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Home » College Baseball Clubhouse » Pac-12 Predictions: Week 11

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4/24/2012 10:18:40 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Week 11

Five weeks of conference play to go.
  • Stan at UCLA
  • OSU at USC
  • ASU at WSU
  • Cal at Ore
  • UW at Utah
  • East Tennessee State (XETS) at Ariz
Week 11 Series
  • The suddenly resurgent Cardinal head to LA to challenge the second-place Bruins. UCLA, although they lost the series to OSU last week 2-1, are still 4-2 in Pac-12 series so far. Stanford, after a slow conference start, rebounded last weekend to sweep the hot Devils, who were on a six-game conference win streak. Friday’s matchup of Appel vs. Plutko should be a good close one, but after that, give the edge to the Cardinal. Both teams have potent offenses (UCLA second at .313, Stanford fourth at .296), so watch for wild scoring in games two and three, especially in the later innings.
  • OSU is looking to make up lost ground after going 9-1 over their last ten games, including a home series win over UCLA, by taking on a well-rested USC at Dedeaux Field. The starting pitching looks fairly even, though on paper OSU has the advantage. USC’s team BA is higher (.291 to .279), but OSU is second in runs scored (254) to USC’s 182 (tenth). The Beavers have the league’s top batter, Tyler Smith (.415), who is also 11th in the nation, but USC’s Matt Foat is not far behind (.391). And of course there’s OSU’s Michael Conforto, still the RBI per game leader in the nation with 1.44 (52 in 36 games), and Ryan Gorton, who is on an nine-game hit streak where he is 14-for-31 (.452) and has driven his average from .267 to .361.
  • There have been seven conference sweeps so far, and ASU has been involved in four of them (2-2). This week they travel to the Palouse--never a friendly place to city-dwellers. Coming off a series win over fellow PNW rival Oregon, the Cougs are probably happy to welcome the Devils to Pullman. Will ASU be the victors--or the victims--of another sweep? Does Wazzu get over that hump and get back into the postseason bubble-in discussions with another series win over a big-name opponent? These two teams are within one or two slots of each other in most offensive categories, and in the upper half of the league. In terms of pitching, ASU has a decided edge...but not as great as Oregon’s edge over Wazzu, and look what that edge did for the Ducks.
  • Cal, recently emergent from the cellar, visits Eugene. At 11-7, the Ducks are tied with UCLA for second and, depending on how the Bruins fare against the Cardinal, could gain ground on UCLA and even move into a statistical tie for first with idle Arizona (if they sweep the Bears). Cal is likely to feel some confidence and momentum after a long hard crawl out of 11th place, and they just may be getting their legs under them. Cal leads Oregon in most offensive stats--BA, slugging, OBP, runs, hits, RBIs, homers, total bases. Oregon is first or second in the league in most pitching categories and leads Cal in many defensive categories as well, including team ERA, OBA, batters struck out, runners picked off, and fewest runs allowed. Maybe it’ll be as a wise man once said: Good pitching always beats good hitting...and vice-versa.
  • Washington gets something of a reprieve from rigorous Pac-12 play with a vacation weekend in Salt Lake City. They’ll also be playing the inutile Utes, who got swept in Berkeley last weekend, so we can probably expect a game score or two from them this weekend, along with ski reports. At 6-9, the Huskies could use an easy weekend to move from 9th place back into the middle of the Pac.
  • Eastern Tennessee State University (18-20 and 9th in the 10-team Atlantic Sun conference) visits Tucson. Arizona sits alone at the top of the Pac with a 12-6 conference record, so this should be one of those easy sweeps. But they have not played their best when facing subpar competition (Utah, Utah Valley, North Dakota State). The Buccaneers have no great signature wins. They are 2-1 vs. Indiana, 1-1 vs. Tennessee, and 2-1 vs. Florida Gulf Coast.
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4/25/2012 12:47:08 AM


Guest
Stan 2-1
OSU 3-0
WSU 2-1
Cal 2-1
UW 2-1
UA 3-0
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4/25/2012 12:53:16 AM

BeaverBeliever20
BeaverBeliever20
Posts: 129
Stan 2-1
OSU 3-0
WSU 2-1
Cal 2-1
UW 2-1
UA 2-1
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4/25/2012 4:12:16 AM

Florida Beaver
Florida Beaver
Posts: 1216
Stan 2-1
OSU 3-0
ASU 3-0
Ore 2-1
UW 3-0
UA 3-0
edited by Florida Beaver on 4/25/2012
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4/25/2012 6:54:55 AM

SouthernBeaver
SouthernBeaver
Posts: 200
UCLA 2-1
OSU 2-1
ASU 2-1
Ore 2-1
UW 2-1
Ariz 3-0
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4/25/2012 7:41:49 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
SouthernBeaver, haven't seen you in a long time. Welcome back.

Who voted as "Guest"? I think if you use the"quick reply" field at the bottom, it doesn't register your username, so I don't know who that was.

FB, you're missing UW at Utah.
edited by Dodger Matt on 4/25/2012
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4/25/2012 11:07:36 AM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Of general Pac-12 interest, here's the relevant info from Baseball America's postseason stock report....
    Pacific-12 (7 bids) SAFELY IN: UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford, Oregon State

    ON THE BUBBLE (IN):
    Southern California, California
    ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Washington, Washington State


    No change from last week. Washington (No. 42) remains ahead of USC (No. 50) and Cal (No. 64) in the RPI, but the Huskies have won just two of their last seven series (one of them against No. 153 Cal State Bakersfield). Give UW credit for not getting swept against quality opponents like Arizona, Stanford and Oregon State, but not getting swept isn't enough—at some point, the Huskies need to start winning series. Cal's head-to-head series win against Washington—plus its big series win against Texas—gives it the edge, and its RPI will climb into the top 45 with just an 8-8 finish. An 11-5 finish would land the Golden Bears inside the top 32 at season's end. The Trojans, meanwhile, have the benefit of winning the home series against Cal, and they also get to play Washington at home in two weeks.
    Washington State thrust itself back into the at-large discussion with a series win at Oregon this weekend. The Cougars are still just No. 73 in the RPI, but a 12-7 finish will land it inside the top 45, per the Needs Report. For now, the Cougars remain on the outside of the field of 64, but their dangerous offense is capable of bashing a path to regionals.

The only two teams missing from that list are the inutile Utes and the Banned Devils. Hate to root against ASU specifically, but a good Wazzu performance this weekend against them will do good things for the Cougs. And it's not like ASU has anything to play for now....
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4/25/2012 6:00:44 PM

borgguy
borgguy
Posts: 611
Stan 2-1 i still like stanford especially after an impressive sweep of the devils
OSU 2-1 two straight series wins in conference play for the beavs, get back into the discussion of a regional host
ASU 2-1 cougs run into a po'd Devil team with a chip on their shoulder
Ore 2-1 after a dissapointing loss to wazzou and a thrashing in a widweek CW game, duckies regroup and take care of business
UW 3-0 i hear SLC is wonderful this time of year...
Ariz 3-0 overmatched OOC opponenets are always welcome

--
GO BEAVS!
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4/25/2012 7:31:16 PM

OpihiMan
OpihiMan
Posts: 1111
UCLA 2-1
OSU 2-1
ASU 2-1
Ore 3-0
Utah 2-1
Ariz 3-0
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4/25/2012 7:41:51 PM

WildCard85
WildCard85
Posts: 78
STAN 3-0
OSU 2-1
ASU 3-0
ORE 3-0
UW 2-1
Ariz 3-0
GO CARDINAL
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4/25/2012 8:39:29 PM

FullertonBaseballFan
FullertonBaseballFan
Posts: 146
Stan 2-1
OSU 2-1
ASU 2-1
OR 2-1
UW 2-1
AZ 3-0
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4/25/2012 10:30:48 PM

MostUnknown
MostUnknown
Posts: 156
UCLA 2-1
OSU 2-1
ASU 2-1
Cal 2-1
UW 2-1
Ariz 3-0
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4/26/2012 11:39:05 AM

cswanson2k7
cswanson2k7
Posts: 16
Stanford 2-1
Oregon State 2-1
Arizona State 2-1
Oregon 2-1
Washington 2-1
Arizona 3-0
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4/26/2012 1:21:38 PM

BeaverBob
BeaverBob
Posts: 1458
UCLA 2-1
OSU 2-1
WSU 2-1
Cal 2-1
UW 2-1
Ariz 2-1
edited by BeaverBob on 4/26/2012
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4/26/2012 1:25:49 PM

ASU74
ASU74
Posts: 1035
UCLA 2-1
OSU 2-1
WSU 2-1
ORE 2-1
UW 2-1
Ariz 3-0

--
Go Devils !!
Fork Off
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4/26/2012 4:06:59 PM

Rowdy
Rowdy
Posts: 87
UCLA 2-1
USC 2-1
ASU 2-1
ORE 2-1
UW 2-1
UA 3-0
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4/26/2012 10:46:56 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Decided to swing for the fences this week. Not entirely sure about some of these picks, but here goes. Three sweeps.

Stan 2-1
OSU 3-0
WSU 2-1
Ore 2-1
UW 3-0
Ariz 3-0
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4/27/2012 1:05:55 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
Ucla 2-1
Osu 3-0
ASU 2-1
UO 2-1
UW 2-1
AZ- 3-0
edited by Riverduck on 4/27/2012
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4/27/2012 1:06:44 PM

Riverduck
Riverduck
Posts: 2290
We are at the bottom right now.. Not sure if we can pull out of it.
edited by Riverduck on 4/27/2012
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4/27/2012 6:47:48 PM

Dodger Matt
Dodger Matt
Posts: 2423
Pick analysis:
  • Arizona is the top pick, 15/0 with 13 sweeps.
  • Surprising (to me), OSU over USC is second, 14/1 with 5 sweeps.
  • UW over Utah is a close third, also 14/1 with 3 sweeps.
  • Oregon over Cal is fourth, 11/4 with 2 sweeps.
  • ASU over Wazzu comes in fifth, 10/5 with 2 sweeps. That spread is not what I would call close, so the top five series seem to be fairly “obvious” from the voters' perspective.
  • No surprise, the closest series (the only “close” series by votes) should be Stanford over UCLA 8/7 with 1 sweep.
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