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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » PG 64: Projecting the NCAA field (4.10) -- ASK Q'S

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4/10/2012 11:56:17 AM

Kendall
Kendall
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Here are the latest projections:

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6853

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/10/2012 1:46:25 PM

hogfan4life
hogfan4life
Posts: 305
I'm a little confused Kendall. Hogs were a host last week, won 2 out of 3 this past weekend. Ole Miss lost 2 out of 3 this weekend an is still projected to host. Hogs are 8th in your rankings verse 19 for Ole Miss. You would think after being a host after the LSU sweep we would stay after LSU then beat Florida, not fall lower in the projections.
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4/10/2012 2:45:55 PM

shoelessT
shoelessT
Posts: 118
I'm slightly confused about Arkansas too. Also I will be pissed if Miami and UF get matched up again in Supers.
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4/10/2012 6:25:44 PM

MetRays
MetRays
Posts: 3
I find it extreme you put a team with a ncaa 15 rpi and ranked from 13-15 in all 4 major polls as a 2 seed against a projected (3) national seed, ie. uf regional with (2) ucf. Do you expect UCF to get worse in the second half?? If not that is simply ridiculous and unfair. I hope you are not consistent with the selection committees thought processes.
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4/10/2012 7:25:55 PM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
MetRays wrote:
I find it extreme you put a team with a ncaa 15 rpi and ranked from 13-15 in all 4 major polls as a 2 seed against a projected (3) national seed, ie. uf regional with (2) ucf. Do you expect UCF to get worse in the second half?? If not that is simply ridiculous and unfair. I hope you are not consistent with the selection committees thought processes.


Because there isn't going to be a fourth host in Florida. UF, FSU, and Miami are easy hosts right now. There won't be a fourth, so UCF is now a #2 seed. After that, you're placed by geography. There is no rhyme or reason to the seeding after the 1 through 8 national seeds.
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4/10/2012 7:56:38 PM

MetRays
MetRays
Posts: 3
MiamiBaseball wrote:
MetRays wrote:
I find it extreme you put a team with a ncaa 15 rpi and ranked from 13-15 in all 4 major polls as a 2 seed against a projected (3) national seed, ie. uf regional with (2) ucf. Do you expect UCF to get worse in the second half?? If not that is simply ridiculous and unfair. I hope you are not consistent with the selection committees thought processes.


Because there isn't going to be a fourth host in Florida. UF, FSU, and Miami are easy hosts right now. There won't be a fourth, so UCF is now a #2 seed. After that, you're placed by geography. There is no rhyme or reason to the seeding after the 1 through 8 national seeds.


Last year Texas had 4 hosts... But its still early and a lot to do if UCF wants to give FL a 4th. Still seems crazy they wouldn't ship UCF to a weaker out-of-state regional or at least place them at the 1 (of 3) non national seed regions in FL. But thank you, your explanation certainly is the only explanation that could makes sense - is what it is. Thanks.
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4/10/2012 8:02:59 PM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Welcome to my world. Last year we had a top 15 RPI on selection day. Not only did we not host, we were sent as the #2 seed against the #2 National seed (UF).
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4/10/2012 8:08:21 PM

MetRays
MetRays
Posts: 3
MiamiBaseball wrote:
Welcome to my world. Last year we had a top 15 RPI on selection day. Not only did we not host, we were sent as the #2 seed against the #2 National seed (UF).


wow. no complaints here anymore. stupid system imo but guess thats the way they do it.......
edited by MetRays on 4/10/2012
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4/10/2012 8:20:31 PM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
MetRays wrote:
MiamiBaseball wrote:
Welcome to my world. Last year we had a top 15 RPI on selection day. Not only did we not host, we were sent as the #2 seed against the #2 National seed (UF).


wow. no complaints here anymore. stupid system imo but guess thats the way they do it.......
edited by MetRays on 4/10/2012


Yes, it is a stupid system. Just keep that in mind when Kendall makes his projections. He is just doing what the committee has historically done, which is cram teams into a local tournament no matter how they should be seeded in the big picture.
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4/11/2012 12:50:22 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7540
MetRays wrote:
I find it extreme you put a team with a ncaa 15 rpi and ranked from 13-15 in all 4 major polls as a 2 seed against a projected (3) national seed, ie. uf regional with (2) ucf. Do you expect UCF to get worse in the second half?? If not that is simply ridiculous and unfair. I hope you are not consistent with the selection committees thought processes.


Met,
There's no doubt in my mind UCF is a good team (I saw them against Houston and like them a lot), but that resume of theirs does not warrant a Regional host right now. And the fact of the matters is the State of Florida isn't getting four host sites. Right now, Miami, Florida State and Florida definitely have a leg up. Could that change? Maybe ... but I'm thinking it's doubtful right now.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/11/2012 12:51:36 AM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7540
hogfan4life wrote:
I'm a little confused Kendall. Hogs were a host last week, won 2 out of 3 this past weekend. Ole Miss lost 2 out of 3 this weekend an is still projected to host. Hogs are 8th in your rankings verse 19 for Ole Miss. You would think after being a host after the LSU sweep we would stay after LSU then beat Florida, not fall lower in the projections.


Hog,
That's just the way things shook out this week. Arkansas' resume actually got worse over the weekend, while Ole Miss' stayed pretty much the same. The two teams basically had the same resume give or take a few points here and there, but overall, Ole Miss has played a much together schedule so far this season, hence the difference. Could change, but this week, I'd definitely give the Rebels a slight edge.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/11/2012 6:59:13 AM

MS87
MS87
Posts: 1
Only 1 team from the Asun? You have Stetson just outside of your top 40 and they have an RPI in the mid 50s. You think USF or FAU will see a bid before them?
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4/11/2012 10:44:17 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
MS87 wrote:
Only 1 team from the Asun? You have Stetson just outside of your top 40 and they have an RPI in the mid 50s. You think USF or FAU will see a bid before them?


USF and FAU are in because they are the conference leaders.
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4/11/2012 4:11:10 PM

Rowdy
Rowdy
Posts: 87
Hi Kendall,

What's behind dropping ZONA out of the national seed picture? Weekend rotation is a perfect 8-0 and their offense has produced some of the most consistant hitting in DIV1. I think Andy Lopez accepts the weekday losses as he develpos his pitching.
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4/11/2012 4:21:29 PM

Blindambition25
Blindambition25
Posts: 4
Kendall, no national seed projection for LSU, a sweep at home over the then No. 3 Razorbacks, and a road series win over then No. 1 Gators.... The tigers are playing as well as anyone in the nation, I know it is the halfway point, but I certainly think the tigers have solidified a top 8 ranking at this point. Is there something I am missing?
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4/12/2012 6:52:48 AM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Blindambition25 wrote:
Kendall, no national seed projection for LSU, a sweep at home over the then No. 3 Razorbacks, and a road series win over then No. 1 Gators.... The tigers are playing as well as anyone in the nation, I know it is the halfway point, but I certainly think the tigers have solidified a top 8 ranking at this point. Is there something I am missing?


National seeds aren't handed out based on the last two or three weeks. It's based on the whole season. You can't overlook the series losses to App State and Auburn.
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4/12/2012 4:45:10 PM

Blindambition25
Blindambition25
Posts: 4
Miami- I beleive my question was directed towards kendalls opinion, seeing as how he made the projections, it is his response I care for. But since you answered anyway, I'll ask you this... In your opinion, wouldn't two series wins over top three teams offset two series losses to lesser opponents? keep in mind that auburn was ranked by many outlets as of last week, and app st. Is putting together a solid year themselves. Like I stated In my post, LSU is playing what could arguably be the best baseball in the nation right now. Their 27-7 record and second overall place in the SEC standings should speak volumes about their season's consistency. I challenge you to name 8 teams playing better overall baseball to this point. I can't....
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4/12/2012 6:12:31 PM

MiamiBaseball
MiamiBaseball
Posts: 218
Blindambition25 wrote:
In your opinion, wouldn't two series wins over top three teams offset two series losses to lesser opponents? keep in mind that auburn was ranked by many outlets as of last week, and app st. Is putting together a solid year themselves. Like I stated In my post, LSU is playing what could arguably be the best baseball in the nation right now. Their 27-7 record and second overall place in the SEC standings should speak volumes about their season's consistency. I challenge you to name 8 teams playing better overall baseball to this point. I can't....


Again, the "right now" thing is what is throwing you off. You absolutely have the right to be excited over the way LSU has played over the last two weekends, but this stuff is decided based on the whole season. What's killing LSU right now is those eight games against teams that are 200+ in the RPI. LSU and Kentucky are the only teams in the top 30 that have played 8 teams in the 200+ range. That drags your RPI down.

For example, Baylor has almost the exact same record as LSU, but they are a national seed. Why? Because when LSU was playing Air Force and Alcorn State - two of the worst teams and easiest wins in America - Baylor was sweeping Oral Roberts, who at least has some semblance of talent. Same with FSU and UNC. They don't play those horrid teams that litter LSU's schedule.
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4/12/2012 6:41:49 PM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7540
MS87 wrote:
Only 1 team from the Asun? You have Stetson just outside of your top 40 and they have an RPI in the mid 50s. You think USF or FAU will see a bid before them?


Stetson really messed up earlier in the season with some failed opportunities for marquee wins. With that said, I have a feeling the A-SUN will end up getting two bids before it's all said and done.

USF was our auto bid, while I think FAU definitely would get an at-large bid ahead of Stetson as of right now.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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4/12/2012 6:42:50 PM

Kendall
Kendall
Administrator
Posts: 7540
Rowdy wrote:
Hi Kendall,

What's behind dropping ZONA out of the national seed picture? Weekend rotation is a perfect 8-0 and their offense has produced some of the most consistant hitting in DIV1. I think Andy Lopez accepts the weekday losses as he develpos his pitching.


Rowdy -- Arizona's RPI dropped to 23 after a couple of bad losses last week. No chance a team with an RPI of 23 would get a national seed, hence dropping out of the top eight. If Arizona gets back into the top 16 of the RPI in the next week, we'll more than likely vault them into that top eight again.

--
Kendall Rogers, College Baseball Managing Editor
Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG
Email me: mailto:kendall@perfectgame.org
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