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7/1/2011 8:04:53 AM

weg313
weg313
Posts: 134
Since Kendall has yet to post his early picks for the 2012 CWS, thought I'd start the thread to get the thoughts of others. I'm basing my selections on returning, proven talent. In no particular order (though I think Florida is going to be prohibitive favorites, with Stanford right behind, as both teams are absolutely loaded), here's my list:

SEC: Florida, Arkansas, LSU
Pac-12: Stanford, Arizona (I'm presuming ASU will be on probation)
ACC: Georgia Tech
Big 12: Texas A&M
C-USA: Rice

IMO, teams such as Texas, FSU, Vandy, South Carolina, UVA, UCLA, TCU, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Clemson lose far too much talent-- particularly in the frontline pitching area-- to enter the 2012 season in the Top 10, though all should be Top 25 once again. St.Johns may be the sleeper pick.

--
In Wayne Graham we trust.
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7/1/2011 9:36:00 AM

Kendall
Kendall
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Posts: 7540
Good stuff, Walt. I'll have my list out on Tuesday.

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Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
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Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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7/1/2011 11:11:42 AM

CockyTexan
CockyTexan
Posts: 5
I like the list walt, I would make one change in the SEC. Call it a homer pick but, I like South Carolina once again to return over LSU or Arkansas (one of those teams is out.) As far as proven talent returning, South Carolina is returning their entire weekend rotation (as Michael Roth announced at the trophy celebration he would be returning) and is only losing John Taylor, and Jose Mata to graduation out of the pen. Price is a question mark but if he were to leave there are several others in the pen (Webb, Casey, Neff) to replace him who have the talent. Granted we are losing Wingo, Bradley, Morales, Beary, and Thomas, which will hurt, I don't see that as too big of an issue because Christian Walker, Marzilli, Mooney, and hopefully Matthews (if he doesn't sign after being drafted very late) are all coming back as well as Stephen Neff who can pick up a bat as DH if needed, all will be a solid foundation in the lineup to help guide new players.

Now Walt I know you said on proven talent so on that basis I can see how we would be left off the list, but with the core of guys returning and if one "unproven" arm in the bullpen steps up, pitching wise we will be right where we were this year (I like Bryan Harper as my dark horse to step up next year)
Also, Im not to familiar with the guys that are coming in as freshman, but I do believe our recruiting class was top 10 in the nation for the 2012 season? (maybe you could help me out with that Kendall)
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7/1/2011 2:30:51 PM

gatoremt
gatoremt
Posts: 4
I would have to include UNC for the ACC. Ga Tech maybe but UNC is pretty young. Unless my noles bring in and build on the pitching they have. It is going to be a tough year.
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7/1/2011 3:46:26 PM

weg313
weg313
Posts: 134
CockyTexan wrote:
I like the list walt, I would make one change in the SEC. Call it a homer pick but, I like South Carolina once again to return over LSU or Arkansas (one of those teams is out.) As far as proven talent returning, South Carolina is returning their entire weekend rotation (as Michael Roth announced at the trophy celebration he would be returning) and is only losing John Taylor, and Jose Mata to graduation out of the pen. Price is a question mark but if he were to leave there are several others in the pen (Webb, Casey, Neff) to replace him who have the talent. Granted we are losing Wingo, Bradley, Morales, Beary, and Thomas, which will hurt, I don't see that as too big of an issue because Christian Walker, Marzilli, Mooney, and hopefully Matthews (if he doesn't sign after being drafted very late) are all coming back as well as Stephen Neff who can pick up a bat as DH if needed, all will be a solid foundation in the lineup to help guide new players.

Now Walt I know you said on proven talent so on that basis I can see how we would be left off the list, but with the core of guys returning and if one "unproven" arm in the bullpen steps up, pitching wise we will be right where we were this year (I like Bryan Harper as my dark horse to step up next year)
Also, Im not to familiar with the guys that are coming in as freshman, but I do believe our recruiting class was top 10 in the nation for the 2012 season? (maybe you could help me out with that Kendall)


Funny, but I was debating whether to include LSU or South Carolina on my list (and almost included UNC over A&M). I think Arkansas is a bit surer bet than either, however. My Aggie pick depends upon whether Stripling returns or not. If he doesn't, then i drop A&M out of my preseason Top 10, even though they do bring back most of their offense. As for incoming recruiting class, personally, i do not give that much weight in my preseason picks for a couple reasons: (1) all of the top programs are going to have newcomers who contribute, and (2) even the most highly regarded true Freshman are hit or miss their Freshman seasons. For every Matty Ott, Knebel, Purke, Ackley and Rendon there are other, equally highly regarded guys who struggle their Freshman year before making the necessary adjustments.
edited by weg313 on 7/1/2011

--
In Wayne Graham we trust.
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7/1/2011 8:17:11 PM

CockyTexan
CockyTexan
Posts: 5
weg313 wrote:
CockyTexan wrote:
I like the list walt, I would make one change in the SEC. Call it a homer pick but, I like South Carolina once again to return over LSU or Arkansas (one of those teams is out.) As far as proven talent returning, South Carolina is returning their entire weekend rotation (as Michael Roth announced at the trophy celebration he would be returning) and is only losing John Taylor, and Jose Mata to graduation out of the pen. Price is a question mark but if he were to leave there are several others in the pen (Webb, Casey, Neff) to replace him who have the talent. Granted we are losing Wingo, Bradley, Morales, Beary, and Thomas, which will hurt, I don't see that as too big of an issue because Christian Walker, Marzilli, Mooney, and hopefully Matthews (if he doesn't sign after being drafted very late) are all coming back as well as Stephen Neff who can pick up a bat as DH if needed, all will be a solid foundation in the lineup to help guide new players.

Now Walt I know you said on proven talent so on that basis I can see how we would be left off the list, but with the core of guys returning and if one "unproven" arm in the bullpen steps up, pitching wise we will be right where we were this year (I like Bryan Harper as my dark horse to step up next year)
Also, Im not to familiar with the guys that are coming in as freshman, but I do believe our recruiting class was top 10 in the nation for the 2012 season? (maybe you could help me out with that Kendall)


Funny, but I was debating whether to include LSU or South Carolina on my list (and almost included UNC over A&M). I think Arkansas is a bit surer bet than either, however. My Aggie pick depends upon whether Stripling returns or not. If he doesn't, then i drop A&M out of my preseason Top 10, even though they do bring back most of their offense. As for incoming recruiting class, personally, i do not give that much weight in my preseason picks for a couple reasons: (1) all of the top programs are going to have newcomers who contribute, and (2) even the most highly regarded true Freshman are hit or miss their Freshman seasons. For every Matty Ott, Knebel, Purke, Ackley and Rendon there are other, equally highly regarded guys who struggle their Freshman year before making the necessary adjustments.
edited by weg313 on 7/1/2011



I will agree with you on the incoming class. With that said I would put SC over LSU for the reason that they are likely losing Mahtook, and I believe some of the guys who were hitting around him will have a slight drop in production after his departure.
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7/2/2011 10:20:02 PM


Guest
Slightly bias, but I don't think UCLA will suffer as much as it would seem. It could be rough early on in the year but there is a lot of returning talent. We should be better at the plate(Not that we could get much worse) as some of the younger guys get another season of experience. Losing Cole and Bauer is huge, but we've got pretty good options. Plutko had an incredible freshman year and should step into the Friday role and be fine. Zack Weiss showed flashes and if that last game against UCI is any indication, hes capable of being a 2 or 3 and doing well. There's a couple other guys who could/should be in the mix as well.

Probably still not a top ten team though. Maybe Top 15-20.
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7/3/2011 7:01:21 AM

weg313
weg313
Posts: 134
Slightly bias, but I don't think UCLA will suffer as much as it would seem. It could be rough early on in the year but there is a lot of returning talent. We should be better at the plate(Not that we could get much worse) as some of the younger guys get another season of experience. Losing Cole and Bauer is huge, but we've got pretty good options. Plutko had an incredible freshman year and should step into the Friday role and be fine. Zack Weiss showed flashes and if that last game against UCI is any indication, hes capable of being a 2 or 3 and doing well. There's a couple other guys who could/should be in the mix as well.

Probably still not a top ten team though. Maybe Top 15-20.


??? You do realize you finished this past year (both the regular season and post-season) in the Top 15 - 20 range (with a much lower RPI ranking), and that relatively high finish based almost entirely on Cole and Bauer atop your rotation. Projecting a similar preseason ranking without your two aces makes no sense whatsoever.

--
In Wayne Graham we trust.
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7/3/2011 10:37:40 PM

MostUnknown
MostUnknown
Posts: 156
weg313 wrote:
Slightly bias, but I don't think UCLA will suffer as much as it would seem. It could be rough early on in the year but there is a lot of returning talent. We should be better at the plate(Not that we could get much worse) as some of the younger guys get another season of experience. Losing Cole and Bauer is huge, but we've got pretty good options. Plutko had an incredible freshman year and should step into the Friday role and be fine. Zack Weiss showed flashes and if that last game against UCI is any indication, hes capable of being a 2 or 3 and doing well. There's a couple other guys who could/should be in the mix as well.

Probably still not a top ten team though. Maybe Top 15-20.


??? You do realize you finished this past year (both the regular season and post-season) in the Top 15 - 20 range (with a much lower RPI ranking), and that relatively high finish based almost entirely on Cole and Bauer atop your rotation. Projecting a similar preseason ranking without your two aces makes no sense whatsoever.


Was more of a best case scenario, end of season projection(No clue why that logged me as a guest). Probably should have clarified that.
edited by MostUnknown on 7/3/2011
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