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weg313 - all messages by user

4/14/2011 4:56:13 PM
Topic:
Weekend Series Predictions: Who ya have?

weg313
weg313
Kendall, please explain again how UCLA is Top 25 ranked, but a #3 seed in your post-season field projections? And Rice is unranked, but earns a regional host and #1 seed birth? You might try to be a bit more consistent 'cause it's impacting your credibility.
4/15/2011 7:57:59 AM
Topic:
Weekend Series Predictions: Who ya have?

weg313
weg313
shoelessT wrote:
weg313 wrote:
Kendall, please explain again how UCLA is Top 25 ranked, but a #3 seed in your post-season field projections? And Rice is unranked, but earns a regional host and #1 seed birth? You might try to be a bit more consistent 'cause it's impacting your credibility.



Its not impacting his credibility. Come on.


Sorry, but you cannot have it both ways. You cannot ignore RPI in your weekly rankings-- and have both TCU and UCLA in your Top 25, and have Rice unranked-- and then turn around and have a post-season projection with Rice hosting as a #1 seed, with TCU #2 and UCLA #3 in the very same region. That's talking from both sides of one's mouth.
4/15/2011 10:18:33 AM
Topic:
Weekend Series Predictions: Who ya have?

weg313
weg313
Kendall wrote:
weg313 wrote:
shoelessT wrote:
weg313 wrote:
Kendall, please explain again how UCLA is Top 25 ranked, but a #3 seed in your post-season field projections? And Rice is unranked, but earns a regional host and #1 seed birth? You might try to be a bit more consistent 'cause it's impacting your credibility.



Its not impacting his credibility. Come on.


Sorry, but you cannot have it both ways. You cannot ignore RPI in your weekly rankings-- and have both TCU and UCLA in your Top 25, and have Rice unranked-- and then turn around and have a post-season projection with Rice hosting as a #1 seed, with TCU #2 and UCLA #3 in the very same region. That's talking from both sides of one's mouth.


First of all, Walt, this is a weekend series predictions thread, so please ask questions in the future on other threads, or start a new one. On a side note, you've followed the game long enough to know that projections have absolutely nothing to do where a team sits in reality. And again, I'll say it once again, I'd take UCLA in a three-game series against Rice right now. For some reason, that's hard to fathom.


Yes, K, it's VERY hard to fathom. UCLA has beaten absolutely nobody all season long. The fact that they're currently sitting in second place in the Pac-10 is totally meaningless given that,to date, they have only played the three worst teams in the conference. I'm not saying Rice is not without it's vulnerabilities this season, but by every measure imaginable, they deserve to be ranked ahead of UCLA right now. Ditto TCU.
4/15/2011 10:53:28 AM
Topic:
PREVIEW: Breaking down the weekend (4/15)

weg313
weg313
eagleboy415 wrote:
I have a question Kendall. This doesn't exactly pertain to the weekend in a sense, but reading the article made me think of it. How come when C-USA teams beat up on each other, it's not good, but when SEC teams beat up on each other, it's because they're "so equally strong."


In the past, Kendall has been quite objective and consistent in his analyses. This year, for whatever reason, he's all over the map. He raves up one team because of it's resume (RPI, record against the Top 25/50/100), but ignores the awful resume of others (e.g., UCLA, LSU). He talks about C-USA as being vastly improved with a bunch of good, but not elite teams, but he refuses to say the same about the SEC West. He also convenient ignores the fact that C-USA is within earshot of overtaking the Big 12 for the #3 spot in conference RPI.
4/15/2011 2:47:48 PM
Topic:
PREVIEW: Breaking down the weekend (4/15)

weg313
weg313
K, with all due respect, take away LSU's early home sweep of CSF (and we all know the difficulty playing after a lengthy, intercontinental travel), and their resume is a total joke. And let's not forget that LSU doesn't play away from home and it's 9000+ adoring fans at the Box until they are forced to in conference play. To answer your question-- yes, I think LSU, Tulane, UCF, ECU and Ole Miss are all essentially the same team with the same resume. And, yes, I'm being serious.
4/16/2011 8:34:43 AM
Topic:
FRIDAY'S 27 TAKES: S.C.'s Roth sets tone (4/15)

weg313
weg313
K, I know you haven't seen the Owls since the second week of the season, but they are playing the same caliber ball they have played since early-to-mid March. The pitching has been on par with anyone in the country, but the big issue has been an anemic offense caused in large part by the injuries to Fuda (who still hasn't found his swing since returning from a one-month absence due to a tweaked hammy), Rendon (his shoulder injury has not only taken away his power, but because he has been relegated to DH, it takes Craig Manuel-- our #2 best hitter at the moment-- out of the lineup when he's not catching) and, of course, Rathjen (who's power and speed provided legitimate protection for Rendon in the lineup). If Fuda and Ratterree can ever regain the offensive form they've shown in past years, this Rice team should take off down the home stretch. The pitching has been nothing short of sensational-- the best top-to-bottom (but with considerably more depth) since the 2003 - '04 days of the Big 3....and most of these guys will be back in 2012 (along with Connor Mason, McDowell and Fazio). We will continue to ride Kubitza, Reckling, Gonzales, Cingrani, Simms, Duffey, Wall, Spurlin and Fant through the post-season.
4/16/2011 9:04:17 AM
Topic:
FRIDAY'S 27 TAKES: S.C.'s Roth sets tone (4/15)

weg313
weg313
K, as great as Rendon is, he hasn't done much all year. He's batting under .250 with runners in scoring position for the year. Clearly, his shoulder soreness and inability to play the field (which keeps his mind in the game) as affected his hitting. Having said that, it's Fuda and Rat who have really failed to meet expectations, and they need to find a way to get back their old form.
4/16/2011 10:20:10 AM
Topic:
FRIDAY'S 27 TAKES: S.C.'s Roth sets tone (4/15)

weg313
weg313
Kendall wrote:
weg313 wrote:
K, as great as Rendon is, he hasn't done much all year. He's batting under .250 with runners in scoring position for the year. Clearly, his shoulder soreness and inability to play the field (which keeps his mind in the game) as affected his hitting. Having said that, it's Fuda and Rat who have really failed to meet expectations, and they need to find a way to get back their old form.


Walt ..... If I'm OG, and Rendon isn't really a huge factor right now, I'd almost entertain the idea of sitting him for a few weeks and get him healthy for the postseason run. What say Owls fans?


No chance, K. The offense is simply too anemic at the moment to even entertain that thought. For all his struggles this season (vs. his career norm, which sets the bar pretty darn high), Rendon can be counted upon to get on base a couple times a game...and the Owls offense desperately need any baserunners they can get.
4/23/2011 8:24:37 AM
Topic:
RPI vs. Conf Rank

weg313
weg313
K, RPI is a joke precisely because it does not accurately take SoS into account. How can Georgia possibly have a #20 RPI with a 19-20 overall record? BTW, I though the Committee also factors in record vs. Top 25/50/100 when comparing teams.
4/23/2011 10:09:37 AM
Topic:
RPI vs. Conf Rank

weg313
weg313
K, the Rice/Wayne Graham formula is most similar to CSF and Stanford-- schedule a couple early road series against Top 25/50 caliber teams, schedule remaining OOC weekend series against no worse than Top 100 squads (and never with teams outside the Top 150), and fill your mid-week schedule with post-season caliber teams. Obviously, it helps being in Texas or California, where there are abundance of nearby (within 3-hour bus ride) quality programs to fill one's mid-week schedule.
5/9/2011 3:31:49 PM
Topic:
CHAT TRANSCRIPT: Check it out (5/9)

weg313
weg313
K, you're going to have to explain to me how CSF "definately deserves to host", the Aggies are in the running for a national seed, but Rice is fighting for one of the final host spots. You do realize the records, RPI and SoS for all three teams are very, very similar? Sure, CSF is going to win the Big West, but that conference is a joke this season, with not a single other Top 50 team. As for the Aggies vs. Rice, you do realize the Owls are 2-0 vs. A&M this year? Also, you mention injury issues at CSF; what about at Rice (with Rathjen, McDowell, Fazio, Fuda and Rathjen)?
BTW, you say TCU must improve it's resume down the stretch, but that will be impossible for them to do given who the play the remaining 8 games of the regular season, and into the MWC tourney. TCU could run the table the rest of the way and see it's RPI decline for it's current #20 spot.
5/9/2011 7:06:48 PM
Topic:
CHAT TRANSCRIPT: Check it out (5/9)

weg313
weg313
Kenny Powers wrote:
Rice fans, never changes, always complaining about being disrespected.

Why get so butt hurt by Kendall's opinion, Rice is not a Top 8 in any projections....deal with and quit crying

Besides Texas, TCU, A&M, OU are all better than Rice this year, no way Rice makes it to Omaha.

(yes I know Rice beat A&M, but one of those was midweek, in a 3 games series or in a Regional no way Rice could match A&M arms)


??? Excuse me? I never said UT was not superior to Rice this season, though the gap is nowhere near as wide as you might lead one to believe. As for A&M, TCU, CSF, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, what exactly makes any one them better than Rice this year? Not record. Not SoS. Not RPI. Not road record. And not even record against Top 25/50/100. Just because those others were ranked higher in the preseason polls, doesn't make them better. As for the Aggies, we shut them out for 18 innings in our two victories-- one of them against their #2 pitcher. I also think you and others are grossly underestimating the Rice arms. They might not be the nationally familiar names that the Aggies have, but statistically speaking I like the Owls chances in a regional with Kubitza-Reckling-Simms as starters, and Wall-Duffey-Gonzales-Cingrani-Fant-Spurlin out of the pen.
5/10/2011 8:07:44 AM
Topic:
CHAT TRANSCRIPT: Check it out (5/9)

weg313
weg313
K, I love how you conveniently leave RPI, SoS and road record out of your resume discussion, as well as Rice's 2-0 record vs. the Aggiies. Factor those two considerations into the equation (and we all know the Committee will do so), and Rice and A&M have virtually identical resumes. And while the Aggies end their season with UT, Rice ends their season on the road against a team with an even higher RPI than Texas (USM). If both teams run the table the rest of the way, Rice will have the superior overall resume. That's not conjecture, K; that's fact.
5/10/2011 3:13:20 PM
Topic:
CHAT TRANSCRIPT: Check it out (5/9)

weg313
weg313
K, I have said from the outset that UT's resume is better. When did I ever say otherwise. The Aggies on the otherhand, have almost the identical resume-- especially when most recent record, road record and head-to-head is taken into account. Yes, as I said above already, if the Aggies run the table-- including winning the series against UT, they-- and not UT-- will get the national seed. No debate there. However, we're talking about now....and the Aggies have a lousy road record (big surprise!) and have played .500 ball the past several weeks. Again, Rice ends the season against USM for the CUSA conference championship, and at the moment USM has an even better RPI than Texas. If Rice runs the table they will almost assuredly cop a national seed, and deservedly so, as they will be conference champion of the #5 ranked conference (only slightly behind the Pac-10 and Big 12 in RPI) and would have an RPI no worse than in the #9 - #11 range (if that scenario plays out).
5/11/2011 9:02:30 AM
Topic:
CHAT TRANSCRIPT: Check it out (5/9)

weg313
weg313
BTW, K-- not saying Rice is better than Texas, but...as of this morning: Rice and UT are tied in RPI at #13/14 and Rice has a much better SoS (#25 vs.#58). Just saying. The reality is that the Big 12 and C-USA are quite comparable this year by any measure or criteria.

Also, with yesterday's blowout loss to FSU, I no longer think Stetson is a lock for a regional host birth; not when there are so many other southeastern schools ahead of them...and we all know the Committee seeks some semblance of geographic balance in their selection of regional hosts.
5/11/2011 10:17:21 AM
Topic:
CHAT TRANSCRIPT: Check it out (5/9)

weg313
weg313
Geez, K-- there is not that much difference (from an RPI standpoint) playing a #58 ranked team vs. a #91 ranked team...and USM has an RPI four spots ahead of UT. Stop exaggerating the differences here. Also, next Tuesday, Rice plays #43 Texas State and the Aggies play #108 UT-PA. Overall, a wash if you ask me.
5/11/2011 11:15:11 AM
Topic:
CHAT TRANSCRIPT: Check it out (5/9)

weg313
weg313
1. Per the other poster, I was not referring to national seed considerations in my comments; only where Rice stacks up against UT, A&M, TCU, CSF, et al. Having said all that, I do think that should either USM or Rice run the table, copping the C-USA title in the process, they will most definately be in the running for one of the final national seed spots. Having said that, with regard to Rice, I'm focused on earning a regional birth at the moment...and our 16th consecutive conference title-- whether than be regular season or via the tourney.
5/11/2011 3:32:14 PM
Topic:
CHAT TRANSCRIPT: Check it out (5/9)

weg313
weg313
Money no longer buys a host birth. And Rice has done very, very nicely attendance-wise whenever it earns a regional or super-regional hosting birth. I do think that this year, especially, the southwest will get at least four host spots...but that will be amongst UT, Rice, A&M, TCU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State...and even Arkansas is really more SW than SE (though it's in the SEC). That's why I was comparing Rice's resume to A&M and TCU. The Aggies are in good shape IF they take care of Nebraska at home (as expected) AND beat Texas next weekend...but the latter task is a long shot, IMO, particularly since 2 of the 3 games are being played in Austin, and the Longhorns own the Aggies of late. Should the Aggies lose that series, Rice will have the better resume given they're 2-0 in head-to-head. Really critical as I believe if either the Aggies or Owls fall back to a #2 seed they would be sent to either Houston or College Station.
5/12/2011 3:14:11 PM
Topic:
CHAT TRANSCRIPT: Check it out (5/9)

weg313
weg313
You do realize Rice is now at #12 in RPI and well ahead of Stetson?
5/15/2011 9:18:31 PM
Topic:
CHAT TRANSCRIPT: Check it out (5/9)

weg313
weg313
NolesFanJosh wrote:
weg313 wrote:
You do realize Rice is now at #12 in RPI and well ahead of Stetson?


Depending on which site you are going off of (I'm using WarrenNolan.com) Rice is @ 16, Stetson @ 17. But I'm presuming you're going off of Boyd's?? Can anyone pull up UConn's #'s from last year and compare to Stetson's?!??


Yes, I use Boyd's for his pRPI as it has historically proven to be much closer to the NCAA numbers than Warren Nolan. The primary reason is that I believe Warren Nolan does not factor in the road win bonus. I do, however, use Warren Nolan's Nitty Gritty Report as an indespensable tool for comparing programs.
edited by weg313 on 5/15/2011
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