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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » CBT ($): In-depth projections breakdown (5/18)

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5/18/2011 1:30:55 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7488
We go very in-depth in our premium piece stemming from the projections, including teams such as LSU, Ole Miss, Stetson, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Fresno State, Oregon State, Florida State, Texas A&M, Rice and many more.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Forum/messages.aspx?TopicID=4479&MessageID=7495#post7495

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Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
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Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/18/2011 4:55:12 AM

weg313
weg313
Posts: 134
K, in your analysis you compared the resumes of Stetson and Fresno St., arguing that Stetson had the bulldogs beat. How? I'll take the 2-0 vs. Top 25 and 5-0 vs. Top 50 anyday. Also, the Committee will be seeking a fourth Western regional for geographic balance; whereas there is an abundance of quality, host-worthy southeastern teams. I do think this may be the year the Committee gives increased weight to conference performance and conference titles in determining national seeds and regional hosts, but Stetson's only strong case at the moment is simply that they're a mid-major. Sorry,but that's not enough, IMO.

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In Wayne Graham we trust.
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5/18/2011 9:21:04 AM

Kendall
Kendall
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Posts: 7488
weg313 wrote:
K, in your analysis you compared the resumes of Stetson and Fresno St., arguing that Stetson had the bulldogs beat. How? I'll take the 2-0 vs. Top 25 and 5-0 vs. Top 50 anyday. Also, the Committee will be seeking a fourth Western regional for geographic balance; whereas there is an abundance of quality, host-worthy southeastern teams. I do think this may be the year the Committee gives increased weight to conference performance and conference titles in determining national seeds and regional hosts, but Stetson's only strong case at the moment is simply that they're a mid-major. Sorry,but that's not enough, IMO.


WG,
Great questions as usual. Stetson has a pretty solid resume right now, and the fact it is a mid-major (a true one) helps its case, IMO. But that's not the kicker. Right now, you have a ton of Florida teams expected to be in the field. So, the NCAA has a decision to make, do you send all of those Florida schools packing, or do you just give a third host to a worthy (maybe not great resume) mid-major host? I think they give the regional to the mid-major host. But let's face the facts, Stetson's margin for error is exactly nil. It needs to sweep Belmont this weekend. And as for the West Coast, I think the fact the WC is down this year will hurt Fresno State. Fresno's record of only 11-5 against Top 100 RPI is a strike against it, too. I can see Fresno (or OU/ARK) getting one right now, but Stetson, as of today, makes the most sense IMO.

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Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/18/2011 8:02:08 PM

elonbaseball
elonbaseball
Posts: 6
Stetson is not an interesting team right now. Their success this season is beased to a learge extent on a few late inning wins (after falling behind) over some very average teams and a weak weekend schedule. They have lost most of their recent competetitive games lately. You cant reward a team for winning a couple of early games against midweek teams and playing in an easy league. The strength of schedule Stetson plays is embearrasing for a regional host team. Reward the teams that face a devil of a schedule every weekend and have to struggle to have pitching ready for the midweek games. Mid-major or not, the soft weekend schedules in the Atlantic Sun make Stetson a poor choice.
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5/18/2011 10:10:09 PM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7488
elonbaseball wrote:
Stetson is not an interesting team right now. Their success this season is beased to a learge extent on a few late inning wins (after falling behind) over some very average teams and a weak weekend schedule. They have lost most of their recent competetitive games lately. You cant reward a team for winning a couple of early games against midweek teams and playing in an easy league. The strength of schedule Stetson plays is embearrasing for a regional host team. Reward the teams that face a devil of a schedule every weekend and have to struggle to have pitching ready for the midweek games. Mid-major or not, the soft weekend schedules in the Atlantic Sun make Stetson a poor choice.


Hope you don't think Fresno State is more worthy. Stetson SOS: 73, Fresno State SOS: 88

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Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/18/2011 10:46:23 PM

rec1347
rec1347
Posts: 48
Kendall wrote:
elonbaseball wrote:
Stetson is not an interesting team right now. Their success this season is beased to a learge extent on a few late inning wins (after falling behind) over some very average teams and a weak weekend schedule. They have lost most of their recent competetitive games lately. You cant reward a team for winning a couple of early games against midweek teams and playing in an easy league. The strength of schedule Stetson plays is embearrasing for a regional host team. Reward the teams that face a devil of a schedule every weekend and have to struggle to have pitching ready for the midweek games. Mid-major or not, the soft weekend schedules in the Atlantic Sun make Stetson a poor choice.


Hope you don't think Fresno State is more worthy. Stetson SOS: 73, Fresno State SOS: 88


Maybe not more worthy, but just as worthy. What criteria is used for SOS? Boyd's World has Fresno State at 62 and Stetson at 132. Fresno State's ISR is 10, while Stetson sits at 33. Fresno State has an RPI of 19 and Stetson is at 22. So yes I would actually say at this point that Fresno State is just as worthy, certainly not less worthy.
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