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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » PG64: NCAA Postseason Projections (4/14) -HAVE Qs?

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4/14/2011 2:03:05 AM

Kendall
Kendall
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Here are the latest postseason projections ... leave your question and I'll get to it AND address it in my "inside the projections" analysis later this morning. Thanks.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5480
edited by Kendall on 4/14/2011

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/14/2011 7:18:26 AM

ucfalum08
ucfalum08
Posts: 42
How many C-USA teams do you see making it in the end? You currently have 5 in but 3 are on the bubble. Is it more realistic to only expect 3?
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4/14/2011 7:31:20 AM

eagleboy415
eagleboy415
Posts: 61
What's your justification for UCF and Tulane over ECU?
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4/14/2011 8:01:11 AM

Kenny Powers
Kenny Powers
Posts: 32
I don't get the assumption that A&M will win the Big 12 and get the Automatic Bid over Texas

Both teams are tied in the standings, Texas has won 8 of 9 overall, A&M has lost 4 of 6 overall. Texas has won the conference title the last 2 years, has beaten A&M 11 out of the last 12 times head to head in the regular season, and when they play at the end of the season 2 of the 3 will be in Austin.

Those factors should give Texas the benefit of the doubt, not Texas A&M
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4/14/2011 9:13:21 AM

rwnatc
rwnatc
Posts: 23
What's your justification for giving ucla a number 3 seed with a bad record and NUMBER 75 RPI? But you will leave out ETSU who is number 20 in the RPI?

You are out of your mind.
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4/14/2011 9:39:14 AM

tater head
tater head
Posts: 26
KR, still se the man-crush on Baylor, huh? 3-7 in their last 10, 5-7 in conference and you still see them making the tourney?? Hopefully A&M will put them out of their misery this weekend.

Could say the same for LSU. No team with a 3-9 conference record should qualify.
edited by tater head on 4/14/2011
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4/14/2011 9:44:45 AM

Kendall
Kendall
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Posts: 7495
rwnatc wrote:
What's your justification for giving ucla a number 3 seed with a bad record and NUMBER 75 RPI? But you will leave out ETSU who is number 20 in the RPI?

You are out of your mind.


Very easy justification on that one. First of all, ETSU has an incredibly inflated RPI right now. Give it credit for scheduling in smart fashion, but I highly doubt it's close to being one of the Top 21 teams in America right now. Second, you think I'm "crazy", but let's compare some notes. ETSU has a 2-4 record vs. RPI Top 50, UCLA has a 2-3 record vs. RPI Top 50. ETSU has 7 wins vs. RPI Top 100 teams, UCLA has 8 wins vs. RPI Top 100 teams. But here's where the kicker comes in. ETSU is 1 1/2 games behind Stetson in the A-Sun title race at 11-5 in conference. UCLA, meanwhile, is SECOND in the Pac-10, one of the top power conferences with a 7-2 record. Sorry to say, but I'd be absolutely shocked if the second place Pac-10 team didn't get into the Field of 64 (as of today) over the second place A-Sun club. On top of that, the NCAA would love to showcase the two premier arms for UCLA in the postseason, and yes, as stupid as it is, that IS a factor when teams are on the board for the postseason (no matter how much the committee might say things like that matter). Perception is reality.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/14/2011 10:45:03 AM

Kendall
Kendall
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Posts: 7495
ucfalum08 wrote:
How many C-USA teams do you see making it in the end? You currently have 5 in but 3 are on the bubble. Is it more realistic to only expect 3?


Yeah, the fact I have five in right now is the main reason East Carolina is not included. No chance in heck C-USA gets six postseason bids, not this year at least. I think four teams will "probably" make it in the end. Even five is likely stretching it, IMO.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/14/2011 10:50:49 AM

Kendall
Kendall
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Posts: 7495
eagleboy415 wrote:
What's your justification for UCF and Tulane over ECU?


Eagleboy,
Great question. And here's my thinking on that. First of all, go look at the conference standings and you'll notice that UCF and Tulane are each a game back of ECU, with ECU having a slight RPI advantage over UCF and significant RPI advantage over Tulane. However, go look at marquee wins, and marquee series wins, and you'll notice that UCF and Tulane have ECU beat by a mile, especially Tulane.

East Carolina's marquee series wins: Memphis (85 RPI)
Tulane's marquee series wins: @ Ole Miss (35 RPI), @ UCF (28 RPI), Wichita State (crappy RPI, but better than RPI indicates)
UCF's marquee series wins/wins: @ Rice (20 RPI), Also midweek wins over Florida and Stetson, plus tournament wins over Alabama and SE Louisiana, both teams with solid RPIs.

East Carolina is the last team out because I just can't see that many C-USA teams making it in .... plus I think UCF and Tulane simply have better resumes at this point. The interesting team is UAB.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/14/2011 10:53:17 AM

weg313
weg313
Posts: 134
Kendall wrote:
ucfalum08 wrote:
How many C-USA teams do you see making it in the end? You currently have 5 in but 3 are on the bubble. Is it more realistic to only expect 3?


Yeah, the fact I have five in right now is the main reason East Carolina is not included. No chance in heck C-USA gets six postseason bids, not this year at least. I think four teams will "probably" make it in the end. Even five is likely stretching it, IMO.


And what's your justification in saying this, kendall? You do realize C-USA currently ranks #4 in conference RPI and is within earshot of overtaking the Big 12 for the #3 position. I'd be very, very surprised, barring a season-ending collapse by a couple teams, if four C-USA teams make the dance, and five could very well make it.

As for your projections, are you trying to make the Houston regional the toughest in the history of NCAA baseball? You currently have Rice hosting (though they continue to be unranked in your poll), with TCU #2 and UCLA #3, despite both these teams appearing in your Top 25, and Coastal #4? How the heck is Coastal a #4 seed?

--
In Wayne Graham we trust.
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4/14/2011 10:53:17 AM

Kendall
Kendall
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Kenny Powers wrote:
I don't get the assumption that A&M will win the Big 12 and get the Automatic Bid over Texas

Both teams are tied in the standings, Texas has won 8 of 9 overall, A&M has lost 4 of 6 overall. Texas has won the conference title the last 2 years, has beaten A&M 11 out of the last 12 times head to head in the regular season, and when they play at the end of the season 2 of the 3 will be in Austin.

Those factors should give Texas the benefit of the doubt, not Texas A&M


The two teams have similar resumes right now, and Texas is not far behind at all, actually right there. UT's RPI does, though, need to improve from what it is right now. From what I've seen of both clubs, I think A&M is a better team on the weekend right now, but you're most definitely right on that UT has essentially owned A&M on the diamond as of late. However, the projections are as of today, and A&M, IMO, is a better baseball team.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/14/2011 10:55:21 AM

Kendall
Kendall
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Posts: 7495
tater head wrote:
KR, still se the man-crush on Baylor, huh? 3-7 in their last 10, 5-7 in conference and you still see them making the tourney?? Hopefully A&M will put them out of their misery this weekend.

Could say the same for LSU. No team with a 3-9 conference record should qualify.
edited by tater head on 4/14/2011


When compared to other No. 3 seeds out there, Baylor actually has a very solid resume. It's strange, I know. For instance, Baylor is 4-3 vs. RPI Top 25, 8-7 vs. RPI Top 50 and 13-12 vs. RPI Top 100. That's actually pretty dang solid for a No. 3 seed. There's no doubt in my mind BU would be in he field if the season ended today.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/14/2011 1:36:52 PM

EaglehasLanded
EaglehasLanded
Posts: 43
Just a few thoughts Kendall:
1) I thought teams were given bids, not conferences. If C-USA has 6 deserving teams, then they should receive 6 bids.

2) You can't use one standard for one team and another standard for another team. You say Wichita St. is better than their rpi, well I would argue that Memphis is also better than their rpi. I would say the Memphis series win for ECU is better than the Wichita St. series win for Tulane.

3) not sure how you can justify Baylor and UCLA in the regional field and not ECU. UCLA has an rpi of 67 and is 8-9 vs. the Top 100 rpi. Baylor has an rpi of 36, and as you stated are 13-12 vs. the Top 100. ECU has an rpi of 26 and is 11-12 vs. the Top 100. Of those I would take ECU and Baylor. UCLA may have some elite pitchers, but they haven't won the games at this point to be included. We will see how they do once they hit the tougher part of their schedule with Arizona, Stanford and Oregon St. coming up.
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4/14/2011 2:51:49 PM

rwnatc
rwnatc
Posts: 23
Kendall wrote:
rwnatc wrote:
What's your justification for giving ucla a number 3 seed with a bad record and NUMBER 75 RPI? But you will leave out ETSU who is number 20 in the RPI?

You are out of your mind.


Very easy justification on that one. First of all, ETSU has an incredibly inflated RPI right now. Give it credit for scheduling in smart fashion, but I highly doubt it's close to being one of the Top 21 teams in America right now. Second, you think I'm "crazy", but let's compare some notes. ETSU has a 2-4 record vs. RPI Top 50, UCLA has a 2-3 record vs. RPI Top 50. ETSU has 7 wins vs. RPI Top 100 teams, UCLA has 8 wins vs. RPI Top 100 teams. But here's where the kicker comes in. ETSU is 1 1/2 games behind Stetson in the A-Sun title race at 11-5 in conference. UCLA, meanwhile, is SECOND in the Pac-10, one of the top power conferences with a 7-2 record. Sorry to say, but I'd be absolutely shocked if the second place Pac-10 team didn't get into the Field of 64 (as of today) over the second place A-Sun club. On top of that, the NCAA would love to showcase the two premier arms for UCLA in the postseason, and yes, as stupid as it is, that IS a factor when teams are on the board for the postseason (no matter how much the committee might say things like that matter). Perception is reality.



And what about Jacksonville?

48 rpi. 2-2vs top 50. 10-4vs top 100. so their resume is better than both of those teams.
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4/14/2011 3:08:22 PM

Kendall
Kendall
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Posts: 7495
EaglehasLanded wrote:
Just a few thoughts Kendall:
1) I thought teams were given bids, not conferences. If C-USA has 6 deserving teams, then they should receive 6 bids.
2) You can't use one standard for one team and another standard for another team. You say Wichita St. is better than their rpi, well I would argue that Memphis is also better than their rpi. I would say the Memphis series win for ECU is better than the Wichita St. series win for Tulane.

3) not sure how you can justify Baylor and UCLA in the regional field and not ECU. UCLA has an rpi of 67 and is 8-9 vs. the Top 100 rpi. Baylor has an rpi of 36, and as you stated are 13-12 vs. the Top 100. ECU has an rpi of 26 and is 11-12 vs. the Top 100. Of those I would take ECU and Baylor. UCLA may have some elite pitchers, but they haven't won the games at this point to be included. We will see how they do once they hit the tougher part of their schedule with Arizona, Stanford and Oregon St. coming up.


-- 1. The NCAA Committee can say all day long about how teams, not conferences get bids, but I'm telling you right now I'd be absolutely SHOCKED if the NCAA even considered the idea of giving 6 of 9 CUSA teams postseason bids. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but the committee most certainly considers what conference a team is in. Again, I've gotten plenty of inside information in the past to suggest this.

-- 2. You bring up a good point, and I don't disagree with you. Personally, we should throw out both teams in that mix.

-- 3. You need to look deeper than the numbers on that one, but you bring up a great point. Baylor's road series win over Georgia and 2-1 record in the Houston College Classic trumps anything East Carolina has done this season on the weekend, which in the eyes of the committee, is the most important thing.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/14/2011 8:19:21 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2102
Kendall, this early in the season, when you are really just giving a snapshot of the field if the season ended today, are you actively pairing the 1 to 8 seeds with specific 9 to 16 seeds? Or did Oregon State magically get paired with the Tar Heels?
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4/14/2011 8:27:43 PM

Kendall
Kendall
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Posts: 7495
Dodger Matt wrote:
Kendall, this early in the season, when you are really just giving a snapshot of the field if the season ended today, are you actively pairing the 1 to 8 seeds with specific 9 to 16 seeds? Or did Oregon State magically get paired with the Tar Heels?


Matt,
Just putting together super regional matchups I feel like the NCAA would look at.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/14/2011 9:45:29 PM

jdh008
jdh008
Posts: 55
Obviously I understand you not having them in at this point, but just how many wins do the UH Cougars need to get in? Their computer numbers will help them, but right now it's all about piling up wins for them. Boyd's needs report has the Cougars only needing to be a couple games over .500 to be in the top 32 in the RPI, but that likely won't be enough to get in. Do they need 33 wins? 34? 35 even?

--
TheFanManifesto.com
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4/15/2011 3:58:02 PM

MoreCowbell23
MoreCowbell23
Posts: 19
Kendall, I see that you have Mississippi State as the 2 seed matched up with the #1 national seed. Does that mean you consider them the weakest 2 seed? And if so, why? I see that you have Auburn and Ole Miss going to Regionals where the host isn't a Top 8 seed. MSU swept Auburn and clearly has a better resume than Ole Miss. I would think that they would be ranked higher than those two teams.
edited by MoreCowbell23 on 4/15/2011
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4/15/2011 4:40:35 PM

FullertonBaseballFan
FullertonBaseballFan
Posts: 146
MoreCowbell23, only the top eight teams are seeded. That's it. The other #1 seeds aren't placed 9-16, they are matched up geographically with nation seeds and also 1 seeds from the same conf cannot play each other in a super. #2's, #3's and #4's have no priority in any way, shape or form except that they try to send them to a regional in their geographic area, if possible. That's why you have FSU or Miami playing Florida so much in the post-season. Same way with Fullerton and UCLA (used to be Fullerton and ASU but they've gotten away from that lately with both usually being national seeds).
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