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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/18

Want to make your opinion heard or just chat about college baseball? This is your place.
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5/18/2011 9:59:12 AM

USCbaseballguy
USCbaseballguy
Posts: 6
Kendall how solid is south carolina for a national seed? What do they have to do this weekend and in hoover to be sure of a national seed.
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5/18/2011 10:14:22 AM

Puppy Dogs and Ice Cream
Puppy Dogs and Ice Cream
Posts: 16
MiamiBaseball wrote:
Puppy Dogs and Ice Cream wrote:
I take it that this is your projected and not "if the season ended today" since you show Arizona State as hosting. I haven't seen anything yet, but did they make a ruling on their appeal from a couple days ago?

If they don't get the ban lifted, who takes that host spot?


It's not that the ban will be lifted, it's that the ruling on the appeal could take months. So they might still get the ban, but it wouldn't be until 2012 unless the committee miraculously makes a ruling very soon.


Ah, that makes sense. Thanks for the info
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5/18/2011 10:35:05 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2102
MiamiBaseball wrote:
You have to start by understanding that teams will drop after some wins in ANY rating system. If Virginia plays and defeats Portland, Virginia's ISR will be reduced. If anyone in the top 100 plays and defeats Hartford, that team's ISR will fall. I can't understand why you people still think that concept is unique to the RPI.

Bottom Story of the Day: Condescension from a Miami fan.
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5/18/2011 10:37:21 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2127
What are the chances that OSU will not Host a regional? What would it take..
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5/18/2011 10:39:53 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7495
USCbaseballguy wrote:
Kendall how solid is south carolina for a national seed? What do they have to do this weekend and in hoover to be sure of a national seed.


As long as South Carolina doesn't fall apart this weekend and then go 0-2 in Hoover, I think it's fine. The Gamecocks have put together a very solid resume this season.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/18/2011 11:23:28 AM

fsugeo
fsugeo
Posts: 39
Kendall wrote:
fsugeo wrote:
I am not sure if FSU is one of the top 8 teams in the country. Heck, after Sean Gilmartin we don't even have a #2 starter, but the resume is national seed worthy at this time.

FSU is 12-9 against the RPI top 25, 16-10 against Top 50, and 25-13 against the top 100 and has a SOS of 4. The #4 national seed is 3-3 against the top 25, 11-6 against the top 50 and 27-10 against the top 100. They have a SOS of 45.

I believe the 12 top 25 wins is second only to UVA.

UNC is in 5th place in the ACC and has lost FOUR series this year. I am impressed with their 32 Top 100 wins, but don't think they are a top 8 seed today.

So, I guess my question is how is Texas the #4 national seed? I guess I can see them as a national seed because they lead the Big 12, but nothing they have done suggests they should be #4 and aside from leading their conference, they have nothing over FSU.

I know the ACC isn't getting four national seeds (I don't even think they get three), but I see no way the ACC gets three with FSU being behind UNC and GT.


George, a bunch of great comments as usual.

I'm with you that Florida State is national seed material, but as you mentioned, the ACC isn't going to get four seeds. So, with that, the NCAA would have to be telling North Carolina that it's road series win over FSU doesn't much. Comparing the two teams:

North Carolina: 8-5 vs. RPI Top 25, 12-8 vs. RPI Top 50, 32-12 vs. RPI Top 100
Florida State: 10-8 vs. RPI Top 25, 16-10 vs. RPI Top 50, 25-13 vs. RPI Top 100

Teams are split vs. Top 25. UNC has better %, FSU has more wins, FSU easily has advantage vs. RPI T50 and UNC has advantage vs. RPI T100. UNC also has head-to-head.

It's a close call ..... I think there's a very solid chance FSU is a national seed on Selection Mond.


I have FSU as 12-9 against the Top 25 (maybe someone snuck in last night after you did your research).

UNC may have a series win over FSU, but they have lost FOUR ACC series this year. FSU is ahead of UNC in the league standings too.

GT is another one where FSU has the better resume, GT just has a two game lead in the league standings (didn't play each other.) FSU leads in Top 25 RPI, Overall RPI, and SOS. FSU, like UNC has ZERO losses outside the Top 100 too.

Frankly, all three have a better resume than Texas.
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5/18/2011 11:32:39 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7495
Riverduck wrote:
What are the chances that OSU will not Host a regional? What would it take..


Oregon State would have to absolutely tank the final two weekends, which won't happen IMO.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/18/2011 11:42:47 AM

lsuchamps11
lsuchamps11
Posts: 11
Kendall, no love for LSU but alot of love for Tulane whom LSU beat twice CONVINCINGLY!!! Please explain the logic my friend. thanks
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5/18/2011 1:36:48 PM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 116
Dodger Matt wrote:
MiamiBaseball wrote:
You have to start by understanding that teams will drop after some wins in ANY rating system. If Virginia plays and defeats Portland, Virginia's ISR will be reduced. If anyone in the top 100 plays and defeats Hartford, that team's ISR will fall. I can't understand why you people still think that concept is unique to the RPI.

Bottom Story of the Day: Condescension from a Miami fan.


You can make it about me if you want, but please tell me that you learned something about rating systems in the process.
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5/18/2011 1:49:13 PM

TannerMan
TannerMan
Posts: 2
MiamiBaseball wrote:
Dodger Matt wrote:
MiamiBaseball wrote:
You have to start by understanding that teams will drop after some wins in ANY rating system. If Virginia plays and defeats Portland, Virginia's ISR will be reduced. If anyone in the top 100 plays and defeats Hartford, that team's ISR will fall. I can't understand why you people still think that concept is unique to the RPI.

Bottom Story of the Day: Condescension from a Miami fan.


You can make it about me if you want, but please tell me that you learned something about rating systems in the process.



The baseball committee will follow Bylaw 31.3.3 in selecting at-large participants. In addition, the committee also uses the Rating Percentage Index (RPI), a computer program that provides the committee with (1) the institution’s Division I winning percentage, (2) opponents’ success and (3) opponents’ strength of schedule. The RPI is an additional tool used in the evaluation of at-large teams. Please note that the adjusted RPI takes into account a bonus/penalty structure. Bonus and penalty values will only be used for nonconference games. For more specific questions, please contact J.D. Hamilton at 317/917-6124.
Regular-season conference standings and/or conference postseason competition shall be considered by the committee when selecting at-large teams. The committee may consider comparing data of individual teams, including, but notlimited to, overall record, Division I record, overall RPI rank, nonconference record and RPI rank, conference regular-season record and conference tournament results, road record and RPI, last 15 games’ record, its record against teams ranked 1-25, 26-50, 51-100, 101-150 and below 150 in the RPI, head-to-head record, common opponents’ record and input from regional advisory committees.

That is from the 2009 manual on selections.

I do not think the RPI is the best way to "rank" or select teams but it is fairly clear that the NCAA is going to use that formula.

Hate the system if you wish but the coaches are as much to blame for their OOC scheduling.
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5/18/2011 2:35:34 PM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7495
lsuchamps11 wrote:
Kendall, no love for LSU but alot of love for Tulane whom LSU beat twice CONVINCINGLY!!! Please explain the logic my friend. thanks


Great question. Tulane has a much better conference record in a conference that is rated near the top of the Conference RPI and not "that" far behind the SEC. The big thing hurting LSU no matter who its compared against is its abysmal conference record. The Tigers can take care of that problem in a way this weekend, but we'll see if they can do it. I think LSU squeaks in with a series win this weekend. If not, they won't and shouldn't be in the postseason no matter what.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/18/2011 3:47:33 PM

Tommy Salami
Tommy Salami
Posts: 35
It looks like Oregon States situation is similar to South Carolina last year. Despite finishing the regular season with a very good 21-9 mark in the SEC and having all the impressive series wins they had they did not get a national seed because of their RPI. I believe it was around 17 at the end of the regular season due to the wins they had against low ranked competition. Oregon State is facing the same problem this year but hey look how South Carolina ended up (;
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5/18/2011 5:31:44 PM

NolesFanJosh
NolesFanJosh
Posts: 127
Like Kendall said, Oregon State will MORE THAN LIKELY get a National Seed...it just may not be the #3, #4 or so...the thing is, you get a National Seed, you win, YOU STAY HOME. All the # symbol next to the seed dictates is what side of bracket you're on for CWS. If all the National Seeds 'hold serve' (which we all KNOW WON'T happen) then Oregon State gets to knock the others off. I'd be ticked if I was an OSU fan and they DIDN'T get a National Seed...in fact, if Oregon State doesn't slip up and drop either of their next 2 series', and STILL don't get a National Seed, I'll jump off of Sky Tower here in Auckland in an Oregon State jersey and post that bad boy on Youtube. And yes, there is a backstory behind the whole jumping off SkyTower bit...but that's for another day.

Bottom Line: Oregon State, DESPITE the RPI in 20's, which I agree with an earlier poster: DON'T play Hartford, etc., DESPITE that, they'll get a Top 8. And really that's all that matter end of day, doesn't matter which number it is.
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5/18/2011 5:54:25 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2102
MiamiBaseball wrote:
Dodger Matt wrote:
MiamiBaseball wrote:
You have to start by understanding that teams will drop after some wins in ANY rating system. If Virginia plays and defeats Portland, Virginia's ISR will be reduced. If anyone in the top 100 plays and defeats Hartford, that team's ISR will fall. I can't understand why you people still think that concept is unique to the RPI.

Bottom Story of the Day: Condescension from a Miami fan.


You can make it about me if you want, but please tell me that you learned something about rating systems in the process.

Not really. I've been around long enough to know how they both work, so thanks for the primer, but it was nothing new. The ISR is still more accurate because it doesn't stop at opponents' opponents' winning percentages. Every once in a while, the disparities between the two systems become very pronounced with a few teams. This year it happens to be my team, and I rant.
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5/18/2011 6:34:44 PM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 116
Dodger Matt wrote:
Not really. I've been around long enough to know how they both work, so thanks for the primer, but it was nothing new. The ISR is still more accurate because it doesn't stop at opponents' opponents' winning percentages. Every once in a while, the disparities between the two systems become very pronounced with a few teams. This year it happens to be my team, and I rant.


I know precisely how the ISR is calculated, and I would like to hear your explanation of the bolded part.
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5/18/2011 8:28:24 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2102
No thanks, Teach-- I mean Coach. Done with homework.
Didn't think there could be that many Miami fans like you.

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5/19/2011 5:39:29 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 116
Dodger Matt wrote:
No thanks, Teach-- I mean Coach. Done with homework.
Didn't think there could be that many Miami fans like you.




Yeah, that's what I figured. Not understanding this stuff is nothing to be embarrassed about. But making this personal speaks volumes about you.
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