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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Predict who will win the Pac

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4/8/2012 9:59:47 AM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1035
We are almost half way through Pac Play. The next couple of weeks pair some of the current "top tier" teams and things will get VERY interesting. This is where we are now:

Arizona 9-3
UCLA 8-4
Oregon 8-4
Oregon State 6-6
ASU 6-6
Stanford 4-5
USC 5-6 (PPD game with Washington in May)
Washington 4-5 (PPD game with USC in May)
Washington State 3-5
Utah 4-8
Cal 2-7

The Wildcats have scratched their way to the top. Are their claws strong enough to hang on? Will the defending Pac Champs-UCLA go back to back? How about them Ducks. Are they really that good or will they get shot down? ASU has only one thing to play for this season...the Pac Crown. Will they be like the Phoenix and come back and burn everyone? Will Stanford live up to the pre-season hype? Will the Beavers bite everyone in the butt & come out smiling? How about the current bottom dweller Cal who last year was a #3 regional seed and was the only Pac team to Pac their bags for a trip to Omaha? Will Utah be a spoiler for the Pac Elite? They have only been swept once in Pac play, won their series with USC, and are sending a message to the Pac that they are not to be taken for granted. Will the two Washingtom teams be the dark horses no one saw coming?

Make your picks with your mind, not your hearts.

My Pick: UA. I think they are for real.
edited by ASU74 on 4/8/2012
edited by ASU74 on 4/8/2012

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4/8/2012 12:25:34 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Kinda tough at this point, but here's how I look at it. Taking the top six teams--Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, OSU, ASU, and Stanford--and comparing their records against each other, we see this (teams already played in parentheses):
  • Arizona 5-1 (Stanford, OSU)
  • Oregon 5-1 (ASU, UCLA)
  • UCLA 3-3 (Oregon, ASU)
  • ASU 4-5 (UCLA, Oregon, OSU)
  • Oregon State 1-5 (Arizona, ASU)
  • Stanford 0-3 (Arizona)
Looking at it this way, Arizona and Oregon have the inside track, and OSU and Stanford will have to turn things around to contend. Upcoming schedule:

  • Arizona: UCLA, Oregon, ASU
  • Oregon: @Arizona, @Stanford, @OSU
  • UCLA: @Arizona, @OSU, Stanford
  • ASU: @Stanford, @Arizona
  • Oregon State: UCLA, Stanford, Oregon
  • Stanford: Oregon, ASU, @UCLA, @OSU
Arizona has the easiest path going forward with all three remaining opponents at home, and Oregon has all three on the road. Every team (except rivalless Utah) plays its rivalry game the last weekend, and the only teams on this list that have rivals also on the list are are Arizona-ASU and Oregon-OSU. Arizona plays it at home, albeit against a team that will have nothing after that to play for, so add that extra incentive for ASU into the mix. But Oregon plays the Civil War in Corvallis, against a team they swept at home last year (and in the process knocked them out of national seed territory). I see AZ staying at or near the top, and Oregon dropping.

UCLA and ASU play the majority of their remaining games on the road. I don't see either team making a move upward. I think both will be around the .500 mark against these teams when all is said and done.
I see the greatest probability of upward movement from OSU and Stanford. OSU has all three remaining series at home. And I don't think anybody expects Stanford to do as poorly as they have so far in conference. Can either team make up the ground they've lost? OSU could move a couple slots upward, but probably not all the way up. Stanford probably has the most upward potential.
If I were to guess right now, I'd say the top six will look something like this:
  • Arizona
  • Stanford
  • UCLA
  • Oregon State
  • Oregon
  • Arizona State
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4/8/2012 8:00:37 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
I think the ducks will beat stanford at home (again) and lose at AZ and OSU. The difference will be WSU, USC, Cal. If we lose two to AZ, Two to OSU, and win 2 versus WSU, USC, Cal, we are at the worst looking at 11 losses in league, which is still pretty damn good IMO. But this is all spectulative, and I see the Bruins coming into OSU with all cylinders firing. I might have to predict another 0-3 for the beavs. The beavs are not playing bad, but may really get into a serious slump after UCLA. How they bounce back from that is the million dollar question.
1.UCLA
2.ASU
3.AZ
4.OR
5.Stan
8.Beavers.. I think they may struggle to get over .500 in league.
edited by Riverduck on 4/8/2012
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4/8/2012 9:01:30 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
0% chance Oregon wins 2 out of these 3 series...@Arizona, @Stanford, @OSU...heck 1 would be impressive.
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4/8/2012 11:04:38 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Uh, we just swept a team that swept you.. and won a series on the road to a top 5 team in the nation.. I think 1 out of three is probable, and 2 out of three is in reach. It is the other teams I am worried about.
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4/9/2012 12:07:58 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7540
I'll go with UCLA in a very very tight race!

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Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/9/2012 12:56:47 AM

ConnorOSU
ConnorOSU
Posts: 127
Upper half:

Arizona
Oregon
UCLA
Arizona State
Oregon State
Stanford
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4/9/2012 12:59:33 AM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
RD...You swept at home, we got swept on the road, compare upcoming schedules and look at who you play on the road...I stand by my comment. I'll take UCLA followed by Arizona.
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4/9/2012 11:33:14 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
OM- I think I picked UCLA as well. I only stated that we should win one series, and if you look at historical numbers going back a few years, most of our best series wins have been as visitors. (And california, I might ad.) Beating AZ would be a breakthrough for our programs.. can we do it? On paper, probably not, but you never know. I am actually more worried about the upcoming 5 games, then I was last week. I just don't think we have the pitching depth to play more than two or three games per week. That will hurt us in the long run. As for OSU, I don't have a clue. They usually win regardless of year/players, so maybe I was a bit harsh to label them so far down. But to say zero chance? Wait until they at least play the games lol. I still have a chance that the Ducks will be pac champions.. but with each series loss, that chance goes down. Right now if we were to be tied with UCLA, we would win the tie breaker. Not too many teams can say that right now. You guys have a chance this week. It would be ironic if you swept, beat the bruins, because that would get you out of a pretty good funk, whereas in 10, UCLA series was when everything went downhill for awhile.
edited by Riverduck on 4/9/2012
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4/9/2012 7:12:49 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
RD,

You're funny. "Historical numbers going back a few years"? You only go back a few years! I guess, technically speaking, history is what has passed, but I think you are pushing the envelope on the definition of "history".

I'd say, looking at the Oregon Ducks three years of play (I am not including this year, which is the "present" year, hence it is not "history" yet) with a overall record of 87-92, and a conference record of 28-40, historically, you suck.

If history is written by the victors, historically speaking, the Ducks have 2 years of overall history, and no years of conference history.

Of course, this is just the opinion of this Beaver about the ducks.

Jus' sayin.
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4/9/2012 7:14:47 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
BTW RD,

congrats on P12 player and pitcher of the week
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4/9/2012 7:45:11 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Florida Beaver wrote:
I'd say, looking at the Oregon Ducks three years of play (I am not including this year, which is the "present" year, hence it is not "history" yet) with a overall record of 87-92, and a conference record of 28-40, historically, you suck.


This was funny.
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4/10/2012 7:58:16 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Florida Beaver wrote:
RD,

You're funny. "Historical numbers going back a few years"? You only go back a few years! I guess, technically speaking, history is what has passed, but I think you are pushing the envelope on the definition of "history".

I'd say, looking at the Oregon Ducks three years of play (I am not including this year, which is the "present" year, hence it is not "history" yet) with a overall record of 87-92, and a conference record of 28-40, historically, you suck.

If history is written by the victors, historically speaking, the Ducks have 2 years of overall history, and no years of conference history.

Of course, this is just the opinion of this Beaver about the ducks.

Jus' sayin.

Yeah, you are right on all accounts, but I was really meaning as far back as I could remember.. which is good for me since my long term memory is shot. Hell, I guess my short term memory is gone as well. What happened last week? lol. So I guess i don't have to worry about the ducks tanking with all this success, since they have no history.. Did you catch the baseball america write up? That was heart warming.
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4/10/2012 1:05:23 PM

BB41751
BB41751
Posts: 14
Stanford
ASU
UCLA
UA
UW
USC
OSU
UO
WSU
CAL
UT



Stan and ASU are within percentage points of each other. I think it could go either way.
UCLA is about 10% behind those 2. They stroke the ball well but in the end I think they will give up to many runs to be competitive.
UA is about 15-20% behind. Hit well but don’t think they have the pitching.
Don’t see any other team making any kind of challenge for the top.
UW my surprise team
SC another surprise team. UW and USC both pitch surprising well
OSU hit better than they usually do but can’t get out of their own way when it comes to pitching and defense. Kind of uncharacteristic for them
If UO could hit, they could challenge.
Cal, another surprise team but in a different kind of way given the run they made last year and the number of returners they had.
UT. They are finding out what it takes to compete at this level.
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4/10/2012 3:56:25 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Florida Beaver wrote:
RD,

You're funny. "Historical numbers going back a few years"? You only go back a few years! I guess, technically speaking, history is what has passed, but I think you are pushing the envelope on the definition of "history".

I'd say, looking at the Oregon Ducks three years of play (I am not including this year, which is the "present" year, hence it is not "history" yet) with a overall record of 87-92, and a conference record of 28-40, historically, you suck.

If history is written by the victors, historically speaking, the Ducks have 2 years of overall history, and no years of conference history.

Of course, this is just the opinion of this Beaver about the ducks.

Jus' sayin.
Yeah, the best history we have is shutting you guys out last year to deny beavs the pac title... lol. Now that really sucked! Especially from a team that "sucks" Got to love K's regional projection for the ducks. Now that does not "suck"
edited by Riverduck on 4/10/2012
edited by Riverduck on 4/10/2012
edited by Riverduck on 4/10/2012
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4/10/2012 11:36:58 PM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
Uh-huh RD. I hear ya about the projection.....But you still have 18 conference games to play with series at Stanford, Arizona and Oregon State. So go ahead and count your ducks before they hatch. I see y'all at 14-16 or 15-15 for the conference. Not enough for a regional.

And yeah, last year sucked losing to you....but you know what makes up for it? Those 2 CWS trophies sitting in the display case at OSU.

How many CWS baseball trophy you have?

WHAT?

I CAN"T HEAR YOU RD!

HOW MANY DID YOU SAY?

NONE?

Yeah, that what I thought I heard you say.
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4/10/2012 11:45:55 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
Kneel!Florida Beaver wrote:
Uh-huh RD. I hear ya about the projection.....But you still have 18 conference games to play with series at Stanford, Arizona and Oregon State. So go ahead and count your ducks before they hatch. I see y'all at 14-16 or 15-15 for the conference. Not enough for a regional.

And yeah, last year sucked losing to you....but you know what makes up for it? Those 2 CWS trophies sitting in the display case at OSU.

How many CWS baseball trophy you have?

WHAT?

I CAN"T HEAR YOU RD!

HOW MANY DID YOU SAY?

NONE?

Yeah, that what I thought I heard you say.
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4/11/2012 12:27:32 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
Man I love my beaver(s)
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4/11/2012 8:04:43 AM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Florida Beaver wrote:
Uh-huh RD. I hear ya about the projection.....But you still have 18 conference games to play with series at Stanford, Arizona and Oregon State. So go ahead and count your ducks before they hatch. I see y'all at 14-16 or 15-15 for the conference. Not enough for a regional.

And yeah, last year sucked losing to you....but you know what makes up for it? Those 2 CWS trophies sitting in the display case at OSU.

How many CWS baseball trophy you have?

WHAT?

I CAN"T HEAR YOU RD!

HOW MANY DID YOU SAY?

NONE?

Yeah, that what I thought I heard you say.
You know how many times I have heard that line.. nothing to see, please move along. Those trophies collecting dust will do nothing to help you win games NOW.. Maybe in recruiting, but after the way your team has been playing, I would be the one worrying about making a regional. If we split the rest of our games we still end up at 17-13.. And for the record I have never stated that we were a shoo- in for a regional, I was only commenting on the recent 64 projection on this site. Kendall seems to know what he is talking about, so enough said.
edited by Riverduck on 4/11/2012
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4/11/2012 10:40:09 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
RD,

Yeppers. No doubt Kendall has a foot up on us "normal" folk. But the 64 projections have about as much basis in reality that the pre-season polls have. The projections change weekly and if a particular team goes cold, they can be gone in a few weeks. Case in point, Kendall's first 64 projection 2 weeks ago had Oregon State hosting a regional. Not so now. See what I mean?
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