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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » National Seeds after this weekend's losses

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5/15/2011 9:10:26 PM

SouthernBeaver
SouthernBeaver
Posts: 200
How will this look to shape up, considering (using Kendal's ranks):

-#3 Vandy lost a series to #7 Florida
-#8 Arizona State lost a series to (unranked U$C)

Some other notable losses from teams that still won the series:
-#1 UVA lost one game to #19 Miami
-#2 South Carolina lost one game to #24 Arkansas
-#5 Oregon State blew a 6-0 lead against (Pac-10-worst) Washington (though did win their 7th straight Pac-10 series)
-#6 Florida State lost one game to #15 North Carolina
-#7 Florida lost one game to #3 Vandy

#4 Texas was the only top-8 team to not lose a game.

Initially my though was about Oregon State because its RPI lowered to 20 (it even lowered when it BEAT UW...*grumble*), but with the Vandy and ASU series losses, and since only one team escaped the weekend scott-free, it got me curious what the overall picture is looking at now.
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5/16/2011 6:46:13 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2119
What about Oregon almost sweeping Stanford.
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5/16/2011 8:25:20 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 114
Riverduck wrote:
What about Oregon almost sweeping Stanford.


Oregon and Stanford aren't in any national seed discussions.
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5/16/2011 9:10:37 AM

NolesFanJosh
NolesFanJosh
Posts: 127
Florida State lost a game to NC State. I think the team that got the biggest boost, was Georgia Tech, beating UNC and seeing Arizona State fall to USC. Florida State by winning the series remains in the discussion, and now I think the winner of Rice/Southern Miss next weekend keeps themselves in the conversation as well as Texas A&M.

But overall, I think the TOP of the TOP, remains much the same, UVa, Vandy, Florida, South Carolina are all fine, they all won the weekend series, their RPI's remain in great shape, if anyone was greatly affected, it's Arizona State and Southern Miss by dropping 2 @ Houston.
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5/16/2011 6:08:41 PM

shoelessT
shoelessT
Posts: 118
NolesFan,
Do you think Vandy is fine? I only ask because I wonder if the committee will give 3 SEC East teams. I know they don't mind giving 3 national seeds to a conference but 3 in just one side of a conference? I think Vandy should be EASILY fine. I am just wondering what you think?

Also, as an FSU fan, who do you think deserves a national seed between FSU and GTech? I personally think GTech but I think FSU will get it.

Also, no way Southern Miss should be in the national seed discussion. No way.
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5/16/2011 7:10:48 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2086
Shoeless, you have to forget conference divisions; they are meaningless. If the SEC East has three top eight teams, there is no reason all three should not be national seeds. I can see Florida, Vandy, and SoCar getting them, and I would not be upset by that either.

SMiss? Yeah, right, I don't think so either. But a #1, fine.

As for FSU, GTech, and UNC, too much baseball to be played between them for me to decide. But my guess is two of them make it.
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5/16/2011 9:19:47 PM

NolesFanJosh
NolesFanJosh
Posts: 127
Shoeless, Vandy is fine, RPI is great, overall record, record against RPI Top 25, 50, 100 is great...Vandy will be just fine, they may not get the #1 overall, but they'll definitely be Top 8. Lock it up.

Taking obvious 'bias' aside, GT has 2 losses outside of Top 100, and FSU has a feather in cap by beating Fla 3 out of 4 (sure it was midweek but the committee will look past that). I think those put FSU ahead albeit SLIGHTLY. It is very close, and it may come down to when they meet in pool play in ACC Tournament (FSU would be #2 seed as division champ and Tech has best record outside of division winners thus #3)

The ONLY way even remotely POSSIBLE that Southern Miss even THINKS they can get a National Seed, is if Ariz State slips up again, FSU and Tech lose this wkend and each go 1-2 in pool play or worse AND they sweep Rice and win Conf USA Tournament.
edited by NolesFanJosh on 5/16/2011
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5/17/2011 8:18:19 AM

GTbaseball
GTbaseball
Posts: 103
NolesFanJosh wrote:
Shoeless, Vandy is fine, RPI is great, overall record, record against RPI Top 25, 50, 100 is great...Vandy will be just fine, they may not get the #1 overall, but they'll definitely be Top 8. Lock it up.

Taking obvious 'bias' aside, GT has 2 losses outside of Top 100, and FSU has a feather in cap by beating Fla 3 out of 4 (sure it was midweek but the committee will look past that). I think those put FSU ahead albeit SLIGHTLY. It is very close, and it may come down to when they meet in pool play in ACC Tournament (FSU would be #2 seed as division champ and Tech has best record outside of division winners thus #3)

The ONLY way even remotely POSSIBLE that Southern Miss even THINKS they can get a National Seed, is if Ariz State slips up again, FSU and Tech lose this wkend and each go 1-2 in pool play or worse AND they sweep Rice and win Conf USA Tournament.
edited by NolesFanJosh on 5/16/2011



Hey, its not our fault UGA sucks..
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5/17/2011 9:21:59 AM

shoelessT
shoelessT
Posts: 118
Don't get me wrong, I think Vanderbilt deserves a top 8 seed. In fact, I think they should be top 5 still (not that top 5 is different than top 8 but you get the point). I still think GTech deserves it over FSU, and both may get it, but the fact that GTech swept Miami and took the series vs UNC is what does it for me where as I feel FSU's big wins are mostly midweek (UF, Stetson, Jax). I know both have a great resume, and if FSU wins series vs Clemson then I think they should as well be in top 8 but as of right now I think it should be (in no order)...UF, S.Car, Vandy, UVa, GTech, Oregon State, Arizona State, and Texas. FSU would be my #9 right now.
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5/17/2011 11:47:32 AM

NolesFanJosh
NolesFanJosh
Posts: 127
After that weekend series loss to Southern Cal, ASU is now behind FSU resume-wise. 12-5 against teams outside of Top 100. Similar records, FSU has better RPI, and SOS. With FSU/GT, it's really really close and both have things going for them in their favor, if both win their weekend series', I think it will come down to FSU/GT game in Pool Play at ACC Championship for a pretty much 'gimme' spot as a National Seed.

Right now, Top 8 should be this:
1- Virginia
2- South Carolina
3- Florida
4- Vandy
5- Oregon State
6- Winner of Tex/A&M series
7/8- FSU/GT
Arizona State is right behind hoping for a stumble from either FSU or GT.
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5/17/2011 7:09:28 PM

NolesFanJosh
NolesFanJosh
Posts: 127
And now, ETSU beats Tech tonight 8-6, Jacksonville is ahead of Florida right now, why do I bring that up, a win over Florida would vault Jacksonville back inside Top 50 of RPI thus giving FSU 2 more wins vs RPI Top 50 .

Now Arizona State, UNC (if they beat UVa in series), and possibly loser of Tex/A&M series, and even slim chance for Southern Miss or Rice (if either sweeps and wins Conf USA Tournament) are all right back in it with Georgia Tech in a battle for the #8 National Seed. I can now feel a lil' bit safer in putting FSU as #7 Overall.
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5/18/2011 9:07:19 AM

EaglehasLanded
EaglehasLanded
Posts: 43
shoelessT wrote:
NolesFan,
Do you think Vandy is fine? I only ask because I wonder if the committee will give 3 SEC East teams. I know they don't mind giving 3 national seeds to a conference but 3 in just one side of a conference? I think Vandy should be EASILY fine. I am just wondering what you think?

Also, as an FSU fan, who do you think deserves a national seed between FSU and GTech? I personally think GTech but I think FSU will get it.

Also, no way Southern Miss should be in the national seed discussion. No way.


We get it, you don't like Southern Miss.
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5/18/2011 9:12:46 AM

EaglehasLanded
EaglehasLanded
Posts: 43
NolesFanJosh wrote:
And now, ETSU beats Tech tonight 8-6, Jacksonville is ahead of Florida right now, why do I bring that up, a win over Florida would vault Jacksonville back inside Top 50 of RPI thus giving FSU 2 more wins vs RPI Top 50 .

Now Arizona State, UNC (if they beat UVa in series), and possibly loser of Tex/A&M series, and even slim chance for Southern Miss or Rice (if either sweeps and wins Conf USA Tournament) are all right back in it with Georgia Tech in a battle for the #8 National Seed. I can now feel a lil' bit safer in putting FSU as #7 Overall.


I definitely think my team worked ourselves into a deep hole last week in Houston, and I even said in another thread that I hoped we weren't looking ahead to the Rice series or we would be in trouble.
I also think our chances at a National Seed are very slim, but I don't think we or Rice need to sweep to be in the discussion. I believe winning 2/3 for either team and then winning the C-USA tourney, which would require at least 3, possibly 4 wins (probably at least 1, maybe 2 against Top 25 rpi teams) would put one of those teams in the discussion. Not sure it would be enough to actually garner a National Seed without some other teams slipping up, but it would give that team a fighting chance.
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5/18/2011 9:59:08 AM

weg313
weg313
Posts: 134
Eagle, don't mind Kendall, who for whatever reason continues to believe there's some big gap between C-USA and the Big 12 this year when, in reality, there is very little. He continues to push A&M's resume over Rice's, when then are on par, especially when you factor in Rice's significant edge in head-to-head (2-0) and road record.

--
In Wayne Graham we trust.
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5/18/2011 9:59:38 AM

shoelessT
shoelessT
Posts: 118
EaglehasLanded wrote:
shoelessT wrote:
NolesFan,
Do you think Vandy is fine? I only ask because I wonder if the committee will give 3 SEC East teams. I know they don't mind giving 3 national seeds to a conference but 3 in just one side of a conference? I think Vandy should be EASILY fine. I am just wondering what you think?

Also, as an FSU fan, who do you think deserves a national seed between FSU and GTech? I personally think GTech but I think FSU will get it.

Also, no way Southern Miss should be in the national seed discussion. No way.


We get it, you don't like Southern Miss.


Oh I forgot I can't be critical of Southern Miss. Sorry. Yes they should be the #1 overall seed. I have nothing against Southern Miss except that I just don't think they are that good. I actually think that they probably will end up being matched up with national seed FSU in Supers and trust me...I will be the biggest Southern Miss fan ever if that happens. Nothing against Southern Miss but I just don't see what is so great about their resume.
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5/18/2011 11:29:28 AM


Guest
Thanks for awarding us the #1 seed! I'll send word to the boys... And I think a Southern Miss vs. Florida St. Super would be a lot of fun. There would be a lot of offense, in my opinion.
BTW, here are the resumes for 9 of the teams in contention for a National Seed (and I preface this by saying that at this point I would not consider Southern Miss to be a National Seed, but I do think our resume warrants being in the discussion-everything will change after this weekend anyway):
Georgia Tech: 37-16 (20-7) Home: 24-8 Away: 13-7 Neutral: 0-1
7-5 vs. 25
16-9 vs. 50
25-14 vs. 100

Florida St.: 38-13 (18-9) Home: 23-5 Away: 13-7 Neutral: 0-1
10-8 vs. 25
16-10 vs. 50
25-13 vs. 100

Rice: 36-17 (14-7) Home: 22-10 Away: 11-4 Neutral: 3-3
3-2 vs. 25
10-8 vs. 50
22-16 vs. 100

Texas A&M: 37-16 (18-6) Home: 27-7 Away: 9-7 Neutral: 1-2
3-4 vs. 25
13-7 vs. 50
27-15 vs. 100

UNC: 41-12 (17-10) Home: 28-3 Away: 11-9 Neutral: 2-0
7-5 vs. 25
13-8 vs. 50
31-12 vs. 100

Texas: 38-12 (17-7) Home: 29-6 Away: 9-6 Neutral: 0-0
4-2 vs. 25
11-6 vs. 50
27-11 vs. 100

Southern Miss: 37-13 (15-6) Home: 22-3 Away: 12-8 Neutral: 3-2
3-2 vs. 25
10-6 vs. 50
25-12 vs. 100

Oregon St.: 37-12 (16-5) Home: 19-5 Away: 14-7 Neutral: 4-0
6-2 vs. 25
13-5 vs. 50
22-8 vs. 100

ASU: 36-13 (14-7) Home: 24-5 Away: 9-7 Neutral: 3-1
5-4 vs. 25
14-7 vs. 50
24-8 vs. 100
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5/18/2011 11:50:47 AM

rec1347
rec1347
Posts: 48
Excuse me if this is off topic. Is there a site to find a team's record against Top 25, Top 50 and so on?
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5/18/2011 12:51:04 PM

EaglehasLanded
EaglehasLanded
Posts: 43
I'm sure ther are multiple, but I usually use www.warrennolan.com, but I also reference Boydsworld.com and the official NCAA rpi which is released every Tuesday. Although, I usually calculate the record vs. Top 25 my self by viewing each team's schedule and counting their wins and losses vs. rpi top 25 teams.
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5/18/2011 5:16:09 PM

NolesFanJosh
NolesFanJosh
Posts: 127
The neutral site record for Florida State is wrong. They beat Florida 2 times in 'neutral field' games. (Jacksonville and Orlando)
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5/18/2011 5:28:50 PM

fsugeo
fsugeo
Posts: 39
NolesFanJosh wrote:
The neutral site record for Florida State is wrong. They beat Florida 2 times in 'neutral field' games. (Jacksonville and Orlando)

They are also 12-9 against Top 25 RPI teams according to Warren Nolan.
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