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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/18

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5/17/2011 11:22:44 PM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7488
Here are the latest projections .... moved some teams out and in the field this week. Check it out.

Leave your questions here and I'll get to them ASAP in the morning.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5667

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/17/2011 11:51:53 PM

BeaverBeliever20
BeaverBeliever20
Posts: 129
Just wondering Kendall, why did you drop Oregon State from a #4 national seed to a #8 national seed after they won yet another Pac-10 series?
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5/17/2011 11:54:09 PM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7488
BeaverBeliever20 wrote:
Just wondering Kendall, why did you drop Oregon State from a #4 national seed to a #8 national seed after they won yet another Pac-10 series?


Only one reason at all: Beavers now have an RPI of 20. That's stretching it from a national seed standpoint, so they pretty much had to be the last national seed on the list.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/17/2011 11:59:31 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1065
BeaverBeliever20 wrote:
Just wondering Kendall, why did you drop Oregon State from a #4 national seed to a #8 national seed after they won yet another Pac-10 series?


BB20,

You know it's the RPI issues. It's a right coast favoritism and it will only get worse playing USC and Oregon. Heck, by the time we get done playing our conference games, we could sweep both series and still drop so far down we are not even a national seed, yet I read articles and blogs that we are one of the 5 best teams in the nation right now. Huh! Could prove it to look at things like RPI and SOS. What a crock.

Kendall,

How can a team win all (if/when we do) of their conference series in what is supposed to be a top 2 or 3 conference and not be a national seed? Can you adequately explain?
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5/18/2011 12:20:02 AM

BeaverBeliever20
BeaverBeliever20
Posts: 129
Florida Beaver wrote:
BeaverBeliever20 wrote:
Just wondering Kendall, why did you drop Oregon State from a #4 national seed to a #8 national seed after they won yet another Pac-10 series?


BB20,

You know it's the RPI issues. It's a right coast favoritism and it will only get worse playing USC and Oregon. Heck, by the time we get done playing our conference games, we could sweep both series and still drop so far down we are not even a national seed, yet I read articles and blogs that we are one of the 5 best teams in the nation right now. Huh! Could prove it to look at things like RPI and SOS. What a crock.

Kendall,

How can a team win all (if/when we do) of their conference series in what is supposed to be a top 2 or 3 conference and not be a national seed? Can you adequately explain?




Yeah, I figured that was the only reasoning. OSU is going to losing its national seed because they have to play Oregon and USC and with the way the ridiculous RPI is set up, their RPI will be killed.
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5/18/2011 12:27:28 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7488
Florida Beaver wrote:
BeaverBeliever20 wrote:
Just wondering Kendall, why did you drop Oregon State from a #4 national seed to a #8 national seed after they won yet another Pac-10 series?


BB20,

You know it's the RPI issues. It's a right coast favoritism and it will only get worse playing USC and Oregon. Heck, by the time we get done playing our conference games, we could sweep both series and still drop so far down we are not even a national seed, yet I read articles and blogs that we are one of the 5 best teams in the nation right now. Huh! Could prove it to look at things like RPI and SOS. What a crock.

Kendall,

How can a team win all (if/when we do) of their conference series in what is supposed to be a top 2 or 3 conference and not be a national seed? Can you adequately explain?


I have no reasonable explanation for you, sorry. Looking at Oregon State's schedule, I'm trying to find a weak spot. It played a pretty solid non-conference schedule, with the exception being a four-game series against Hartford, which has an RPI of 291. Perhaps that's dragging down the Beavers, but I can't imagine four games dragging down OSU's entire resume, which is very very salty.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/18/2011 12:53:19 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1065
One last question, then I'll let this go.
If OSU and ASU play in the same conference and play the exact same conference teams, and with the exception of maybe 1 or 2 non-conference series, how is it that ASU is #7 RPI and OSU is #20, especially when OSU swept ASU? If you can explain that to me in a way that can make sense, I'll eat my baseball glove, laces and all.
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5/18/2011 1:04:08 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7488
Florida Beaver wrote:
One last question, then I'll let this go.
If OSU and ASU play in the same conference and play the exact same conference teams, and with the exception of maybe 1 or 2 non-conference series, how is it that ASU is #7 RPI and OSU is #20, especially when OSU swept ASU? If you can explain that to me in a way that can make sense, I'll eat my baseball glove, laces and all.


Explanation could be the fact ASU has a SOS of 17 and OSU has an SOS in the 70s. Again, I think that Hartford series is an absolute SOS killer for the Beavers right now.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/18/2011 2:59:49 AM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 987
It's really stupid that Oregon State is penalized for sweeping a 4 game series...nothing like punishing teams for winning...the rest of OSU's schedule is decent too. If they win the PAC-10 and finish the year having won every single weekend (3+ games) series than it's a crying shame if they get shafted from a national seed.
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5/18/2011 4:57:30 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 103
OpihiMan wrote:
It's really stupid that Oregon State is penalized for sweeping a 4 game series...nothing like punishing teams for winning...the rest of OSU's schedule is decent too. If they win the PAC-10 and finish the year having won every single weekend (3+ games) series than it's a crying shame if they get shafted from a national seed.


Here's the thing though: everyone who plays a dog like Hartford (4-41 !!!) takes a hit in the RPI. It's not just a secret conspiracy against the west coast.

But you guys are focusing on Hartford and ignoring the other scrimmages on your schedule. Three games against Portland and two against Seattle aren't helping you either. You have played nine games against teams in the 200+ range. Look at Florida: none. Arizona State: none. Rice: none. Nine games is a lot, and it isn't beneficial to lose one of those, either.

If Oregon State is a national seed, they will prove it in the post-season. But you can't play a really bad non-conference schedule and expect to have the same rating as someone else with the same record who played a tougher schedule.
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5/18/2011 7:17:35 AM

ucfalum08
ucfalum08
Posts: 42
Assuming Stetson doesn't host where will UCF, Miami and Stetson end up?
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5/18/2011 7:32:11 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 103
ucfalum08 wrote:
Assuming Stetson doesn't host where will UCF, Miami and Stetson end up?


That's the question of the day. There could be nine Florida teams in the post-season, so if Stetson doesn't host, people are being shipped out. One site has Miami going to Oregon State. Maybe UCF and Stetson are the 2-seeds in Tally and Gainesville.
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5/18/2011 8:00:52 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2076
Kendall wrote:
BeaverBeliever20 wrote:
Just wondering Kendall, why did you drop Oregon State from a #4 national seed to a #8 national seed after they won yet another Pac-10 series?


Only one reason at all: Beavers now have an RPI of 20. That's stretching it from a national seed standpoint, so they pretty much had to be the last national seed on the list.

Even if the Beavers kill USC and Oregon, the way the RPI works, we'll probably drop even lower than 20. What happens with national seeding then? How many people on the selection committee realize that the Rat's Patootie Index is so stupid and are willing to disregard it?
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5/18/2011 8:16:19 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 103
Dodger Matt wrote:
Kendall wrote:
BeaverBeliever20 wrote:
Just wondering Kendall, why did you drop Oregon State from a #4 national seed to a #8 national seed after they won yet another Pac-10 series?


Only one reason at all: Beavers now have an RPI of 20. That's stretching it from a national seed standpoint, so they pretty much had to be the last national seed on the list.

Even if the Beavers kill USC and Oregon, the way the RPI works, we'll probably drop even lower than 20. What happens with national seeding then? How many people on the selection committee realize that the Rat's Patootie Index is so stupid and are willing to disregard it?


You have to start by understanding that teams will drop after some wins in ANY rating system. If Virginia plays and defeats Portland, Virginia's ISR will be reduced. If anyone in the top 100 plays and defeats Hartford, that team's ISR will fall. I can't understand why you people still think that concept is unique to the RPI.
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5/18/2011 8:53:44 AM

Puppy Dogs and Ice Cream
Puppy Dogs and Ice Cream
Posts: 16
I take it that this is your projected and not "if the season ended today" since you show Arizona State as hosting. I haven't seen anything yet, but did they make a ruling on their appeal from a couple days ago?

If they don't get the ban lifted, who takes that host spot?
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5/18/2011 9:04:17 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 103
Puppy Dogs and Ice Cream wrote:
I take it that this is your projected and not "if the season ended today" since you show Arizona State as hosting. I haven't seen anything yet, but did they make a ruling on their appeal from a couple days ago?

If they don't get the ban lifted, who takes that host spot?


It's not that the ban will be lifted, it's that the ruling on the appeal could take months. So they might still get the ban, but it wouldn't be until 2012 unless the committee miraculously makes a ruling very soon.
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5/18/2011 9:15:35 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7488
ucfalum08 wrote:
Assuming Stetson doesn't host where will UCF, Miami and Stetson end up?


UCF,
That's a great question and one of the chief reasons I still have Stetson as an NCAA Regional host. Why would the NCAA, as of right now, ship a bunch of Florida teams away and cost them money when they can give a team that is as deserving as the other contenders for a regional host a host right there in the State of Florida? Add on top of that the fact Stetson is a mid-major and I think it has a very good shot.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/18/2011 9:15:57 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7488
Puppy Dogs and Ice Cream wrote:
I take it that this is your projected and not "if the season ended today" since you show Arizona State as hosting. I haven't seen anything yet, but did they make a ruling on their appeal from a couple days ago?

If they don't get the ban lifted, who takes that host spot?


They're in the postseason until further notice.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/18/2011 9:28:55 AM

fsugeo
fsugeo
Posts: 39
I am not sure if FSU is one of the top 8 teams in the country. Heck, after Sean Gilmartin we don't even have a #2 starter, but the resume is national seed worthy at this time.

FSU is 12-9 against the RPI top 25, 16-10 against Top 50, and 25-13 against the top 100 and has a SOS of 4. The #4 national seed is 3-3 against the top 25, 11-6 against the top 50 and 27-10 against the top 100. They have a SOS of 45.

I believe the 12 top 25 wins is second only to UVA.

UNC is in 5th place in the ACC and has lost FOUR series this year. I am impressed with their 32 Top 100 wins, but don't think they are a top 8 seed today.

So, I guess my question is how is Texas the #4 national seed? I guess I can see them as a national seed because they lead the Big 12, but nothing they have done suggests they should be #4 and aside from leading their conference, they have nothing over FSU.

I know the ACC isn't getting four national seeds (I don't even think they get three), but I see no way the ACC gets three with FSU being behind UNC and GT.
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5/18/2011 9:51:08 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7488
fsugeo wrote:
I am not sure if FSU is one of the top 8 teams in the country. Heck, after Sean Gilmartin we don't even have a #2 starter, but the resume is national seed worthy at this time.

FSU is 12-9 against the RPI top 25, 16-10 against Top 50, and 25-13 against the top 100 and has a SOS of 4. The #4 national seed is 3-3 against the top 25, 11-6 against the top 50 and 27-10 against the top 100. They have a SOS of 45.

I believe the 12 top 25 wins is second only to UVA.

UNC is in 5th place in the ACC and has lost FOUR series this year. I am impressed with their 32 Top 100 wins, but don't think they are a top 8 seed today.

So, I guess my question is how is Texas the #4 national seed? I guess I can see them as a national seed because they lead the Big 12, but nothing they have done suggests they should be #4 and aside from leading their conference, they have nothing over FSU.

I know the ACC isn't getting four national seeds (I don't even think they get three), but I see no way the ACC gets three with FSU being behind UNC and GT.


George, a bunch of great comments as usual.

I'm with you that Florida State is national seed material, but as you mentioned, the ACC isn't going to get four seeds. So, with that, the NCAA would have to be telling North Carolina that it's road series win over FSU doesn't much. Comparing the two teams:

North Carolina: 8-5 vs. RPI Top 25, 12-8 vs. RPI Top 50, 32-12 vs. RPI Top 100
Florida State: 10-8 vs. RPI Top 25, 16-10 vs. RPI Top 50, 25-13 vs. RPI Top 100

Teams are split vs. Top 25. UNC has better %, FSU has more wins, FSU easily has advantage vs. RPI T50 and UNC has advantage vs. RPI T100. UNC also has head-to-head.

It's a close call ..... I think there's a very solid chance FSU is a national seed on Selection Mond.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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