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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-10: Week 12 predictions

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5/5/2011 7:09:15 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2075
This is one of those odd weeks, with only three conference matchups, three nonconference series, and one team (USC) taking a bye. Because we have to assume that there will be an equal number of series (five) every week, whenever we have more than five, I have to multiply the raw scores by the number of series divided by 5. What this means is we'll have fractional scores and fractional averages. It's good...allows more separation. It usually means the possibility of higher scores too, so a chance to raise your averages.

Here are the games. Numbers are ISRs as of 5/5.
  • #15 Cal at #8 OSU
  • #21 UCLA at #50 Ore
  • #166 UW at #13 Stan
  • #43 LBS at #5 ASU
  • #64 UNLV at #49 WSU
  • #243 Alcorn at #25 Ariz
Tops this week is Cal at Oregon State. OSU has won all five conference series this year. The Beavers take on a good Cal team, currently in 3rd place and 2.5 game back of the Beavers.
With a sweep, Cal would knock the Beavers out of first. They wouldn't quite swap places with the Beavs, but it would be a huge boost for Cal, putting them within a game of ASU for the lead.

UCLA visits Eugene to battle the resurgent Ducks, who have shown a little spark of late with a midweek win over in-state rival OSU and a very close series loss to Cal, in which each game was decided by one run and an average game score of 3.3 to 3.0. Whichever team decides to score a couple of runs in this pitching-laden series might do just enough to win the three-game set.

The weakest conference series belongs to UW at Stanford. Even if the Cardinal wins this series, expect their RPI to drop. BTW, expect the Cardinal to win also.

In the nonconference series, we have two interesting matchups. First Long Beach at ASU. This is CSULB's EIGHTH different Pac-10 opponent this year. The Dirtbags are 7-9 against the Pac, with four games left. (They play one game against UCLA next week.) They've beaten Oregon (2-1) and USC (2-0); they've lost to UA (2-1), OSU (2-1), Stanford (2-1), UCLA (1-0), and Cal (1-0).

UNLV of the Mountain West actually has a pretty decent record (28-18), with wins over Texas Tech, TCU, Arizona, and Baylor. Wazzu, at 19-20 and barely alive for a postseason chance, could break the .500 mark with a sweep.

And finally, some team known as Alcorn State (from the Southwestern Athletic Conference) has kindly offered to be sacrificial lambs for the Wildcats. The fact that Alcorn State is in 1st place in the SWAC, with a 19-4 conference record, and a 10-0 winning streak doesn't change that ISR of 243. And their nonconference record is 3-16, with two wins against D2 Illinois-Springfield and one against Southern from the...SWAC. Yes their one D1 “nonconference” win is against a fellow conference member in a nonconference game. An easy 6 points here....

The reminders:
  • Vote for the team you expect to win and whether the results will be 3-0 or 2-1.
  • Pick teams in the exact order posted. This makes it easier for me to tabulate.
  • Use the team abbreviations listed in the sample below. (This means NO to "Furd" "UA" "WASH", etc.)
  • You can change your picks up until first pitch of the first game.
  • There are no prizes. We play for glory.
Points are awarded in the following manner:

Pick . . Result . . Pts.
3-0 . . . 3-0 . . . . . 6
. . . . . . 2-1 . . . . . 3
. . . . . . 1-2 . . . . . 1
. . . . . . 0-3 . . . . . 0

2-1 . . . 3-0 . . . . . 3
. . . . . . 2-1 . . . . . 4
. . . . . . 1-2 . . . . . 2
. . . . . . 0-3 . . . . . 1

A sample poll would look like this:

OSU 2-1
Ore 2-1
Stan 2-1
LBS 3-0
WSU 3-0
Alcorn 3-0
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5/5/2011 7:22:47 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1064
Going out on a limb with 4 sweeps this week

OSU 3-0 (The beavs come back hungry after the duck loss)
UCLA 2-1 (the ducks losing ways resume)
Stan 3-0 (no way UW even comes close here)
ASU 3-0 ('nuff said)
WSU 2-1 (at home gives wazzu the edge)
Ariz 3-0 (Alcorn? Really? Alcorn?)

Thanks DM. I really like doing this every week, no matter if I am good, bad or indifferent in my picks.
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5/5/2011 7:37:14 PM

rec1347
rec1347
Posts: 48
OSU 2-1
UCLA 2-1
Stan 3-0
ASU 2-1
UNLV 2-1
Ariz 3-0
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5/5/2011 7:45:58 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 985
With big risk comes big reward (or failure...)

OSU 3-0
UCLA 2-1
Stan 3-0
ASU 3-0
WSU 3-0
Ariz 3-0 (though I'd say 10-0 if they played 10x)
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5/5/2011 7:53:19 PM

BeaverBeliever20
BeaverBeliever20
Posts: 129
OSU 3-0
UCLA 2-1
Stanford 3-0
ASU 3-0
WSU 2-1
Arizona 3-0

Never been as confident in picks as this week.
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5/5/2011 7:57:43 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2075
Florida Beaver wrote:
Thanks DM. I really like doing this every week, no matter if I am good, bad or indifferent in my picks.

Cool. I like doing it too, but I feel like I'm cheering in the wind without the occasional props, so thanks. I was almost afraid I had missed the boat this week and lost a n early start Thursday night game cuz I misread the schedule. But I am still a day later than usual. So I apologize to anyone who was expecting them yesterday. This could be our highest scoring week ever. Four sweeps does not seem implausible, and it could be more. The early votes seem to indicate this as well....
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5/5/2011 8:01:59 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1254
OSU 2-1
Ore 2-1

Stan 3-0
ARIZ ST. 3-0
WSU 3-0
ARIZ 3-0
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5/5/2011 8:18:40 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2075
OpihiMan wrote:
With big risk comes big reward (or failure...)

OSU 3-0
UCLA 2-1
Stan 3-0
ASU 3-0
WSU 3-0
Ariz 3-0 (though I'd say 10-0 if they played 10x)


Opihi Man votes for 5 sweeps. Do I hear 6? Going...going.......
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5/5/2011 8:23:39 PM

YellowlabOSU
YellowlabOSU
Posts: 32
OSU 3-0
UCLA 3-0
Stan 2-1
ASU 3-0
WSU 2-1
Ariz 3-0
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5/5/2011 8:51:16 PM

MostUnknown
MostUnknown
Posts: 156
OSU 2-1
UCLA 3-0
Stan 2-1
ASU 3-0
WSU 2-1
Ariz 3-0

Pretty easy picks this week. UCLA rebounds against an iffy Duck team. Alcorn(Really?) gets served up to the wolves. Cal's not gonna get swept.
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5/5/2011 9:07:22 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1064
Dodger Matt wrote:
Florida Beaver wrote:
Thanks DM. I really like doing this every week, no matter if I am good, bad or indifferent in my picks.

Cool. I like doing it too, but I feel like I'm cheering in the wind without the occasional props, so thanks. I was almost afraid I had missed the boat this week and lost a n early start Thursday night game cuz I misread the schedule. But I am still a day later than usual. So I apologize to anyone who was expecting them yesterday. This could be our highest scoring week ever. Four sweeps does not seem implausible, and it could be more. The early votes seem to indicate this as well....


Trust me when I say the Beaver Nation (or the ones that visit and post here) are more than grateful for your dedication to the weekly picks. Never doubt that we enjoy and appreciate you in your quest to bring left coast baseball to the rest of the uninitiated, uninformed and ignorant right coast. (BTW, the gators lose their first weekend game to the Razorbacks. Go Arkansas!!!!)
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5/5/2011 11:35:00 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2075
I won't be doing the pick analysis this weekend because of Mother's Day and anniversary celebrations colliding, but so far it looks like overwhelming favorites for OSU (100% win, 50+% sweep), UCLA (90% win, 20% sweep), Stanford (100%, 65%), ASU (100%, 90%), Wazzu (90%, 20%), and Arizona (100%, 100%!). So if you need more analysis than that, then either you're too addicted to baseball stats or you need some remedial math.

Here are my picks, and if I don't post game summaries for Friday, somebody else feel free to. Cool

OSU 3-0
UCLA 2-1
Stan 2-1
ASU 3-0
WSU 2-1
Ariz 3-0

Most of you guys make me feel like a fraidy-cat for only picking 3 sweeps.
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5/5/2011 11:35:58 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2098
cal 2-1
ORE 3-0
Stan 2-1
ASU 2-1
WSU 2-1
Ariz 2-1
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5/5/2011 11:36:51 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2098
Going for the throat. This could make up for my lost week. Watch out FB..
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5/5/2011 11:42:09 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2098
Oh shoot- Alcorn? I should take that one back. I thought they were playing Hartford..
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5/5/2011 11:47:36 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2098
I might be in the dumper after that vote. Oh well. I could come out smelling like roses..
Going to be another great week of ball. Good to be back after that week off. Facebook has nothing on this site.. lol.
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5/5/2011 11:49:12 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2098
Riverduck wrote:
cal 2-1
ORE 3-0
Stan 2-1
ASU 2-1
WSU 2-1
Ariz 2-1

Alcorn could be the darkhorse. 1 win would help me out
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5/5/2011 11:50:29 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2098
Riverduck wrote:
Riverduck wrote:
cal 2-1
ORE 3-0
Stan 2-1
ASU 2-1
WSU 2-1
Ariz 2-1

Alcorn could be the darkhorse. 1 win would help me out

I also should have put down ORE- 0-3.. lol
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5/5/2011 11:51:58 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2098
BeaverBob wrote:
OSU 2-1
Ore 2-1

Stan 3-0
ARIZ ST. 3-0
WSU 3-0
ARIZ 3-0

BB- that looks like the one that will net the win. Good picks
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5/6/2011 4:12:22 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1064
creekbird,
You are a funny, funny man (that's an assumption, but you don't "sound" female). This site is way much better than rivals. Thanks Kendall.
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