn't be unfair.
I asked the DPL guys how Cabrera compared to the three big Rangers signs. The response was interesting.
"The pro scouts really want to sign that big, tall pojectable player (all three of the Ranger signs are 6-4 or taller and sound like future Giancarlo Stanton type prospects) who they can project that huge power from. But for me, Cabrera is just as good if not better than those guys. Not only does he have the same type of power right now, he's a premium position guy who can play centerfield. That has huge value. I hope they would value Cabrera the same way but it's kind of a not realistic to even talk about anymore."
Indeed, it's not realistic. Cabrera could have easily been looking at a $3M to $4M payday on July 2 under the old rules. It's not hard to imagine 3B Amaurys Minier from this group generating the same type of interest. Now they will be looking at maybe 30% of that amount. That's a huge drop.
Mad or sad won't change it, though.