Not a member yet?
Subscribe Now!

Perfect Game Forum

Messages in this topic - RSS

Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 Predictions: Week 1 (plus overview BONUS!)

Want to make your opinion heard or just chat about college baseball? This is your place.
pages: 1 2 3 | show rated messages only | you must log in at the top of the page to post
2/12/2012 6:32:04 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
2012 Season Preview and Week 1 Preview

Since I am coming at this a little late, I’m streamlining. Here’s a brief conference preview followed by a look at this week’s games. For more detailed conference reviews, see Kendall’s topic on this site or Stitchhead’s preview (http://blogs.eastonbaseball.com/collegebaseballtoday/2012/02/06/2012-preview-the-pac-12).

Preseason Quick Preview
I wasn’t going to do a top-to-bottom prediction, but what the heck, here goes:
  • 1 Stanford
  • 2 Oregon State
  • 3 Arizona State
  • 4 Arizona
  • 5 UCLA
  • 6 Oregon
  • 7 Cal
  • 8 USC
  • 9 Wazzu
  • 10 Utah
  • 11 Washington
  • 12 Colorado

I'd say the top tier will be OSU, ASU, and Stanford. Stanford starts with a beastly OOC schedule that will test them early, but all the experts say they look to be the Pac-12’s best team. I think the Pac-12 crown could be decided when the Cardinal come to Corvallis the first weekend of May. OSU lost some key battery players, but also have some quality replacements, especially on the mound. Look for Adam Duke, Jace Fry, and Dylan Davis to make a big impact this year. Forget sanctions. USC had them in football, and they still beat the Ducks and should have played for the Pac-12 title. ASU baseball will be the same.

In the second tier, I'd place Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, and Cal. The Bruins have a decent team returning, but I think Cole and Bauer were far more responsible for last season's overall success that their absence this year will be noticeable. Cal's dream postseason exceeded even their expectations. They could contend, but I don't think it will be obvious what their potential will be out of the gate. I've been predicting good results from Arizona for the last three years, and this year looks like more of the same. Eric Sorenson locks them in at #2 this year (and OSU at #6), but he also predicted an 8th place finish for the Beavers last year, and they were #1 going into the last game of the regular season. Arizona visits Corvallis on the second week of conference play. If they win that series, then Sorenson may have it right; if the Beavers win it, the Wildcats are going to be in the 4th to 6th range.

Oregon had a disappointing 2011, but the humility I heard in Horton's voice at the end of the season greatly impressed me in a way that led me to believe he is settling in in the Pacific Northwest and will improve this year. When they restarted their baseball program, I said it would take them four or five years to get good, and when they experienced second season success, that it was a premature aberration that could harm the team and the fans with unrealistic expectations. Well, year 3 of the Horton Ducks was a downer (Q: How do you get downer from a duck?), but I think they are ready to turn the corner. (It doesn't hurt that there are also lesser teams in the league...

And that brings us to the third tier: USC, Wazzu, Utah, and UW. I like what USC's Frank Cruz did last year, and I only see them improving, albeit in baby steps. Wazzu severely disappointed last year, and they lost most of their best players. Utah will have some success, but I think they will be overwhelmed by the competition in their new league. The Huskies, although they will continue to improve under Coach Meggs, will fight to stay out of the cellar.

Week 1 Series
Stanford opens the season with four brutal OOC series, against Vanderbilt, Texas, @Fresno State, and Rice. Vandy at Sunken Diamond highlights this week’s series (as Stanford’s next three series probably will as well). Vandy hosts Oregon next week, so we should have a pretty good feel for how Pac-12 and SEC compare later in the season through the Commodores’ games against the Cardinal and Ducks.

Oregon makes another visit to Oahu to take on the Warriors in another four-game set. This should be an evenly matched series, as the two teams finished with nearly identical records last year (UO’s 33 wins to Hawaii’s 34).

OSU takes on UCSB and the Gauchos’ new head coach, former Beaver pitcher and Duck pitching coach Andrew Checketts. Expect the Beavers to take advantage of a .500 team (2011) under a new coach, but also look for some unpredictability as Coach Casey throws some of those young untested arms out there.

Maryland looks like an upset over UCLA waiting to happen. Granted the Terrapins are not a good team; but UCLA has some question marks in my mind and could overlook their opening weekend opponent. Even with the loss of their dual aces from last year, the Bruins should manhandle Maryland. But....

In any of the last four years, a Wazzu trip to SEC land would be a major series to look forward to, but the Cougars this year look weaker than any Wazzu team over that period, even last year’s disappointing 26-28 squad. Mississippi State has not been as good the last couple years either, but at a preseason #34, they’ll still have quite an edge over the Cougars. Plus they’ll be playing in front of a home crowd that might look like double the entire population of Pullman to the Coug squad. Wazzu should be content with a single win or a couple of close games.

The Atlantic Sun’s Jacksonville had a better record (37-24) last year than the Trojans (25-31), but their SOS (124) was quite a bit lower than USC’s (4), so they were ranked a dozen ISR slots lower than USC. That said, this should be a pretty good series. Expect continued improvement from the Trojans up until their signature series against the Tar Heels in week 3.

If you look at last year’s ISRs for Washington and SD State (SDSU four spots higher than UW), this looks like another close matchup on paper. Despite the fact that UW had the poorer record (17-37 vs. 22-36), this series could set the tone for the Huskies. A surprising series win might signal that UW’s recent changes have moved the program in the right direction. A series loss could mean another long season for the Huskies, or at least the need to still rebuild.

Cal gets to practice on the Pacific Tigers to open the season. I know they went to Omaha last year and everyone is predicting great things this year for them. I’m not on that bandwagon. If they don’t make Pacific look like last year’s 17-37 team by sweeping them at home, let’s hold off on claiming top-tier status for the Bears.

UC Davis was a pretty good team not too long ago, but they finished 18 games under .500 last year (18-36) and will probably get spanked by Pac-12 newcomer Utah.

That brings us to the two slaughter series. The desert boys of Arizona State and Arizona invite the near-Canadians of Western Michigan and North Dakota State to thaw for a few days before they get barbecued and devoured. WMU finished 2011 with an ISR of #192; NDSU finished #241. (Side note: NDSU won last year’s Division 1 FCS national championship.)

Eleven series, wow. This illustrates the difficulty of tracking and scoring these nonconference weeks. Note that three of these series are four-game affairs; for scoring purposes, the fourth game does not count. Although you are welcome to speculate on the fourth game, be sure to call your three-game predictions for scoring purposes.

Also note that these preseason affairs will be for “fun” as I am not entirely sure I will even be tabulating scores. It takes some time doing all the setup, and, well...we’ll see....

The reminders:
  • Vote for the team you expect to win and whether the results will be 3-0 or 2-1.
  • Pick teams in the exact order posted. This makes it easier for me to tabulate.
  • Use the team abbreviations whenever possible. (Again, helps me. ;-)
  • You can change your picks up until first pitch of the first game.
  • There are no prizes. We play for glory.
  • Points are awarded in the following manner:

Pick . . Result . . Pts.
3-0 . . . 3-0 . . . . 6
. . . . . . 2-1 . . . . 3
. . . . . . 1-2 . . . . 1
. . . . . . 0-3 . . . . 0

2-1 . . . 3-0 . . . . 3
. . . . . . 2-1 . . . . 4
. . . . . . 1-2 . . . . 2
. . . . . . 0-3 . . . . 1

This week's games
  • #11 Vanderbilt at #4 Stanford
  • Oregon at Hawaii (4)
  • #22 Oregon State at UC Santa Barbara (4)
  • Maryland at #20 UCLA
  • Washington State at #34 Mississippi State
  • Jacksonville at Southern California
  • Washington at San Diego State
  • Pacific at California
  • Utah at UC Davis (4)
  • Western Michigan at #15 Arizona State
  • North Dakota State at #18 Arizona
0 permalink
2/12/2012 11:32:38 PM

ConnorOSU
ConnorOSU
Posts: 127
Stan 2-1 (Should be a great series, Stanford's strong pitching pulls through on Sunday.)

UH 2-1

OSU 2-1 (If the Beavers were at full strength it would be an easy sweep, but with Fry doubtful and Duke, Gorton, and Gordon all out, UCSB should be able to win one.)

UCLA 2-1 (An interesting series; Gonna take Maryland to steal a game.)

MSU 1-2

USC 2-1

SDSU 2-1

Cal 3-0

Utah 2-1

ASU 3-0 (The Devils always seem to lose one of these games, but I'll go with the safer pick.)

Ariz 3-0
0 permalink
2/13/2012 12:29:43 PM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1045
Hay DM, ya came out of hybernation with a bang. Great job!! FYI a Razorback friend of mine sent me this photo today of Baum....and yes, they do open up at home this weekend.
Fork Off


--
Go Devils !!
Fork Off
0 permalink
2/13/2012 9:05:52 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1218
Connor,

What's up with Fry? I thought this was going to be his intro weekend?
0 permalink
2/13/2012 11:31:59 PM

ConnorOSU
ConnorOSU
Posts: 127
Doubtful with stiffness in his back.
0 permalink
2/14/2012 2:25:53 AM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
Stan 2-1
Haw 2-1 +1
OSU 2-1 +1
UCLA 3-0
MSU 2-1
USC 2-1
SDSU 2-1
Cal 2-1
UC Davis 2-1 +1
ASU 3-0
UA 3-0
edited by OpihiMan on 2/15/2012
0 permalink
2/14/2012 3:04:50 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1218
Alrighty then, here we go:

Stan 3-0
Haw 3-0 -1
OSU 3-0 -1
UCLA 3-0
MSU 2-1
USC 3-0
SDST 2-1
Cal 3-0
Utah 3-0 -1
ASU 3-0
AZ 3-0

Damn this exciting.

GO BEAVS
edited by Florida Beaver on 2/14/2012
edited by Florida Beaver on 2/15/2012
0 permalink
2/14/2012 8:16:34 AM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1045
STAN 2-1
HU 2-1
OSU 2-1
UCLA 3-0
MSU 3-0
USC 3-0
SDSU 2-1
CAL 3-0
UCD 2-1
ASU 3-0
UA 3-0
Go Devils
Fork Off

--
Go Devils !!
Fork Off
0 permalink
2/14/2012 9:32:28 AM

FullertonBaseballFan
FullertonBaseballFan
Posts: 146
STAN 2-1
ASU BREAKS OUT THE BROOMS
U OF A, BROOMS
UCLA, BROOMS
OSU 3-1
CAL, BROOMS
MSU 2-1
USC 2-1
OR/HI SPLIT
UT/UCD SPLIT
SDSU 2-1
0 permalink
2/14/2012 12:34:26 PM

WildCard85
WildCard85
Posts: 78
Here we go :
Stan 3-0 (expect the Card to put up lots of runs this weekend)
Haw 2-1
OSU 2-1
UCLA 2-1
WSU 2-1
USC 2-1
Wash 2-1
Cal 2-1
Utah 2-1
ASU 3-0
Ariz 3-0
0 permalink
2/14/2012 3:17:10 PM

BeaverBeliever20
BeaverBeliever20
Posts: 129
Stan 2-1
UO 2-1 -1
OSU 3-0 +1
UCLA 2-1
MSU 2-1
USC 3-0
SDSU 2-1
Cal 3-0
Utah 2-1 +1
ASU 3-0
UA 3-0
edited by BeaverBeliever20 on 2/17/2012
edited by BeaverBeliever20 on 2/17/2012
0 permalink
2/14/2012 4:55:11 PM

MostUnknown
MostUnknown
Posts: 156
Stan 2-1
Haw 2-1+1
OSU 3-0+1
UCLA 2-1
Miss St 2-1
USC 3-0
SDSU 2-1
Cal 3-0
Utah 2-1-1
ASU 2-1
UofA 3-0

These first few weeks of picks could get ugly for me.
edited by MostUnknown on 2/15/2012
edited by MostUnknown on 2/15/2012
0 permalink
2/14/2012 9:10:16 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
FYI...Utah, Oregon, Oregon State are all 4 game series...may want to adjust some of your picks (some of you)
0 permalink
2/14/2012 10:51:16 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
OpihiMan wrote:
FYI...Utah, Oregon, Oregon State are all 4 game series...may want to adjust some of your picks (some of you)

Opihi, you are right, of course, but unfortunately, you are wrong too. My instruction (as I feared) got a little hidden in that dissertation. But tracking and scoring 4-game series doesn't work for my system, so I only count the FIRST THREE GAMES.

This is how we should probably do them henceforth:
  • OSU 2-1 +1
  • OSU 2-1 -1
  • OSU 3-0 +1
  • OSU 3-0 -1
It doesn't matter if you pick a team to go 4-0, but that is the only scenario. If you think a team playing a 4-game series is going to lose one game, you need to specify whether it is (or isn't) the fourth game. Otherwise, I have to assume you got it WRONG.
0 permalink
2/14/2012 11:15:19 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1218
DM,

So far a good amount of folks for week one. Good hopes for the year here.

Fullerton!!!

Pick in the order DM posts the games. It makes it so much easier for DM to score the picks. (Read the directions. Sheesh. Leave it to a California fan to not do that)
edited by Florida Beaver on 2/14/2012
0 permalink
2/15/2012 3:16:28 AM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
Dodger Matt wrote:
OpihiMan wrote:
FYI...Utah, Oregon, Oregon State are all 4 game series...may want to adjust some of your picks (some of you)

Opihi, you are right, of course, but unfortunately, you are wrong too. My instruction (as I feared) got a little hidden in that dissertation. But tracking and scoring 4-game series doesn't work for my system, so I only count the FIRST THREE GAMES.

This is how we should probably do them henceforth:
  • OSU 2-1 +1
  • OSU 2-1 -1
  • OSU 3-0 +1
  • OSU 3-0 -1
It doesn't matter if you pick a team to go 4-0, but that is the only scenario. If you think a team playing a 4-game series is going to lose one game, you need to specify whether it is (or isn't) the fourth game. Otherwise, I have to assume you got it WRONG.



I see it now, but yeah it was kinda jumbled in there.
0 permalink
2/15/2012 8:49:48 AM

CaughtBySparky
CaughtBySparky
Posts: 18
Stan 2-1
Haw 2-1
OSU 3-0
UCLA 3-0
MSU 2-1
USC 3-0
SDST 2-1
Cal 3-0
Utah 2-1
ASU 3-0
AZ 3-0
edited by CaughtBySparky on 2/15/2012
0 permalink
2/15/2012 7:48:32 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
hello PAC 12ers!!
its good to be back after a long offseason!
here goes
Stan 2-1
UO 2-1
OSU 3-0
UCLA 2-1
MSU 3-0
USC 2-1
SDST 2-1
Cal 2-1
UCD 3-0
ASU 3-0
Ariz 3-0
its going to be an exciting year in the pac. welcome to any mountain brethren who join us here and good luck to all. but most important GO BEAVS!!!

--
GO BEAVS!
0 permalink
2/16/2012 6:55:01 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
stan 3-0
ou 2-1
osu 2-1
ucla 3-0
Msu 2-1
usc 2-1
sdst 2-1
cal 3-0
ut 3-0
asu 3-0
az-3-0
who knows about the ducks this year.. hopefully our bats are up. Loss of CJ and Sabol could hurt.
edited by Riverduck on 2/16/2012
edited by Riverduck on 2/16/2012
+1 permalink
2/16/2012 7:52:12 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2424
Wha-ppened to thorgreen's picks? Did he morph into RiverDuck?

I have everyone entered. Only TWO problems: BeaverBeliever20 and FullertonBaseballFan, you need to give me 2-1 or 3-0 picks for the four-game series.
0 permalink
pages: 1 2 3 | show rated messages only | you must log in at the top of the page to post

Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 Predictions: Week 1 (plus overview BONUS!)





Powered by AspNetForum 6.9.9.0 © 2006-2010 Jitbit Software