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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-10: SUPER REGIONAL PREDICTIONS

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6/7/2011 7:38:49 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
First time I've tried doing supers, so I'm not promising a good even spread in the results. I've upped the scores a bit, especially on the winning end, to provide a possible range similar (albeit a little lower) to our regular season prediction scores.

There are four possibilities for each super regional:
  • 0-2: The team loses the first two games and is done.
  • 1-2: The team wins one of the first two then loses the third game and is done.
  • 2-1: The team wins one of the first two games then wins the third and goes to Omaha.
  • 2-0: The team wins the first two games and goes to Omaha.
Here's how the scoring goes. Your pick is along the top; actual result is on the side:
                        
You pick: 0-2 1-2 2-1 2-0
0-2 6 4 2 0
1-2 4 6 3 1
2-1 1 3 6 5
2-0 0 1 4 7
Note that a team that goes 2-0 will give you the most points if you pick them to go 2-0 and almost as much if you pick them to go 2-1. This kind of encourages optimism, but it also provides some separation. If this is not enough to provide a clear winner, for a tiebreaker, how about this:

TIEBREAKER: Guess the total amount of runs scored by all teams in Game One of each super. Must be at least 4 and as high as...40? 80?

Lastly, instead of providing a series by series analysis, which I frankly don't have time for right now, I would like to open that up to the first four who want to provide them. Pick one series and give us an overview of each team’s strengths and weaknesses, who their projected three starters are, ERAs, whatever. And let someone else do the next series review.

Here are the supers:
  • ASU at Texas
  • Dallas Baptist at Cal
  • OSU at Vanderbilt
  • Stan at North Carolina
Let's wait for the series previews before you start voting, but for those who only read this long message once, here's what a sample ballot would look like. (PLEASE, remember to keep them IN ORDER and USE THE ABBREVIATIONS!)

ASU 0-2
Cal 1-2
OSU 2-1
Stan 2-0
Tiebreaker: 23
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6/8/2011 12:12:22 AM

BeaverBeliever20
BeaverBeliever20
Posts: 129
ASU 2-1
Cal 2-0
OSU 2-1
Stanford 2-1
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6/8/2011 2:10:53 AM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
ASU 2-1
Cal 2-0
OSU 1-2
Stan 1-2
Tiebreaker: 32
.
edited by OpihiMan on 6/8/2011
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6/8/2011 10:03:57 AM

SouthernBeaver
SouthernBeaver
Posts: 200
ASU 2-1
Cal 2-1
OSU 2-1
Stan 1-2
Tiebreaker: 18
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6/8/2011 10:41:21 AM

MostUnknown
MostUnknown
Posts: 156
ASU 1-2
Cal 1-2
OSU 1-2
Stan 2-1
Tiebreaker: 38
I wanted to pick at least a few to get through. But I would really like to see DB win and I just don't see how ASU beats Texas twice. OSU/Vandy could go either way but my gut says Vandy. Which leaves Stanford as my token Pac 10 pick. All of em should go 3 though.
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6/8/2011 11:17:47 AM

YellowlabOSU
YellowlabOSU
Posts: 34
ASU 2-1
Cal 2-1
OSU 2-0 I can't vote against the beavers!!
Stan 0-2
Tiebreaker: 24
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6/8/2011 11:33:23 AM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
to give DM a break I will take a crack at providing some series break downs, first up is ASU @ Texas

ASU 42-16 overall @ Texas 47-16 overall

Two very good, very talented tradition rich teams (11 national titles between them 6 for UT and 5 for ASU) go at it for a berth in the CWS

ASU was the pick to win the pac10 but came just short of that goal going 17-10 in conference play including series losses to OSU USC and UCLA still a very talented team that can not be taken lightly.

The Devils will probable start RHP Kramer Champlin who is 9-3 in 16 starts he has 110.2 innings pitched with an ERA of 2.93 and 91 Ks. teams are batting .246 against him and he has given up 6 home runs <-------fixed with current year player.

The Longhorns went 19-8 in the Big12 and tied with aTm for 1st place in conference with their only series loss coming at Oklahoma State.

Texas will probably start RHP Taylor Jungmann in game 1 who is 13-1 in 17 appearances (16 starts) has an ERA of 1.39 with 5 complete games. He has 129.1 innings pitched with 120 Ks teams are batting only .167 against him and he has given up only 4 home runs.

While this series is winnable for ASU, Texas has only lost 8 home games all season and ASU is only 12-5 on the road this season. In years past ASU has relied on the long ball to get the job done with the new bats that has not been easy and with Texas’ excellent rotation (their usual weekend starters have a combined ERA of 2.02 with 13 HR’s given up between them) that will be difficult as well.

hope this helps, i will get to the other ones as time at work allows (doing this between phone calls)
edited by borgguy on 6/8/2011

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GO BEAVS!
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6/8/2011 12:25:14 PM

Lute31
Lute31
Posts: 12
borgguy wrote:
to give DM a break I will take a crack at providing some series break downs, first up is ASU @ Texas

ASU 42-16 overall @ Texas 47-16 overall

Two very good, very talented tradition rich teams (11 national titles between them 6 for UT and 5 for ASU) go at it for a berth in the CWS

ASU was the pick to win the pac10 but came just short of that goal going 17-10 in conference play including series losses to OSU USC and UCLA still a very talented team that can not be taken lightly.

The Devils will most likely start RHP Seth Blair in game 1 who is 12-1 in 18 appearances (all starts) with an ERA of 3.64 he has 106.1 IP with 108 Ks teams are batting .274 against him has given up 11 home runs all season.

The Longhorns went 19-8 in the Big12 and tied with aTm for 1st place in conference with their only series loss coming at Oklahoma State.

Texas will probably start RHP Taylor Jungmann in game 1 who is 13-1 in 17 appearances (16 starts) has an ERA of 1.39 with 5 complete games. He has 129.1 innings pitched with 120 Ks teams are batting only .167 against him and he has given up only 4 home runs.

While this series is winnable for ASU, Texas has only lost 8 home games all season and ASU is only 12-5 on the road this season. In years past ASU has relied on the long ball to get the job done with the new bats that has not been easy and with Texas’ excellent rotation (their usual weekend starters have a combined ERA of 2.02 with 13 HR’s given up between them) that will be difficult as well.

hope this helps, i will get to the other ones as time at work allows (doing this between phone calls)


Wow, Seth Blair is coming back to pitch this weekend??!! I think you have the wrong years stats in from of you. Maybe Mike Leake is available too.
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6/8/2011 12:28:33 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
Lute31 wrote:
borgguy wrote:
to give DM a break I will take a crack at providing some series break downs, first up is ASU @ Texas

ASU 42-16 overall @ Texas 47-16 overall

Two very good, very talented tradition rich teams (11 national titles between them 6 for UT and 5 for ASU) go at it for a berth in the CWS

ASU was the pick to win the pac10 but came just short of that goal going 17-10 in conference play including series losses to OSU USC and UCLA still a very talented team that can not be taken lightly.

The Devils will most likely start RHP Seth Blair in game 1 who is 12-1 in 18 appearances (all starts) with an ERA of 3.64 he has 106.1 IP with 108 Ks teams are batting .274 against him has given up 11 home runs all season.

The Longhorns went 19-8 in the Big12 and tied with aTm for 1st place in conference with their only series loss coming at Oklahoma State.

Texas will probably start RHP Taylor Jungmann in game 1 who is 13-1 in 17 appearances (16 starts) has an ERA of 1.39 with 5 complete games. He has 129.1 innings pitched with 120 Ks teams are batting only .167 against him and he has given up only 4 home runs.

While this series is winnable for ASU, Texas has only lost 8 home games all season and ASU is only 12-5 on the road this season. In years past ASU has relied on the long ball to get the job done with the new bats that has not been easy and with Texas’ excellent rotation (their usual weekend starters have a combined ERA of 2.02 with 13 HR’s given up between them) that will be difficult as well.

hope this helps, i will get to the other ones as time at work allows (doing this between phone calls)


Wow, Seth Blair is coming back to pitch this weekend??!! I think you have the wrong years stats in from of you. Maybe Mike Leake is available too.


BLAST!!!!!!!!

thanks for letting me know, i guess ill have to go back and fix that, and get THIS years stats

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GO BEAVS!
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6/8/2011 12:38:42 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
ok double checked and im PRETTY sure i have 2011 info for this one

Dallas Baptist (42-18) vs Cal 35-21 (in santa clara)

The Feel Good Super Regional. Cal who was facing extinction following this season till a big donor push saved them from the brink, versus independent Dallas Baptist who has never been to the CWS before (in fact joined D1 in 2005).

DBU is no stranger to success, they won the NCCAA (national CHRISTIAN college athletic association) national title in 2003 and 2004, when they made a regional in 2008 they became the first independent other than Miami to make a regional since 1992.

DBU will probably start RHP Jared Stafford who is 8-4 in 15 starts with an ERA 3.03 he has 101 Innings Pitched with 60 ks teams are batting .239 against him and he has given up 5 home runs.

They have played some big name opponents this year and played them well with single game victories over Oklahoma State, TCU, Rice, Oklahoma, aTm. They are 4-2 this year on neutral sites.

California is certainly a surprise to make it to the Super regional as they finished 13-13 in conference play with some bad losses and some quality wins, its kind of hard to figure this team out, but with their amazing come from behind win against Baylor on Monday, the bears are high on confidence and playing close to home will be a benefit as well. Cal is 8-3 on neutral sites, but this is about as friendly a neutral site could be for them just up the road in santa clara

Cal will probably start RHP Eric Johnson who is 6-4 with 16 starts with an ERA of 2.91. In 96 innings pitched he has 96 Ks teams are batting .194 against him and he has allowed 3 home runs.

Should be a good series and a happy storyline regardless of who wins, but the slight edge would have to be to Cal playing close to home and to show that the decision to try and axe them was a bad one.

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GO BEAVS!
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6/8/2011 12:54:26 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1459
ASU 1-2
Cal 2-0
OSU 2-1
Stan 1-2
Tiebreaker: 22
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6/8/2011 2:18:43 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
OSU (41-17) vs Vanderbilt (50-10)

An ALMOST rematch, last time Oregon State went to a super regional in 2007 they played the winner of the Nashville regional which was hosted by top overall seed Vandy, but thanks to an upset by Michigan, OSU got to come home and the rest as they say, is history.

THIS time around, Vanderbilt took care of business at home, winning all three games in convincing fashion, as opposed to Oregon State, who struggled early against UALR took care of Creighton, then battled Georgia to the very end.


Most of us on this board are familiar with OSU’s season and its ups and downs (since most of us are beaver fans, and the rest have to deal with said beaver fans )

Beavers will almost certainly start Gaviglio who is 12-2 in 16 starts with an ERA of 1.87. He has pitched 115.1 innings struck out 113 batters and teams are hitting .200 against him, he has allowed 3 home runs.

Vanderbilt will probably start RHP Sonny Gray who is 11-3 in 16 starts with an ERA of 2.01 he has 107.2 innings pitched and 115 Ks teams are batting only .192 against him and he has given up 4 home runs.

Game 1 will be a pitchers duel if both aces are on their game, which I have no reason to think that they wont, timely hitting will be key in this game, and that has been a strength for the beavers over the majority of the season (barring games against USC and UO). Vandy is also a very good hitting team their usual starting 9 are all batting .300 or better.

Vandy is 29-4 at home, so they are not accustomed to losing in their own park whereas the Beavers are only 12-9 on the road, but Coach Casey has a knack for getting his teams up for the challenge. I see all 3 games as toss ups I think these teams are very evenly matched and it should go 3 games with each game probably being decided by 2 or less runs

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GO BEAVS!
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6/8/2011 3:24:46 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
and for our last matchup....

Stanford (35-20) @ North Carolina (48-14)


Both teams had high expectations entering the season, expecting to reach this point in the post season. Stanford’s road has been somewhat rocky. Despite mostly good pitching, they frequently found themselves on the wrong end of games as the bats just weren’t there. North Carolina has been playing well all season, and looks to make its 5th trip to Omaha in the last 6 years (having made it in 06 and 07 only to lose to OSU in the title game, being eliminated by eventual champ Fresno state in 08 and being eliminated by Arizona State in 09 in Pat Murphy’s 1000th win).

Stanford battled its way through the regular season finishing 14-12 in conference then surprised in the Fullerton regional to make it to the Supers

UNC took care of business during the regular season going 20-10 in the ACC and breezed through their regional beating Maine 4-0 then James Madison twice by a combined score of 23-3 (14-0 and 9-3)

Stanford will likely start RHP Mark Appel a sophomore who is 6-6 in 16 starts with an ERA of 3.02 in 104.1 innings he has struck out 83 walked 26, teams are batting .276 against him and he has only allowed one home run.

He will probably be opposed by Senior RHP Patrick Johnson who is 12-1 in 16 appearances (15 starts) he has an ERA of 2.36 and in 99.1 innings has 113 Ks to 29 walks teams are batting .210 against him and he has allowed 3 home runs.

North Carolina is 34-3 at home and Stanford is 15-13 on the road

Unfortunately for Stanford, UNC is playing extremely good baseball right now, and with the Cardinal’s issues with consistency, this could turn into a long weekend for them, but one never knows, however would not be surprised to see Mike Fox make the almost annual vacation to Omaha again.

i know that these arent on par with the usual level that DM provides, however i hope this helps everyone.

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GO BEAVS!
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6/8/2011 3:30:11 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
now that ive posted all those here are my picks
ASU 2-1 ( i stated in my regional prediction that i liked them against anyone in austin home or away, im going to stick with that )
Cal 2-0 (sorry DBU cal is playing too good and is at "home." welcome to the big time DBU, im sure we will see you again)

OSU 2-0 (boundless optimism, even though i said each game was a toss-up i think the toss will come up beavs both times!)

Stan 0-2 (as i posted, stanfords inconsistency will be thier downfall and UNC is playing too well) (EDIT: realized i posted this backwards as UNC, when supposed to be stan first)
edited by borgguy on 6/8/2011

d'oh! i forgot tie breaker :15
edited by borgguy on 6/8/2011

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GO BEAVS!
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6/8/2011 4:51:03 PM

unc70
unc70
Posts: 6
Thanks Borgguy. Good job.

Obviously I am biased regarding the Heels. You have done a good job showing the challenge Stanford faces coming into the Bosh. But I think there are two points deserving more emphasis. First is the home field advantage. Just three loses all season, two of them to Miami. UNC is undefeated at home in regional play since 2006.

Second, Patrick Johnson is pitching better than his 12-1 record. In his last three outings, 23 scoreless innings on just 6 hits: a CG 3H shutout of UVA, 6 no hit innings against Wake, and 8 innings allowing 3H in 14-0 win over James Madison. Freshman pitcher Kent Emmanuel isn't too far behind, though he gave up two runs to UVA in the ACCT in a game marred by UNC's 2 errors; he last went 8 innings, 7 hits, in 4-0 win over Maine.
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6/8/2011 5:16:29 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
unc70 wrote:
Thanks Borgguy. Good job.

Obviously I am biased regarding the Heels. You have done a good job showing the challenge Stanford faces coming into the Bosh. But I think there are two points deserving more emphasis. First is the home field advantage. Just three loses all season, two of them to Miami. UNC is undefeated at home in regional play since 2006.

Second, Patrick Johnson is pitching better than his 12-1 record. In his last three outings, 23 scoreless innings on just 6 hits: a CG 3H shutout of UVA, 6 no hit innings against Wake, and 8 innings allowing 3H in 14-0 win over James Madison. Freshman pitcher Kent Emmanuel isn't too far behind, though he gave up two runs to UVA in the ACCT in a game marred by UNC's 2 errors; he last went 8 innings, 7 hits, in 4-0 win over Maine.


first thank you

second these are excellent points and part of why im picking the 'Heels to win in 2

hope to meet you in the first round of the CWS!

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GO BEAVS!
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6/8/2011 6:26:45 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
borgguy wrote:
i know that these arent on par with the usual level that DM provides, however i hope this helps everyone.

Ha. Don't sell yourself short, man, you done good.

One note to unc70: Stanford is playing (right now) much better than they have throughout the season. Mark Appel's record looks cheesy compared to Patrick Johnson's, but he dealt against CSF in their house. Plus Stanford knows how to trap balls and sell it to umps that they have made awesome catches. The Heels could end up getting their balls trapped.
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6/8/2011 8:18:16 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
Color me Pac 10 happy, but I'm betting all 4 Pac 10 teams see Omaha this year. With that said,

ASU 2-0
Cal 2-0
OSU 2-0
Stan 2-1
Tie breakers - 34

borgguy, Thanks for your super regional previews. Very nice. Quite on par with DM. (A little light on the OSU info though LOL)
edited by Florida Beaver on 6/9/2011
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6/8/2011 11:57:27 PM

unc70
unc70
Posts: 6
borgguy,

As happy as I usually am to see beavers, and as much as I have been helped by those here in leaning to appreciate the regional and individual differences among beavers, my experience when coming up against beavers in Omaha has been less than satisfying.

You guys have a tough assignment in Nashville. If we meet up next week, hope this will be our turn. Except for the outcomes, those were a couple of great championship series we had.
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6/9/2011 6:45:39 AM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1040
ASU 1-2 Fork Off (I'll be there)
CAL 2-0 These are the comeback kids. I was sitting right behind the dugout last Monday. These guys have moxy.
OSU 0-2 (sorry guys...just how I see it)
STAN 1-2
Tie breaker: 25

My baseball picks this year are kinda like my stock picks. If I go long on a stock ya better short it! I've been bottom feeding with ya'll most of the year. If I pick a team to loose, ya can pretty much bet they will take home the bacon.

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Go Devils !!
Fork Off
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