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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-10: POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

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6/2/2011 11:27:42 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
I hate to say it, but I fear an upset at goss this week. Don't hate me if it happens.
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6/2/2011 11:29:59 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Arizona 2-2
ASU 3+
Cal 1-2
Oregon State 2-2
Stanford 2-2
UCLA 3-0
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6/3/2011 12:15:20 AM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1460
Dodger Matt wrote:
Can't get image resizing to work, but there's a message in your inbox.


Got it fixed. Thanks for posting the link in my email DM.
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6/3/2011 12:31:10 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Okay, I think that's about all the votes we're gonna get (12). Here's your pick analysis:
       3    3+   2    1    0          W    L    Pct. 
OSU 4 7 1 0 0 : 11 1 0.917
ASU 4 7 1 0 0 : 11 1 0.917
UCLA 7 3 2 0 0 : 10 2 0.833
Stan 1 5 6 0 0 : 6 6 0.500
Ariz 0 3 8 1 0 : 3 9 0.250
Cal 0 1 5 6 0 : 1 11 0.083
Just note that the "W" (wins) columns is a tad misleading because the 3+ vote is not exactly a vote that that team will advance; it is a vote that that team will finish with a winning record (3-1, 3-2, or 4-1). Probably an advance, but not necessarily. So....

OSU and ASU have the same number of folks predicting success, with UCLA not far behind. Stanford is right in the middle, maybe even below it because 5 of their 6 Ws are 3+ votes. Arizona and Cal are not given much of a chance to advance.

Good luck to everyone, especially the players.
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6/3/2011 9:26:15 AM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
Riverduck wrote:
I hate to say it, but I fear an upset at goss this week. Don't hate me if it happens.


oh river, we WILL hate you if that happens because OBVIOUSLY you have total control over what the beavers do ;P

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GO BEAVS!
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6/3/2011 9:46:16 AM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
Dodger Matt wrote:
ISR Probabilities

Boyd has his probabilities out. Before you Beaver fans freak out, you have to understand that these
are based on each team's ISR for every level of the competition until you get to that 2.0% chance
for OSU to win the NC. The percentages will all change after the first round, when we will get at
least one or two upsets. The important thing is to look at what our projected chances are for this
round. Oregon State has a 72% chance of advancing. The SEC darling that the Rivals board has
already crowned the regional winner has an 11% chance, less than Creighton (who looks more
impressive to me on paper anyway).

All Pac-10 teams
ASU:    80.2%  
OSU: 71.8%
UCLA: 34.0%
Ariz: 28.6%
Stan: 23.8%
Cal: 17.4%


just doing the most basic math of 1/64 giving each and every team an equal chance of winning the NC the beavs are at 1.562% so ill take the 2% boyd is giving us. if we make it to the supers again basic math and equal chance tells us 1/16 is 6.25% (obviously boyd will have a different number as not all teams are created equal, and if vandy gets upset and we host that # will rise drastically) so i am not too concerned about that number at all

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GO BEAVS!
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6/3/2011 1:06:26 PM

SouthernBeaver
SouthernBeaver
Posts: 200
OSU also announced it is saving Gaviglio and Osich, and starting Nygren on Friday. They must have seen something they liked in the first matchup, feeling confident to give their first two starters another day of rest.
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6/3/2011 1:26:48 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
SouthernBeaver wrote:
OSU also announced it is saving Gaviglio and Osich, and starting Nygren on Friday. They must have seen something they liked in the first matchup, feeling confident to give their first two starters another day of rest.


excellent, as i posted in the post about the corvallis regional this is exactly what i would have done, save your two best guys for the better opponents

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GO BEAVS!
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6/3/2011 1:29:39 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1217
Riverduck wrote:
I hate to say it, but I fear an upset at goss this week. Don't hate me if it happens.


You do not. Oh, but I will.

You must be a girl cuz you hate Beavers so much
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6/3/2011 3:01:03 PM

SouthernBeaver
SouthernBeaver
Posts: 200
zona just lost their first game, though it would have taken a big upset otherwise, so it was to be expected.
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6/3/2011 3:24:43 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
SouthernBeaver wrote:
zona just lost their first game, though it would have taken a big upset otherwise, so it was to be expected.
I was unable to check stats and live game updates. Did Seton Hall have a good ace? Arizona has some decent bats, and I expected a better offensive showing. Now they will be lucky to go 2-2.
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6/3/2011 3:53:45 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Cal loses to Baylor, 6-4. So far the Pac is 0-2.
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6/3/2011 7:15:49 PM

MostUnknown
MostUnknown
Posts: 156
Beavs down already? Yikes.
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6/3/2011 7:31:25 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1217
Freakin game tracker isn't working and I am stuck at work. dam dam dam
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6/3/2011 8:00:17 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Florida Beaver wrote:
Freakin game tracker isn't working and I am stuck at work. dam dam dam

FB, can you get video streams?
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6/3/2011 8:06:48 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1217
Nope. Not allowed on our 'puters here at work
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6/3/2011 8:23:55 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1217
Probably just as well. I'd be sceaming at the computer screen about right now. 4-0??? Really?4-0????Are we imploding or what? I mean this IS LITTLE ROCK!!!!!!!!
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6/3/2011 9:17:22 PM

BeaverBeliever20
BeaverBeliever20
Posts: 129
FB, I'm sure you're okay now that the Beavers are back ahead. Beavers always have had trouble with 4 seeds when hosting, I expected a tight game.
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6/3/2011 9:38:20 PM

rec1347
rec1347
Posts: 48
Looks like UCLA should have used their ace tonight instead of saving him. USF has a very sound, tough team.
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6/3/2011 9:46:21 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1217
This is going to be a very tough 3 days on me being at work and having to watch the D1 scoreboard to find out the scores. So we play Creighton tomorrow. Anyone know anything about them? I heard they are a pretty good team, but play in a not-so-tough conference.
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