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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

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5/29/2011 1:13:31 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
LONG POST. EDITED. SEE BOTTOM OF THIS POST FOR REGIONAL INFO AND PICKS.


I want to get everyone thinking about this format before we actually have teams to plug into the regionals. So here's how the postseason predictions will work. (I'll edit this post when we know who's playing where and
then people can vote.)

Postseason predictions are a little different from weekly series picks. Because the teams play a double-elimination format, there are more distinct possibilities than the standard 0-3, 1-2, 2-1, and 3-0. We know that every regional will have a 0-2 team, and a 1-2 team. But the other two could be 2-2, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, or 4-1. Too many to try to predict and not worth the distinction. So I've cut the choices down to the following:
  • 3-0: The team sweeps and advances.
  • 3+: The team finishes 4-1 or 3-1 (advances), or 3-2 and is eliminated.
  • 2-2: The team is out.
  • 1-2: The team is out.
  • 0-2: The team is out.
The 3+ team will be the rarest, and it doesn't mean the team will advance. This team could lose one of its first two games and have to play through the loser's bracket, taking at least one from the 2-0 winner's bracket team before falling (3-2) or beating them a second time (4-1). This team could also be the winner's bracket team (2-0) that loses its first game to the loser's bracket team then wins the final game (3-1). Note that if the winner's bracket (2-0) team loses both of the final games to the loser's bracket team, it becomes a 2-2 team. Correctly picking a 3+ team is tricky, so we give it a slight edge in points over the standard 0-2, 1-2, and 2-2 picks.

To make it simpler, think in these terms:
  • 3-0: The team is so good it wins three straight.
  • 3+: The team is inconsistent or faces a tough team in its bracket, and it is strong enough to lose one and force a second game for the regional crown.
  • 2-2: The team is good but not great.
  • 1-2: The team will enjoy a weekend vacation at the school's expense.
  • 0-2: The team is Alcorn State, Princeton, Sacred Heart, Austin Peay, Manhattan, or Bethune-Cupcake.
Here's how the scoring goes. Your pick is along the top; actual result is on the side:
   You pick:  0-2  1-2  2-2  3-0   3+
0-2: 4 3 2 0 0
1-2: 3 4 3 1 1
2-2: 1 2 4 2 2
3-0: 0 1 2 6 4
3+: 1 2 3 3 5
So if you pick a team to go 1-2 (2nd column), and they go 1-2 (second row), you get 4 points. If the team goes 2-2 (third row), you get 2 points.

Ask questions about scoring here. I'll have the teams and regional info in sometime tomorrow.

REGIONAL INFO

Numbers preceding teams' names are ISRs. Vote for teams in the order they appear.

10 Texas A&M (paired with Florida State #5)
21 Arizona
89 Seton Hall
117 Wright State

6 Arizona State (paired with Texas #7)
22 Arkansas
78 Charlotte
135 New Mexico

13 Rice (#8) (paired with TCU)
41 Baylor
23 California
219 Alcorn State

14 Oregon State (paired with Vanderbilt #6)
25 Creighton
32 Georgia
157 UALR

8 CS Fullerton (paired with North Carolina #3)
16 Stanford
43 Kansas State
137 Illinois

18 UCLA (paired with Virginia #1)
11 Fresno State
17 UC Irvine
49 San Francisco

A sample poll would look like this (please keep votes in alphabetical order):
  • Ariz 0-2
  • ASU 1-2
  • Cal 2-2
  • OSU 3+
  • Stan 3-0
  • UCLA 2-2

edited by Dodger Matt on 5/30/2011
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5/29/2011 1:27:19 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
Beavers get a regional!
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5/29/2011 1:32:25 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1460
Here are the regional sites. UCLA, Arizona St. and OSU from the Pac 10
http://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/2011-05-29/2011-regional-hosts-announced
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5/29/2011 1:42:51 PM

BeaverBeliever20
BeaverBeliever20
Posts: 129
Glad the Beavers are still hosting a regional. Hopefully they can win today and still get to be a 1 seed.
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5/29/2011 2:30:08 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1217
At this point, I'll take whatever we can get. I've been very bummed these last 2 weekends. But hey! We ARE in the post season and we ARE hosting a regional.
edited by Florida Beaver on 5/29/2011
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5/29/2011 4:40:26 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
The Beavers will be a 1 seed...they won't send Arkansas to Corvallis as a 1 seed. There isn't a team that can be a 1 seed over the Beavers that wasn't fully capable of hosting themselves (especially with 3 West Coast regionals)
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5/29/2011 4:55:15 PM

NolesFanJosh
NolesFanJosh
Posts: 127
At this point though, OSU has opened the door for many possibilities to occur, some of which I thought absurd up until 2 wks ago.
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5/29/2011 6:37:46 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
NolesFanJosh wrote:
At this point though, OSU has opened the door for many possibilities to occur, some of which I thought absurd up until 2 wks ago.
Yeah, I agree. Dam Beavers.
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5/29/2011 6:53:25 PM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1044
Kneel!
UCLA won the Pac 10, Congradulations Bruins!

Baseball at all levels can be a very humbling game. ASU & OSU will testify to that.

At this point, all slates are clear and 64 teams will each have a chance to take all the marbles in Omaha.
Good luck to all 64.

--
Go Devils !!
Fork Off
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5/29/2011 7:53:45 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1217
DM,

First and foremost, I have tremendous respect for your dedication to this prediction business. I am sure I speak for most of us that have been participating that you have made the season on here very enjoyable and gave most of us something to look forward to every week. Thanks again for doing this for the, what, 3rd year in a row. I like the format you have for the regionals. (Course, any format that I don't have to do, I like) I look forward to seeingwho and where later this week. For now, I'm gonna go find a dark closet, shut and lock the door and have a nice cry for no Pac 10 championship and no National seed. Dam it.
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5/29/2011 8:25:46 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1460
OpihiMan wrote:
The Beavers will be a 1 seed...they won't send Arkansas to Corvallis as a 1 seed. There isn't a team that can be a 1 seed over the Beavers that wasn't fully capable of hosting themselves (especially with 3 West Coast regionals)


Ophiman, I'm counting on you and others in this forum, especially the Pac 10 crew and Beaver Nation to provide regular updates on the Scoreboard next weekend. Unfortunately, I have the arduous task of playing 36 holes of golf each day, Thursday through Sunday, in Reno. I'll have to miss the games.
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5/29/2011 8:51:05 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1460
Florida Beaver wrote:
DM,

First and foremost, I have tremendous respect for your dedication to this prediction business. I am sure I speak for most of us that have been participating that you have made the season on here very enjoyable and gave most of us something to look forward to every week. Thanks again for doing this for the, what, 3rd year in a row. I like the format you have for the regionals. (Course, any format that I don't have to do, I like) I look forward to seeingwho and where later this week. For now, I'm gonna go find a dark closet, shut and lock the door and have a nice cry for no Pac 10 championship and no National seed. Dam it.


DM, I agree with FB. Thanks for the work you do with the PAC 10 predictions. It makes my otherwise boring and mundane life meaningful.

FB, make sure your wife removes any clothes that you could use to do damage to yourself while you spend time in the closet. I’d hate to see any self inflicted damage happen to the foremost expert in Beaver demography and faith.

I’ve copied just a few quotes from your writings that have inspired me this year. I hope there is more to come.


It's the amount of hair covering the beaver. Florida is quite warm, so the beavers tend to have less hair or are shaved. A southern beaver has more hair because it can get cold in the south. (The Mason/Dixon line is in snow country if you didn't know.) Northern beavers usually are covered because of the extreme cold. In Oregon, beavers tend to stay wet. My wife says she doesn't mind a bald beaver. Me? I rather have hair on mine, but genetics says otherwise., dam it.


Oh yea Gods of Baseball........Hear the Beaver pleas..........You know the Beaver is the favorite...........Man like nothing better than Beavers........Man likes almost nothing better than roast Duck(see previous plea)...........Beavers cannot be beaten with your help, GOB........let the lightening touch the Beaver bats making them hard and strong........Lend the Beaver feet wings and make them fleet.......Make Beaver eyes sharp........Make Beaver mitts ball magnets.........Lend the Beaver arms muscles true and strong.......

Oh yea Gods of Baseball........hear our plea and let the Ducks be plucked........Let the earth draw Duck bats down making the weak and unable to rise.........Give the Duck wings to the Beavers........Blind the Ducks and let the sunlight shine in their eyes........Make Duck mitts full of holes.........Suck the strength from the Duck arms and legs....


Oh yea Gods of Baseball... Hear the plea from your Beavers......Brown Beavers.......Black Beavers........Silver Beavers.......Red Beavers........The rare and elusive true Blonde Beaver.........The shaved Beavers......The short haired Beavers.....The long haired Beaver.......The Beavers of every shape......The Beaver of every size......The good smelling Beavers.....The bad smelling Beavers (give them a bath too).......Tall Beavers.....Short Beavers......Wide Beavers......Skinny Beavers.......Pretty Beavers.......Ugly Beavers......Average Beavers.......Oh yea Gods of Baseball......Hear the prayer of every Beaver in the US of A........Let every Beaver be praised.......Let us kneel and worship the Beavers........From afar and from close......Let every Beaver rejoice and share their blessing......Oh yea Gods of Baseball.......Hear our plea.....
edited by BeaverBob on 5/29/2011
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5/29/2011 10:38:48 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Florida Beaver wrote:
DM, First and foremost, I have tremendous respect for your dedication to this prediction business. I am sure I speak for most of us that have been participating that you have made the season on here very enjoyable and gave most of us something to look forward to every week. Thanks again for doing this for the, what, 3rd year in a row. I like the format you have for the regionals. (Course, any format that I don't have to do, I like) I look forward to seeing who and where later this week. For now, I'm gonna go find a dark closet, shut and lock the door and have a nice cry for no Pac 10 championship and no National seed. Dam it.

BeaverBob wrote:
DM, I agree with FB. Thanks for the work you do with the PAC 10 predictions. It makes my otherwise boring and mundane life meaningful. FB, make sure your wife removes any clothes that you could use to do damage to yourself while you spend time in the closet. I’d hate to see any self inflicted damage happen to the foremost expert in Beaver demography and faith.

Thanks, all. It's my weekend passion, and I do it cuz there are enough folks interested in playing along.

FB, one minor adjustment to what Bob said. Make sure your wife removes her clothing from that closet, because we don't want to see what you look like when you come out of the closet otherwise.

Bob, 36 holes of golf a day in Reno for four days is boring and mundane, huh?
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5/30/2011 10:42:40 AM

BeaverBeliever20
BeaverBeliever20
Posts: 129
I like the Corvallis regional, won't be too tough. I thought Arkansas would be a 2 in the Corvallis regional but Georgia went there instead. I think Oregon State handles that regional and moves on.
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5/30/2011 11:24:02 AM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1460
UALR??????

For those of you, like me, who were wondering who he heck is UALR, I've included a link below. It's a shame a school with a 24-32 record gets into the tournament.
http://www.ualrtrojans.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=7400&SPID=2820&SPSID=35699
edited by BeaverBob on 5/30/2011
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5/30/2011 11:30:26 AM

BeaverBeliever20
BeaverBeliever20
Posts: 129
BeaverBob wrote:
UALR??????

For those of you like me were wondering who he heck is UALR, I've included a link below. It's a shame a school with a 24-32 record gets into the tournament.
http://www.ualrtrojans.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=7400&SPID=2820&SPSID=35699




I was familiar with them, can't say I'm disappointed to have them in there. This regional makes it much more likely the Beavers advance. I know we shouldn't look ahead, but a Vanderbilt-Oregon State super regional in Nashville would be fun. Hopefully the Beavers take care of business but who knows, maybe Ok State pulls an upset and the Beavers can host a super regional.
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5/30/2011 12:16:57 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Updated original post. Place your picks.
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5/30/2011 12:43:21 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
BeaverBob wrote:
UALR??????

For those of you, like me, who were wondering who he heck is UALR, I've included a link below. It's a shame a school with a 24-32 record gets into the tournament.
http://www.ualrtrojans.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=7400&SPID=2820&SPSID=35699
edited by BeaverBob on 5/30/2011

yeah, take a look at their top 3 pitchers in e.r.a
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5/30/2011 1:01:28 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
I know folks are going to be voting already, but I wanted to throw in my amateur analysis.

Here's the order in which I think the committee ranked these teams, from top to bottom:
  • 6 Arizona State
  • 14 Oregon State
  • 18 UCLA
  • 16 Stanford
  • 21 Arizona
  • 23 California
Let's look at them one at a time:
  • 6 Arizona State
  • 22 Arkansas
  • 78 Charlotte
  • 135 New Mexico
This looks a like a good even pairing. Charlotte's ISR is a little low for a #3. (Their RPI is 76.) But Arkansas is a good enough team to give ASU a fight.
  • 14 Oregon State
  • 25 Creighton
  • 32 Georgia
  • 157 Arkansas-Little Rock
This regional has two #2 seeds. In fact, from a Rat's Patootie perspective, Creighton and Georgia both have higher RPIs than OSU (29 and 17 respectively, compared to 31). Creighton supposedly has an excellent defense. And Georgia, inconsistent conference play notwithstanding, has some decent signature victories. Whichever of those teams faces OSU in the second game could give the Beavers some trouble.
  • 18 UCLA
  • 11 Fresno State
  • 17 UC Irvine
  • 49 San Francisco
Every year the west has a Regional of Death, and this is it. In terms of ISR, the #1 seed Bruins are only the third best team here. even USF, at 49, is a good team, one of the best 4 seeds out there. UCI did not have the banner year many expected, and Fresno dropped in their last couple weekends to lose their own hosting opportunity, but both teams could bite the Bruins. That said, I'm not sure that UCLA, with the way they're playing and with that starting rotation, is going to lose this regional.
  • 8 CS Fullerton
  • 16 Stanford
  • 43 Kansas State
  • 137 Illinois
Another epic matchup between top 16 (ISR and RPI) CSF and Stanford teams. The Cardinal have some good wins, but they seem to have underperformed all year. KSU is a good #3, but I think they will be overshadowed by the top two teams in this regional. Illinois enjoys some sunshine in LA and hopes for a win.
  • 10 Texas A&M
  • 21 Arizona
  • 89 Seton Hall
  • 117 Wright State
Seton Hall stole the BE championship with an 8-game winning streak, or they would not be here. They are a low 3, but their ace, Joe Dirocco (8-1 1.68 ERA), could be worth an upset. If Arizona gets by him, aTm looks beatable to me.
  • 13 Rice (#8)
  • 41 Baylor
  • 23 California
  • 219 Alcorn State
This regional looks like the toughest for a Pac-10 to win. Disregard the fact that Baylor (a legitimate #3) and Cal are reversed in seeding; it makes little difference. But Cal will have to play consistent baseball for at least three games, something they have not done for over a month. Rice is probably a little overrated to be a national seed, but they are still top 16 caliber. If Cal can get through Rice (a tall order), they would face the winner of the TCU regional, which would be the easiest of the projected super regional matchups.
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5/30/2011 1:14:05 PM

BeaverBeliever20
BeaverBeliever20
Posts: 129
Arizona 2-2
ASU 3+
Cal 1-2
Oregon State 3-0
Stanford 3+
UCLA 3-0
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