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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 picks: Week 10

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4/14/2014 7:42:42 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
AN IMPORTANT HEADS-UP.

This is Easter Week, and that means changes to the schedule. Before I post the games, I want to let everyone know the following:
  • There will be no games on Easter Sunday. As a result, every series will start on Thursday, so DO NOT WAIT (those of you who are guilty of last-minute picks) until Friday morning, because that will be too late.
  • Oregon State has an actual BYE this weekend, but instead of adding two non-Pac series, I want to use just the six averaged as seven to produce some fractional scores. Getting tired of three- and four-way ties in the standings.
  • I will probably also throw in one...maybe both of OSU's Monday-Tuesday games against Sac State as a different kind of "extra credit", worth up to a whole point each. Again the point is to create varied scores to avoid the need for a tiebreaker at the end of the season. I'll let everyone know how I intend to score those two tomorrow. Probably total combined runs or something.
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4/14/2014 8:07:11 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
I'm gonna let the first person to respond pick which of these three non-Pac series to use this week (ISRs in brackets):

  • North Carolina [81] at #1 Virginia [12]
  • #19 CS Fullerton [33] at #3 Cal Poly [2]
  • #8 LSU [22] at #12 Ole Miss [11]
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4/14/2014 10:39:17 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly
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4/15/2014 12:42:50 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
What He Said
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4/15/2014 12:58:15 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Okay, the CSU system and Big West it is.

I'll have this all up tomorrow evening. Get out there and enjoy your lunar eclipse.
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4/15/2014 1:11:35 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Just for fun, here are the week 10 conference standings from LAST year....
                 W    L    Pct
1 OSU 10 2 0.833
2 Ore 12 3 0.800
3 UCLA 7 5 0.583
4 Stan 7 5 0.583
5 ASU 8 7 0.533
6 Ariz 8 7 0.533
7 WSU 5 7 0.417
8 USC 6 9 0.400
9 Cal 5 10 0.333
10 Utah 4 11 0.267
11 UW 3 9 0.250
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4/15/2014 6:26:38 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
UW has made about 10 180s from last year. Stanford fell off the wagon somewhere. The Beaver is close to last year. Utah...what can I say....
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4/15/2014 9:54:22 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Special rules for this week:

The six series will score the same, except that each point you receive will count 1 - 1/6 points because I will be dividing by 7 series. In addition, you can receive up to one additional extra credit point for the first Oregon State-Sac State game (Monday) by guessing the correct combined score. For that game, I will divide the actual combined score by your guess. If you hit the number, whatever it is, you get 1.00 points; if you are under (or over) the actual combined score, I will divide the actual score by your guess (or vice versa, whichever is large) and you will get a fraction of a point. I will probably add this to your combined score before applying the above 1.167 point adjustment, just because it will be easier for me, so each extra point will be worth up to 1.167 total extra points.

Please do not select a number already picked by another person. If you do, I will assign you the next available number. Yes, it pays to be early.

For a scoring example, if you guess 5 combined runs and the actual combined score is 10, you would get 0.50 points, multiplied by 1.167 for a grand total of about 0.583 added to your score. Granted not a lot, but good enough for tiebreaking purposes.

This week’s games (ISR)
  • (76) WSU at (7) #10 Ore
  • (4) #15 UW at (58) Cal
  • (119) Ariz at (64) USC
  • (31) ASU at (41) Stan
  • (42) #27 UCLA at (152) Utah
  • (33) #19 CS Fullerton [XF] at (2) #3 Cal Poly [YCP]
  • Combined OSU/Sac State score Monday
An example ballot would look like this:
  • WSU 2-1
  • UW 2-1
  • Ariz 2-1
  • ASU 3-0
  • Utah 3-0
  • XF 3-0
  • OSU/Sac tiebreaker: 17
Week 10 Series
  • It’s too bad Wazzu played so poorly in nonconference games to start the season because they are playing good baseball now, and their early missteps might hurt them come selection time. Their only hope is to do well against the top teams in the Pac. That’s where Oregon comes in. Taking two from the Ducks in Eugene would do wonders for the Cougs. The Ducks, on the other hand, need to get on the top side after two consecutive conference series losses.
  • The Huskies continue to climb in the polls, both human and computer-generated. It’s hard to imagine a Cal team that needed ASU to commit suicide in the late innings Sunday to miss a sweep can avoid getting swept at home by a Dawg team that is firing on all cylinders. The Golden PedoBears had two chances in that Sunday game to run their record of sweeping (once) and getting swept (twice) to four, but narrowly skirted away from uniform disaster. This week they could probably get swept back into the rhythm of failure.
  • Arizona got a confidence boost after taking the rubber game Sunday against UCLA in the bottom of the 9th inning, and they could use that mental energy to perform against yet another reeling USC team that had high hopes to start the season but is just cruising at sea level. Anything can happen in this series. But one thing we know for certain: Regardless of who wins, both teams will still be under .500 in conference and in the bottom half of the standings.
  • UCLA has a chance to lick its wounds by beating the red-haired stepchildren of the Pac. The Utes played USC tough for two games before getting blown in the rubber match. UCLA won’t be as kind.
  • LATE ADDITION: Some could argue this is the best matchup this week. Although Stanford at 4-8 is tied with Cal for the second-worst conference record, not to mention 3 games below .500 overall, one gets the feeling this freshman-laden team is going to mature soon this season. They have already been battle-tested. Not only have they faced the conference’s three top-ranked clubs (and emerged with a 3-6 record), they also have the ISR #1 toughest strength of schedule, so their (now) #39 ISR hints at hidden potency. ASU, with a better record, also sits a little higher in ISR. Theirs is the better offensive team (Stanford slightly better on the mound). Facing the Cardinal in their silicon forest should prove a fairly even match for the Devils.
  • By popular demand we head back to the Big West for our non-Pac series, where traditional national powerhouse Cal State Fullerton takes on upstart #3 Cal Poly. The Titans tout pitching aces Justin Garza and Thomas Eshelman, but their prowess on the mound hasn’t resulted in the expected win total, and CSUF sits with a pedestrian 18-13, 3-3 record, having just lost two of three very close games to UC Santa Barbara. The Gauchos played Cal Poly tough the weekend before, although they lost two of three to the Mustangs. Interpolations?
  • The Beavers have a bye this weekend and will resume Pac-12 play at home against Oregon in this year’s (very early) Rivalry Week. But they do play two games in the NoCal delta, taking on Sacramento State Monday at Raley Field, home of the triple-A Sacramento River Cats of the Pacific Coast League, then playing at Sac State’s home field Tuesday. The Hornets rest atop the WAC standings with a respectable 21-14 overall record, 10-2 in conference. The WAC is weaker than in recent years, with only Grand Canyon U accompanying Sac State with an overall winning record, and the Hornets have few signature wins over top-quality opponents: Texas A&M (1-2), Utah (2-2), and...that’s it. Overall ERA is 3.37. BA is .275. Average home attendance is 363. I’m guessing they will have a season high attendance figure at Raley Field against a top ten Oregon State team. I’m also guessing the Beavers will score at will in a tuneup for the Civil War series, with game two probably higher than game one’s total. Sac State’s runs scored versus runs scored against is 136-182 over 35 games: 3.9 to 5.2, to give you an idea.
There, Mr. V.
edited by Dodger Matt on 4/16/2014
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4/16/2014 12:29:53 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
Here it goes:
Ore 2-1
UW 3-0
USC 2-1
ASU 2-1
UCLA 3-0
YCP 2-1
OSU/SAC 14

Working nights has its advantages. I got first pick at the tie breaker.
edited by Florida Beaver on 4/16/2014
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4/16/2014 9:21:28 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Ore 3-0
UW 3-0
USC 2-1
ASU 2-1
UCLA 3-0
YCP 2-1
OSU/SAC 13
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4/16/2014 12:04:18 PM

OregonG20
OregonG20
Posts: 32
Ore 2-1
UW 3-0
USC 2-1
Stan 2-1
UCLA 2-1
YCP 2-1
OSU/SAC 10
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4/16/2014 2:08:12 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
Ore 2-1
Cal 2-1
USC 2-1
Stan 2-1
UCLA 2-1
YCP 2-1
OSU/Sac 15
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4/16/2014 5:04:54 PM

WildCard85
WildCard85
Posts: 78
Wow...no preview for ASU @ Stanford ?
Anyhow :
WSU 2-1
UW 2-1
USC 2-1
Stan 2-1
UCLA 2-1
XF 2-1
OSU/SAC 17
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4/16/2014 7:21:04 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
WildCard85 wrote:
Wow...no preview for ASU @ Stanford ?

Arrgh. That was not intentional. Trying to hurry too much. I'll fix that....
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4/16/2014 7:30:35 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Ore 2-1
UW 3-0
Ariz 2-1
ASU 2-1
UCLA 3-0
YCP 2-1
OSU/Sac 11
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4/16/2014 8:28:23 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1458
Ore 2-1
UW 2-1
Ariz 2-1
ASU 3-0
UCLA 3-0
YCP 2-1
OSU/Sac tiebreaker: 9
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4/17/2014 1:14:57 PM

Rowdy
Rowdy
Posts: 87
WSU 2-1
UW 3-0
Ariz 2-1
ASU
2-1
UCLA 2-1
XF 2-1
OSU/SAC 6
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4/17/2014 5:44:53 PM

WildCard85
WildCard85
Posts: 78
Thanks DM ! Better late then never !
Heading out to Sunken Diamond now, GO CARD !
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4/18/2014 6:32:22 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1458
Beaver fans, in case you didn't know, Kavin Keyes is out for 5 weeks with a broken thumb.

http://www.buildingthedam.com/2014/4/16/5623374/Oregon-states-kavin-keyes-shelved-for-most-of-rest-of-regular-season
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4/19/2014 12:22:07 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Well that is good news for the ducks. He has killed us in the past, and we will need everything we can get. With Krook out, I am skeptical.. but hey you never know.
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