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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 Predictions: Week 5

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3/13/2012 7:34:41 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Week 5

Let me start with a note on how conference play scoring will be handled. Because we have an odd number of teams in the conference now and most weeks will have six series (one a nonconference affair), all weekly scores will be averaged to come out with a six-series average. That means when we have only five series (like this week and a couple others), each series will count 6/5 (or 120%).

First week of conference play features two top-25 matchups and three other series with a ranked team. Stanford does not play this weekend.

This week's games
  • #12 ASU (10-4) at #14 UCLA (12-3)
  • #19 OSU (11-5) at #21 Cal (11-3)
  • #20 Ore (12-3) at UW (10-5)
  • WSU (8-5) at #9 Ariz (13-2)
  • Utah (4-11) at #27 USC (12-3)
Week 5 Series
  • The top series has the 12th ranked Sun Devils visiting UCLA. Both teams are doing well and coming off series wins, but UCLA’s was more impressive: a road sweep of a nationally ranked SEC team. Should be a great series, but you have to give a slight edge to the home team.
  • Another pretty good and even matchup has the Beavers visiting Berkeley. Oregon State is on a mild upswing, having finished with the best record at the Nike College Showcase this weekend with three wins over Oklahoma, Illinois, and West Virginia. OSU has shown some surprisingly good offense coupled with a strengthening starting pitching squad. Cal split 2-2 with a middling Nebraska team, winning one of those two games in extra innings and getting outscored 29-25.
  • Despite losing twice this last weekend, Oregon still has the third best record in the conference. The Ducks travel to Seattle to battle the Huskies, who dropped two to Cal Poly. The Ducks are clear favorites, but don’t misunderestimate [sic] Husky antipathy toward the Mallards. UW plays fellow PNW teams tough, even when they suck, and this year’s UW squad is moving upward from suckiness to not-so-sucky. So if you’re a Ducky it would be unlucky to get stuck by the not-so-sucky Huskies.
  • Wazzu faced an unexpectedly tough opponent in UNLV last week, in which all three games were decided by one run, and the Cougs finished on the losing end of those games twice. They have the misfortune of opening conference play in Tucson against the 9th ranked Wildcats, who are tied with Stanford for the conference’s best record. Granted, Arizona has played an incredibly weak schedule, but they are at home.
  • Utah gets its first taste of Pac-12 play as an official member, and boy will they be happy to make it close in one of those games against the Trojans, who will probably be sitting at the top of the conference standings after this week.
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3/13/2012 10:58:27 PM

ConnorOSU
ConnorOSU
Posts: 127
UCLA 2-1
OSU 2-1
Ore 3-0
Ariz 3-0
USC 3-0
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3/14/2012 12:03:45 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1217
Wow! Some really hard picks in a few of these games. Gonna go against conventional wisdom in a few just because of some gut feelings. So either my gut feelings are right, or it was some bad pizza I ate.

ASU 2-1
OSU 2-1
UW 2-1
Ariz 3-0
USC 3-0


GO BEAVS
edited by Florida Beaver on 3/14/2012
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3/14/2012 1:27:10 AM

BeaverBeliever20
BeaverBeliever20
Posts: 129
UCLA 2-1
OSU 3-0
UO 2-1
AZ 2-1
USC 3-0
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3/14/2012 8:57:12 AM

FullertonBaseballFan
FullertonBaseballFan
Posts: 146
UCLA 2-1
OSU 2-1
UO 2-1
AZ 2-1
USC 3-0
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3/14/2012 10:33:30 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Ucla 2-1
Cal 3-0
Uo 3-0
AZ 2-1
USC 2-1
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3/14/2012 10:48:19 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Dodger Matt wrote:
Week 5

Let me start with a note on how conference play scoring will be handled. Because we have an odd number of teams in the conference now and most weeks will have six series (one a nonconference affair), all weekly scores will be averaged to come out with a six-series average. That means when we have only five series (like this week and a couple others), each series will count 6/5 (or 120%).

First week of conference play features two top-25 matchups and three other series with a ranked team. Stanford does not play this weekend.

This week's games
  • #12 ASU (10-4) at #14 UCLA (12-3)
  • #19 OSU (11-5) at #21 Cal (11-3)
  • #20 Ore (12-3) at UW (10-5)
  • WSU (8-5) at #9 Ariz (13-2)
  • Utah (4-11) at #27 USC (12-3)
Week 5 Series
  • The top series has the 12th ranked Sun Devils visiting UCLA. Both teams are doing well and coming off series wins, but UCLA’s was more impressive: a road sweep of a nationally ranked SEC team. Should be a great series, but you have to give a slight edge to the home team.
  • Another pretty good and even matchup has the Beavers visiting Berkeley. Oregon State is on a mild upswing, having finished with the best record at the Nike College Showcase this weekend with three wins over Oklahoma, Illinois, and West Virginia. OSU has shown some surprisingly good offense coupled with a strengthening starting pitching squad. Cal split 2-2 with a middling Nebraska team, winning one of those two games in extra innings and getting outscored 29-25.
  • Despite losing twice this last weekend, Oregon still has the third best record in the conference. The Ducks travel to Seattle to battle the Huskies, who dropped two to Cal Poly. The Ducks are clear favorites, but don’t misunderestimate [sic] Husky antipathy toward the Mallards. UW plays fellow PNW teams tough, even when they suck, and this year’s UW squad is moving upward from suckiness to not-so-sucky. So if you’re a Ducky it would be unlucky to get stuck by the not-so-sucky Huskies.
  • Wazzu faced an unexpectedly tough opponent in UNLV last week, in which all three games were decided by one run, and the Cougs finished on the losing end of those games twice. They have the misfortune of opening conference play in Tucson against the 9th ranked Wildcats, who are tied with Stanford for the conference’s best record. Granted, Arizona has played an incredibly weak schedule, but they are at home.
  • Utah gets its first taste of Pac-12 play as an official member, and boy will they be happy to make it close in one of those games against the Trojans, who will probably be sitting at the top of the conference standings after this week.

Where are you getting your rankings? Last I checked OSU is barely in the top 25-30. Their Current RPI is 81, with Oregon at a stealth 15? Hmm. ISR is 38 and 7 respectively. Just sayin. This may reflect last weeks stats, but I looked this morning. But then again USC is 14 in RPI.. awfully early I know, but interesting.
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3/14/2012 1:56:19 PM

WildCard85
WildCard85
Posts: 78
UCLA 2-1
Cal 2-1
UO 2-1
UA 2-1
USC 3-0
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3/14/2012 2:53:14 PM

Islander
Islander
Posts: 2
ASU 2-1
OSU 2-1
Ore 2-1
Ariz 2-1
USC 3-0
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3/14/2012 3:30:26 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
ASU 2-1 i honestly think ASU is the best/second best team in the conference with stan and while i think all 3 games are close ones edge goes to the devils
OSU 2-1 Wetzler moves to 4-0 on friday and who knows what happens from there, but gotta go with the beavs!
Ore 2-1 sorry fuskies duckies have your number
Ariz 2-1 almost went with sweep but gonna give cougs benefit of the doubt here
USC 3-0 welcome to the big time Utah

--
GO BEAVS!
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3/14/2012 6:37:10 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Riverduck wrote:

Where are you getting your rankings? Last I checked OSU is barely in the top 25-30. Their Current RPI is 81, with Oregon at a stealth 15? Hmm. ISR is 38 and 7 respectively. Just sayin. This may reflect last weeks stats, but I looked this morning. But then again USC is 14 in RPI.. awfully early I know, but interesting.

I change how I describe the teams depending on what I think is most relevant each week. ISRs I think just came out this week, and frankly, this early in the season, I don't think they're that accurate. As for Rat's Patootie Index, nobody on a Pac-12 thread should even care. Yeah, Oregon's RPI is in the top ten because they swept an SEC team, and the Rat's Patootie adds something like ten double-golden-wonkas to your score for every SEC team you beat, so don't get too excited about that.

For this week, all I did was grab the D1baseball.com rankings listed with the schedule, and I believe they grab from them the NCBWA poll. Typically a fair poll, IMNSHO. For me, it's not so much what that number is; it's more wwhat that number is in relation to your opponent. So a #19 OSU at #21 Cal and a #12 ASU at #14 UCLA shows a couple of even series. If you check the ISRs, even this early, OSU and Cal are 39/38: Pretty darn close. ASU and UCLA are 34/5: Not so close. But I don't believe there is that big a gap between those two teams. Likewise Oregon (7) and Washington (66). That will be a much closer series than that spread would indicate.
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3/14/2012 7:38:49 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
From this week's preview (http://www.osubeavers.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/031412aab.html) of the OSU-Cal series. All I did was add and "s" and a serial comma (hate AP style). Does this make you smile?

Tyler Smith Likes Playing Cal
That's an easy way of putting it. The junior infielder is 7-for-14 lifetime against the Golden Beavers and has two doubles, two RBIs, and two walks against California.
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3/14/2012 10:19:21 PM

MostUnknown
MostUnknown
Posts: 156
UCLA 2-1
Cal 2-1
Ore 2-1
UofA 2-1
SC 3-0
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3/14/2012 11:17:28 PM

CaughtBySparky
CaughtBySparky
Posts: 18
ASU 2-1
OSU 2-1
Ore 2-1
Ariz 2-1
USC 3-0

Hoping to carry the momentum into conference play.
edited by CaughtBySparky on 3/14/2012
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3/15/2012 12:11:03 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Dodger Matt wrote:
Riverduck wrote:

Where are you getting your rankings? Last I checked OSU is barely in the top 25-30. Their Current RPI is 81, with Oregon at a stealth 15? Hmm. ISR is 38 and 7 respectively. Just sayin. This may reflect last weeks stats, but I looked this morning. But then again USC is 14 in RPI.. awfully early I know, but interesting.

I change how I describe the teams depending on what I think is most relevant each week. ISRs I think just came out this week, and frankly, this early in the season, I don't think they're that accurate. As for Rat's Patootie Index, nobody on a Pac-12 thread should even care. Yeah, Oregon's RPI is in the top ten because they swept an SEC team, and the Rat's Patootie adds something like ten double-golden-wonkas to your score for every SEC team you beat, so don't get too excited about that.

For this week, all I did was grab the D1baseball.com rankings listed with the schedule, and I believe they grab from them the NCBWA poll. Typically a fair poll, IMNSHO. For me, it's not so much what that number is; it's more wwhat that number is in relation to your opponent. So a #19 OSU at #21 Cal and a #12 ASU at #14 UCLA shows a couple of even series. If you check the ISRs, even this early, OSU and Cal are 39/38: Pretty darn close. ASU and UCLA are 34/5: Not so close. But I don't believe there is that big a gap between those two teams. Likewise Oregon (7) and Washington (66). That will be a much closer series than that spread would indicate.


Yeah- I see the d1 rankings based of that poll. I always thought that one was always the wonkiest of the bunch in the d1 drop down. I know rankings mean nothing.. but for a possible NCAA chance, it is always advisable to win as many non conference games to start league play. I am flat clueless own how this pac season is going to go. The ducks first succesful year was in this years cycle, so it will be interesting to see how the Stanford/ASU/OSU/Ucla series will go.
Do you think that Vandy will pull out of their funk and win a series vs FL? lol
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3/15/2012 1:11:13 AM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
ASU 2-1
OSU 2-1
UW 2-1
Ariz 3-0
USC 3-0
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3/15/2012 8:05:19 AM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1044
UCLA 2-1
CAL 2-1
Oregon 2-1
UA 3-0
USC 3-0

--
Go Devils !!
Fork Off
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3/15/2012 10:20:04 AM

cswanson2k7
cswanson2k7
Posts: 16
UCLA 2-1
Oregon State 2-1
Oregon 2-1
Arizona 3-0
USC 3-0
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3/15/2012 1:16:17 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1460
[font=Helvetica, arial]ASU 2-1[/font]
[font=Helvetica, arial]OSU 2-1[/font]
[font=Helvetica, arial]UO 2-1[/font]
[font=Helvetica, arial]Ariz 2-1[/font]
[font=Helvetica, arial]USC 3-0[/font]
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3/15/2012 10:28:36 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Bob, we need to figure out what you're doing to get that formatting in your posts. Are you copying from a table, or from another program?

Just a note: Because of expected inclement weather, the Golden Beavers will take on Cal at noon Friday, the first official Pac-12 baseball game ever. So if you haven't posted your picks by then, you're outa luck this week.

Here are my picks.
  • UCLA 2-1
  • OSU 2-1
  • Ore 2-1
  • Ariz 2-1
  • USC 3-0
Also, don't be spooked by the low scores this week. (Our scores, not the baseball teams'.) We have half as many series as we did for the the preseason predictions, and conference play usually involves far fewer sweeps. The absolute maximum possible for six series--36 pts.--is going to be awfully hard to come by. Expect prediction scores in the low to mid-20s. I'll probably post pick analyses sometime tomorrow morning.

Also remember that raw scores will be adjusted by 1.2 points this week to account for 5 series instead of 6.

Good luck to all!
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