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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » PG 64: Latest NCAA Projections (HAVE Q'S?) -- 5/24

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5/24/2011 1:02:20 AM

Kendall
Kendall
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Here's our latest postseason projections ... leave your question and I'll get to it ASAP .... Be aware that I'll be on a flight to Birmingham in the morning for the SEC tournament around 11 a.m.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5700

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/24/2011 2:04:59 AM

NolesFanJosh
NolesFanJosh
Posts: 127
I gotta say, it's a pretty damn soft bubble when Mercer is getting the final at-large spot. That being said, couple of questions:
1) Who can benefit the most in the Conference Tournaments from a National Seed P.O.V.? Same for those still trying to snag hosting spots.

2) Wouldn't the committee look into sending Fullerton to Tempe and Tallahassee to Austin instead of the ASU/FSU and Tex/CSF matchups you have listed?

3) I see you have Hawaii in but as the auto-bid, if they lose in WAC Tournament, do you see them getting in as at-large?

Thanks Kendall.
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5/24/2011 5:10:32 AM

ucfalum08
ucfalum08
Posts: 42
How good of a chance is there that UCF goes to Tallahassee? I've heard that likely isn't a scenario b/c of the late season series b/n the two teams.
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5/24/2011 7:36:15 AM

Kendall
Kendall
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Posts: 7540
NolesFanJosh wrote:
I gotta say, it's a pretty damn soft bubble when Mercer is getting the final at-large spot. That being said, couple of questions:
1) Who can benefit the most in the Conference Tournaments from a National Seed P.O.V.? Same for those still trying to snag hosting spots.



2) Wouldn't the committee look into sending Fullerton to Tempe and Tallahassee to Austin instead of the ASU/FSU and Tex/CSF matchups you have listed?

The committee has shown in the past it's willing to matchup Tempe with some southern hosts, so it's not far-fetched at all.

3) I see you have Hawaii in but as the auto-bid, if they lose in WAC Tournament, do you see them getting in as at-large?



Thanks Kendall.


1) Who can benefit the most in the Conference Tournaments from a National Seed P.O.V.? Same for those still trying to snag hosting spots.

National seed benefits: Rice, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Texas A&M
Regional benefits: Oklahoma, Clemson, Miami ..... and maybe Stetson if it just completely dominated its conference tournament.



2) Wouldn't the committee look into sending Fullerton to Tempe and Tallahassee to Austin instead of the ASU/FSU and Tex/CSF matchups you have listed?

The committee has shown in the past it's willing to matchup Tempe with some southern hosts, so it's not far-fetched at all.


3) I see you have Hawaii in but as the auto-bid, if they lose in WAC Tournament, do you see them getting in as at-large?

With an RPI of 79 right now, I'm inclined to think the Rainbows don't get in unless they get to the title game of the tournament and fall just short, then it's a tossup at that point, IMO.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/24/2011 7:39:08 AM

Kendall
Kendall
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Posts: 7540
ucfalum08 wrote:
How good of a chance is there that UCF goes to Tallahassee? I've heard that likely isn't a scenario b/c of the late season series b/n the two teams.


That could deter the NCAA from sending them to Tallahassee, but don't think it really matters that much at this point. It's all about finding ways to get the Florida teams in regionals around there without having to ship them out too far.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/24/2011 9:05:01 AM

FrogsMcGee
FrogsMcGee
Posts: 2
Kendall-

I'm interested to hear why you send TCU to UNC instead of pairing the 4 Texas hosts? Does the committee make a concerted effort to avoid repeating the same matchups year after year (ie TCU-Texas), so you think they will avoid that pairing at all costs?

Also, I'm assuming that Rice's national seed is still very much reliant on their performing very well (likely winning) the CUSA tournament. Assuming they don't win that tournament, and thus don't get a national seed, how do you see the Texas team super pairings shaking out?
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5/24/2011 10:03:13 AM

Puppy Dogs and Ice Cream
Puppy Dogs and Ice Cream
Posts: 16
Kendall,

I know Baylor will more then likely be at the Rice or TCU regional but if they do get shipped out somewhere where would you see them going?

Also, with a lot on the line for many teams in the Big 12 tourney (nat. seeds, hosting, at-large bids), which team do you think has the most to gain/lose by their performance?
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5/24/2011 11:01:51 AM

Daweez04
Daweez04
Posts: 44
What RPI do you use? Psuedo or WarrenNolan? and Why?
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5/24/2011 11:49:33 AM

FullertonBaseballFan
FullertonBaseballFan
Posts: 146
Daweez, he uses the pseudo RPI that Boyd's World uses. Boyd's RPI's include the bonuses for non-conf road wins at top 25/50/75 RPI opponents that the NCAA's RPI does. Warren Nolan only uses the basic RPI formula and doesn't include the bonuses.
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5/24/2011 12:24:47 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1458
Kendall, it's interesting that you have ASU as the number 8 seed ahead of Oregon State. The Beavers swept ASU, are currently ahead of ASU in your own poll: 8 to 13, and are close to being crowned the Pac 10 champs.
Is your decision soley based on RPI?
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5/24/2011 2:26:03 PM

Gina
Gina
Posts: 1
Mercer over ETSU? ETSU has a 31 RPI to Mercer's 58.
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5/24/2011 3:37:55 PM

ConnorOSU1
ConnorOSU1
Posts: 6
Kendall, In yesterday's chat you said that if the Beavers win this weekend's series then they will be a National Seed. Is that still true?
edited by ConnorOSU1 on 5/24/2011
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5/24/2011 4:15:02 PM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7540
FrogsMcGee wrote:
Kendall-

I'm interested to hear why you send TCU to UNC instead of pairing the 4 Texas hosts? Does the committee make a concerted effort to avoid repeating the same matchups year after year (ie TCU-Texas), so you think they will avoid that pairing at all costs?

Also, I'm assuming that Rice's national seed is still very much reliant on their performing very well (likely winning) the CUSA tournament. Assuming they don't win that tournament, and thus don't get a national seed, how do you see the Texas team super pairings shaking out?


TCU and Texas have been matched up in super regional play the past two years, and I can't imagine the NCAA doing that same thing for a third-straight year. Therefore, you have to send those teams somewhere, and that's what I did, within reason of course.

As for Rice, if the Owls win 3 or 4 games in the Conference USA tournament, I think they're a national seed. The Owls have a pretty solid resume, so I don't think it's a situation where they have to win the conference tournament.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/24/2011 4:21:43 PM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7540
Puppy Dogs and Ice Cream wrote:
Kendall,

I know Baylor will more then likely be at the Rice or TCU regional but if they do get shipped out somewhere where would you see them going?

Also, with a lot on the line for many teams in the Big 12 tourney (nat. seeds, hosting, at-large bids), which team do you think has the most to gain/lose by their performance?


If Baylor gets shipped out, Southern Miss or Arkansas look like pretty solid destinations. Arizona State could be another destination for the Bears. Don't see them going too far away with a pretty solid resume.

As for teams with a lot to gain/lose, I think it focuses on Texas A&M, Kansas State and Texas Tech. A&M can get right back in the strong national seed consideration with a great week in Oklahoma City, while Kansas State and Texas Tech must have an impressive week to have any chance of making the NCAA tournament.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/24/2011 4:29:45 PM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7540
Daweez04 wrote:
What RPI do you use? Psuedo or WarrenNolan? and Why?


Boyds World and because it's by far the most accurate. There's not a "huge" difference between the two, though.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/24/2011 4:30:47 PM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7540
BeaverBob wrote:
Kendall, it's interesting that you have ASU as the number 8 seed ahead of Oregon State. The Beavers swept ASU, are currently ahead of ASU in your own poll: 8 to 13, and are close to being crowned the Pac 10 champs.
Is your decision soley based on RPI?


Has nothing to do with me thinking Arizona State is a better team. I think Oregon State clearly is better. However, the NCAA is not going to give a team with an RPI of 27 a national seed, as stupid as it sounds. Not going to happen. Oregon State needs to take care of Oregon this weekend and hope the rest of it takes care of itself.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/24/2011 4:33:04 PM

Kendall
Kendall
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Posts: 7540
Gina wrote:
Mercer over ETSU? ETSU has a 31 RPI to Mercer's 58.


RPI isn't everything.

Let's compare resumes.

Head-to-head series: Mercer

ETSU: 2-3 vs. RPI Top 25, 5-6 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-14 vs. RPI Top 100
Mercer: 3-4 vs. RPI Top 25, 5-8 vs. RPI Top 50, 12-11 vs. RPI Top 100

I'll give the Bears a solid advantage as of right now.
edited by Kendall on 5/24/2011

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/24/2011 4:34:41 PM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7540
ConnorOSU1 wrote:
Kendall, In yesterday's chat you said that if the Beavers win this weekend's series then they will be a National Seed. Is that still true?
edited by ConnorOSU1 on 5/24/2011


I think if the Beavers take care of Oregon this weekend and get a little help elsewhere, they can climb back into the Top 20 in the RPI ..... it's going to be close though. If they can get into the Top 25, I think they get a national seed, probably the No. 8 seed.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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5/24/2011 6:47:06 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Stats below, sorted by record versus top 100 RPI, are grabbed from Nolan’s Nitty Gritty Report, and since half the work was already done, I stuck with his Rat’s Patooties. Using Kendall’s “versus top 25, versus top 50, versus top 100” breakdown, the Beavers currently have the seventh-best record against top 100 RPI teams. And the BEST versus top 25 and top 50.

RPI Team Div I OOC SOS 1 – 25..... 1 – 50..... 1 – 100....
4 Vanderbilt 44-9 22-1 32 11-7 0.611 19-8 0.704 23-8 0.742
2 Virginia 45-9 23-1 26 9-6 0.600 15-8 0.652 21-8 0.724
1 North Carolina 44-12 24-2 3 11-5 0.688 15-8 0.652 31-12 0.721
9 Arizona State 38-14 22-6 27 3-4 0.429 14-7 0.667 25-10 0.714
11 Texas 40-13 21-5 45 4-2 0.667 16-7 0.696 27-11 0.711
6 South Carolina 44-12 22-4 31 12-6 0.667 18-9 0.667 24-10 0.706
21 Oregon State 38-14 21-7 75 6-0 1.000 13-5 0.722 23-11 0.676
3 Florida 41-15 19-7 2 15-12 0.556 22-13 0.629 29-14 0.674
14 CS Fullerton 37-14 20-10 44 3-7 0.300 6-8 0.429 18-9 0.667
15 Southern Miss 38-15 22-7 48 4-4 0.500 11-8 0.579 26-14 0.650
19 Stetson 40-16 17-9 59 4-3 0.571 8-6 0.571 16-9 0.640
5 Florida State 39-15 20-4 4 12-11 0.522 17-12 0.586 24-14 0.632
13 Arkansas 36-18 21-3 21 10-8 0.556 15-13 0.536 22-13 0.629
12 Rice 38-18 22-10 15 5-3 0.625 12-9 0.571 28-17 0.622
10 Texas A&M 38-18 19-10 10 4-6 0.400 16-10 0.615 28-17 0.622
7 Georgia Tech 39-17 17-9 7 9-6 0.600 12-7 0.632 24-15 0.615
8 Clemson 39-17 22-4 8 7-10 0.412 12-12 0.500 20-14 0.588
17 Oklahoma 38-15 24-4 55 3-6 0.333 12-12 0.500 18-14 0.563
16 Miami 33-20 14-10 14 5-11 0.313 9-13 0.409 17-15 0.531
18 UCF 36-20 24-8 28 6-7 0.462 10-11 0.476 19-17 0.528
20 LSU 36-20 23-3 30 6-12 0.333 12-17 0.414 18-18 0.500

As for getting some help this weekend, I don’t see how we get any of that, the way the Rat’s Patootie is skewed. So I’m resigned to just being a #1 seed and (hopefully) traveling to a super.

Oregon State: #9 ISR, #7 Massey, #1 record versus top 25 and top 50 RPI, and soon-to-be Pac-10 champs, but still not worthy of a national seed. So, as stupid as it sounds, that sounds about right to me.

To get the "coded" table to fit correctly, this post was repeatedly...

edited by Dodger Matt on 5/24/2011
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5/24/2011 8:56:35 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1458
Kendall wrote:
BeaverBob wrote:
Kendall, it's interesting that you have ASU as the number 8 seed ahead of Oregon State. The Beavers swept ASU, are currently ahead of ASU in your own poll: 8 to 13, and are close to being crowned the Pac 10 champs.
Is your decision soley based on RPI?


Has nothing to do with me thinking Arizona State is a better team. I think Oregon State clearly is better. However, the NCAA is not going to give a team with an RPI of 27 a national seed, as stupid as it sounds. Not going to happen. Oregon State needs to take care of Oregon this weekend and hope the rest of it takes care of itself.


Kendall, I love your honest explanation. Can I assume that your Field of 64 are not what you think "should be", but what you think "will be?"
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