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weg313 - all messages by user

5/16/2011 4:20:11 PM
Topic:
TRANSCRIPT: Kendall Rogers' weekly chat (5/16)

weg313
weg313
DM, once again, using ISR to prop up the weak Big West conference is almost as bad as the southeast schools hanging their hat on RPI to boost up their lousy schools performance. Do you honestly think the Big West is anywhere near comparable to C-USA this season? If so, you're probably the only college baseball fan that believes so. C-USA has a winning record against the SEC, Big 12 and Pac-10 this year. And from an RPI standpoint, we are right on the heals of both the Pac-10 and Big 12.

K, why do you continue to diss Rice this year (very unusual for you). Despite as severe injury woes as any team in the country this year, Rice's overall resume stacks up well against at least 5 - 6 teams ranked ahead of the Owls in your rankings. UConn ranked ahead of Rice? Based on what exactly? Troy? Stetson? And, again, give the Aggies all the love you want, but Rice and A&M have virtually the identical resume, with Rice having the vastly superior road record and 2-0 in head-to-head. Why is A&M a lock for a national seed should they beat Texas this weekend, but Rice would still be fighting for just a regional if it beats USM on the road? Sorry, but that makes absolutely no sense.

As for you comments about Rice at USM this weekend, no question USM has the edge offensively, but you make it sound like the Eagles have the edge in pitching. I'll take Kubitza over McInnis (Friday) and Simms over Thompson (Sunday) amongst the starters, and as good as Cargill has been as USM's closer, Rice has a pretty elite trio in the bullpen with Duffey-Gonzalez-Cingrani...and Wall will likely be in the bullpen for that season-ending series, as well. Clearly, Rice has the edge in the bullpen, and at worst the starting rotation is a wash (and that's only because Reckling rarely goes more than 5 innings due to his control issues).
5/16/2011 5:11:27 PM
Topic:
TRANSCRIPT: Kendall Rogers' weekly chat (5/16)

weg313
weg313
Dodger Matt wrote:
DM, once again, using ISR to prop up the weak Big West conference is almost as bad as the southeast schools hanging their hat on RPI to boost up their lousy schools performance.
Walt, I am in no way trying to prop up the Big West. Yes, the C-USA is far better than the Big West this year, but still nowhere near the Pac. My point is to show how silly these RPI-centric arguments are.


Matt, I personally would agree with you that the Pac-10 is better than C-USA this year, but not by as much as you might think. No question the Pac-10 has more bottom-feeders this year than C-USA, and I don't think that's really debatable. Where I disagree strongly with Kendall is his propping up the Big 12 vs. C-USA this year. IMO, they're pretty much the same conference...and the stats and various measures back that up. Each conference has two elite teams (A&m, UT vs. USM, Rice) and a couple others in the Top 35 (Oklahoma, OSU vs. UCF, ECU), and each has a bunch of others on the bubble (Baylor/Texas Tech/Nebraska vs. Houston/Tulane/UAB). Yet, Kendall has the Aggies and Longhorns fighting it out for a national seed this weekend, while Rice - USM fight it out for regional host births.
5/17/2011 5:29:35 AM
Topic:
Southern Miss Still Roll'n

weg313
weg313
Should be a great series. Keep in mind that the Owls have done well at The Pete in all previous visits, and Rice is one of the better road teams, record-wise, in the country. Save for the UAB series (and that was immediately before Final Exams, with many of the players up for 36 hours straights prior to travelling to get papers and projects in), Rice has actually played better on the road than at home this year.
5/17/2011 12:04:48 PM
Topic:
Rice v Southern Miss

weg313
weg313
I'm not Kendall, but he already gave his take a chat response yesterday. From my perspective, USM has the decided edge being at home, and has a far superior and more consistent offense. Rice is one of the better road teams in the country, and has the superior pitching statistically; especially when you factor in the relatively wide differential in strength of schedule. I also think Rice has the deeper bullpen with Cingrani-Duffey-Gonzales-Wall-Fant. Having said that, USM pitching is above average; particularly with McInnis,Thomas and Cargill. USM is a much more upperclass-laden squad, and that could prove to be a big edge considering the pressure and mental aspects. USM will also be better rested-- not only because they're playing at home; whereas the Owls have to fly to Jackson and then bus to Hattiesburg on Wednesday, but also because USM doesn't play a mid-week, while Rice plays #25 Texas State tonight (before traveling tomorrow). Rice will be taking a big risk tonight by trying to get by with seldom-used, second-tier pitchers (McNair, Spurlin, Fazio), hoping to preserve the bullpen for the upcoming series. Can Rice's true Freshmen (Kubitza, Simms, Hoelscher, Hamilton, Cook, Aquino) step up on the biggest, most pressure-packed stage they've faced yet? That will be the determining factor, IMO.
5/17/2011 12:21:22 PM
Topic:
Rice v Southern Miss

weg313
weg313
Kendall wrote:
Eagle04 wrote:
Kendall, The series this weekend will determine who wins the regular season title and takes the #1 seed in the tournament. What are your deciding factors in the outcome and how do you see the series going? Should be some great baseball and i'm glad its in Hattiesburg.


Offensive production also is important, but it's going to come down to which teams pitches at a higher level. I watched a couple of the Rice/Memphis games over the weekend and the Owls put a lot of stress on their bullpen. Southern Miss probably has a bit more stability with McInnis/Thomas and Cargill at the back end of the bullpen. I think USM wins the series at home, but would not be surprised at all if Rice wins the series. The Owls are VERY solid when they want to be.


K, you've repeated this comment about pitching stability a couple times now without backing anything up with evidence. Kubitza has had but one bad outing all season long, and that was the road trip at UAB with year-end academic pressures omnipresent for the true Freshman. McInnis has long been outstanding, but Kubitza has better stats against a tougher SoS. I'll give you Thomas over Reckling, due to Reckling's command issues and inability to go past 5-6 innings, but his BAA is .200...and let's not forget that Thomas has a poor outing this past weekend, as well. And I'll take Simms over Thompson on Sunday. As for the bullpen, as good as Cargill has been, he's just one arm and he's basically a 1-2 inning closer. Rice counters with two elite bullpen arms (RHP Duffey, LHP Cingrani), both of whom can go as long as 3 innings per outing, along with a very reliable guy in LHP Abe Gonzales...and Taylor Wall will be available in relief for the USM series, as well. RHP Jeremy Fant has also contributed consistently the past several weeks, and provides yet another power arm to go along with Duffey and Cingrani. Last weekend vs. Memphis the bullpen was stretched because it had to work 6 innings against ULL during the mid-weeker.
5/18/2011 4:55:12 AM
Topic:
CBT ($): In-depth projections breakdown (5/18)

weg313
weg313
K, in your analysis you compared the resumes of Stetson and Fresno St., arguing that Stetson had the bulldogs beat. How? I'll take the 2-0 vs. Top 25 and 5-0 vs. Top 50 anyday. Also, the Committee will be seeking a fourth Western regional for geographic balance; whereas there is an abundance of quality, host-worthy southeastern teams. I do think this may be the year the Committee gives increased weight to conference performance and conference titles in determining national seeds and regional hosts, but Stetson's only strong case at the moment is simply that they're a mid-major. Sorry,but that's not enough, IMO.
5/18/2011 9:59:08 AM
Topic:
National Seeds after this weekend's losses

weg313
weg313
Eagle, don't mind Kendall, who for whatever reason continues to believe there's some big gap between C-USA and the Big 12 this year when, in reality, there is very little. He continues to push A&M's resume over Rice's, when then are on par, especially when you factor in Rice's significant edge in head-to-head (2-0) and road record.
5/20/2011 5:38:18 AM
Topic:
Rice v Southern Miss

weg313
weg313
Austin Kubitza deserves C-USA Pitcher of the Year based on across-the-board stats (ERA, WHIP, BAA, K:BB ratio, K's per IP), and is amongst a handful of candidates for Freshman POY. As important as his dominant outing last night, after our mid-week game against Texas State, he was able to preserve the bullpen for the next two games. Cingrani only threw 8 pitches, while Duffey, Gonzales, Wall and Fant are now well-rested and ready to go if and when needed.
5/20/2011 9:57:39 AM
Topic:
CBT ($): Report on Stilson/Jungmann bout (5/20)

weg313
weg313
Kenny Powers wrote:
There have been 3 pitchers over the last decade or so that have dominated college baseball at an insane level….that list includes Mark Prior, Jared Weaver, and of course Stephen Strasburg.

Go ahead and add Taylor Jungmann to that list, he has proven to be those guys equal….nails.


I think you're also forgetting Jeff Niemann his Soph year in 2003, when he went 17-0 and led the country in ERA and WHIP, and was amongst the leaders in K:BB ratio and BAA. Also, it should be noted (though few realize it), Wade Townsend's across-the-board numbers in 2003 - '04 were comparable to Weaver's. Townsend arguably was the second best pitcher in the country two consecutive season (behind Niemann in '03 and Weaver in '04).

I've long stated my preference (at least at the college level) for Jungmann over Cole, Purke and Co...though Bauer has given him a run for his money this year.
edited by weg313 on 5/20/2011
5/20/2011 1:52:57 PM
Topic:
CBT ($): Report on Stilson/Jungmann bout (5/20)

weg313
weg313
Kenny Powers wrote:
Wow....Rice fans never cease to amaze, their inferiority complex is so strong they can't even stand to read a thread about a Texas or Texas A&M or TCU player without interjecting their 2 cents about some kid that went to Rice.

And you are very wrong....Niemann and Townsend aren't comparable to Jungmann or the other guys listed, they were good, but on a lower tier talent and performance wise.


Kenny, you're so jaded you did not even notice my compliment of Jungmann, who I have long admired. As for Niemann and Townsend,you're the one who's dead wrong. I strongly suggest you look up their stats for the 2003 and (in Townsend's case, since Niemann was injured) 2004 seasons. I was responding to the guy who mentioned only 3 other, previous guys who dominated college baseball the past decade. And, I'm sorry, but if you're going to include Jared Weaver-- and I agree he belongs based on his final two seasons, you've got to include Neimann's 2003 season and Townsend's 2003 and '04 seasons. Townsend's 03 was superior to Weaver's '03, and his '04 numbers were only slightly behind Weaver's. Hard to include Strasburg in the equation, for as dominant as he was his Junior season, the level of competition he faced was so much inferior to any of the other guys, that his stats were at least somewhat inflated on a relative basis.
5/20/2011 8:46:31 PM
Topic:
CBT ($): Report on Stilson/Jungmann bout (5/20)

weg313
weg313
Kenny Powers wrote:
This has to be a joke right, comparing Wade Townsend to Jared Weaver, one of the best college pitchers of all time to "Wade Townsend"...I'd laugh if I didn't feel so sorry for your delusions.
Congrats though, you succeeded in derailing a thread and make it about Rice....on all of Kendall's draft projections analysis you should post that whomever the player is that they aren't as good as "X" kid from Rice....blowhard
Since you wanted so much to make the thread about Rice here is the skinny about the program you follow...as little as 3 years ago Rice was an elite program (Top 5) but now they are more of a fringe Top 20 program that has been passed up in the state by TCU and Texas A&M, and who knows once Whitting gets he feet wet then U of H could be there soon too. Rice will not be back in Omaha any time soon, and you should be complimenting Jungmann, because if KR's projections are correct and Rice comes to Austin for a Super, then Jungmann will be running them out of town disappointed just like last year.

There ya go....now its a Rice thread (detailing the slow decline of the program)...you got what you wanted.


Please explain to me how TCU and the Aggies have passed Rice amongst the college baseball elite. As of tomorrow morning, Rice will have locked up it's 16th consecutive conference championship, as well as the #9 RPI ranking (which is ahead of UT, A&M and TCU). We're also 2-0 against the Aggies this year in head-to-head...and it was Augie who ran away from a 2-year home and home series contract (in order to play in Hawaii). Thanks to the pundits such as Kendall, and a series of dehabilitating injuries (Rendon, Fuda, Rathjen, McDowell and now Wall), the Owls have flown under the radar up to this point. No longer. We sweep USM on the road tomorrow, and we're in the thick of the national seed discussion.
5/20/2011 8:50:57 PM
Topic:
Hey Kendall--USM in danger?

weg313
weg313
Kendall has already tweeted that he thinks the Eagles are still safe, provided they win a couple games next week in the C-USA tourney. I'm not so sure, as I fail to see how the resume stacks up. IMO, you've got to avoid the sweep tomorrow, as that would at least allow some to perceive that you won a share of the regular season championship (though I'm not quite sure why everyone keeps repeating that when Rice beat you 2 of 3 on your home turf).
edited by weg313 on 5/20/2011
5/21/2011 4:19:59 AM
Topic:
27 TAKES: Looking back at Friday's action (5/20)

weg313
weg313
K, the Owls actually played a better all-around game against USM on Thursday. Also, just because you (in particular) have under-ranked Rice all season, it's not as if they're just now playing outstanding baseball. If not for Houston dropping out of the Top 50 (and costing the Owls an incremental 5-0 record against the Top 50), Rice would have a resume on par with anyone but the top 5 - 6 teams...having done it despite as severe injuries woes as any team in the country (Fazio, Rendon, Fuda, Rathjen, McDowell and now Wall). Will you finally acknowledge that Rice's resume has surpassed the Aggies, and even TCU. It's due time you stopped putting marginal teams (UConn, Stetson, Troy) ahead of Rice in your rankings.
5/21/2011 3:20:39 PM
Topic:
27 TAKES: Looking back at Friday's action (5/20)

weg313
weg313
Eagle, Congrats on the share of the title (even if the tie-breaker goes to Rice for taking 2 of 3 on the road). That should help give you guys consideration for a host berth. As for KP, he roots for Texas, which is why he has to make derogatory comments about Rice and call any non-BCS conference "mediocre".

And, K, while I know you have long respected Rice, you have (more than any other poll or regional field projection) kept them beneath the radar until this week. The reality is that Rice, A&M, CSF and even TCU have had pretty identical resumes-- all things factored in-- for a couple weeks now. And, again, I'm sorry, but having UConn and Troy ranked ahead of Rice this week was an insult given the respective RPIs, SOS and overall resumes. Made absolutely no sense.
5/21/2011 3:31:35 PM
Topic:
ANALYSIS: Saturday's RPI Report (5/21)

weg313
weg313
Can't argue with this analysis, K. I do think USM HAD to win today's game against Rice (which they did) to stay on the inside of the regional host discussion. That share of the conference title will be huge in weeding out the final host spots, IMO. Though I think Rice will only slip one RPI spot with today's loss to USM (switching places with UT), I do think it greatly diminishes any possibility of a super regional. There's an outside shot if we sweep the C-USA tourney, but at this point I think the Owls get a regional host so long as they win one or two games in the tourney next week.
5/22/2011 1:34:52 PM
Topic:
GOOD/BAD: Looking back at Sat's action (5/22)

weg313
weg313
Agree with your analysis, K. The only way Rice gets into the national seed discussion is to sweep (4-0) the C-USA tourney, and even then it would only get us into the mix. As I've said previously, I really think this is the year the Committee puts increased weight on winning a share of the conference championship-- whether that be regular season or the tourney. Anyone who fails to do so are putting both their national seed and regional hosting berths on the line. It's why I think USM salvaging their lone win this past weekend was absolutely huge to their hopes to host. I also think CSF has moved into the national seed discussion, but only if the Committee decides to punish ASU (as I cannot see three Western national seeds).
5/28/2011 1:06:19 PM
Topic:
ANALYSIS: Friday's who helped/hurt cases

weg313
weg313
K, you continue to argue that A&M has the slightly better overall resume than Rice, and would consequently earn the final national seed spot if both win tomorrow, and if the Committee decides to give the state of Texas a second national seed. I continue to scratch my head on this logic. First off, I cannot see the Selection Committee doling out a second national seed to a Big 12 team instead of giving the regular season and tourney champ of the #5 ranked conference a national seed; especially since the two resumes are so similar.

Yes, the Aggies have the better record against Top 50/100 teams (with Rice having the better record against the top 25), but that is only because Kansas State is just barely inside the Top 50 and UH is just barely outside the Top 50. KSU and UH are essentially the exact same team. (Note-- KSU's W-L record is padded by scheduliing a whopping 13 games against sub-RPI 200 ranked teams, against whom they are 13-0.) Second, we have virtually the same RPI, SoS, conference record/standings and OOC record (save for the recognition that the Aggies are 7-0 against teams ranked below RPI 200; whereas Rice has yet to play a single game against a sub-RPI 200 opponent. However, Rice blows the Aggies away in road record (13-5 vs. 10-8) and road/neutral site record (18-9 vs.13-10)...and then there's our 2-0 record in head-to-head. So, I ask again, should both the Aggies and Owls win tomorrow night, and one of the two get a national seed, I just cannot see any way they give it to the Aggies (and a second Big 12 team) over the Owls; especially since their resumes are so similar and Rice has a 2-0 edge in head-to-head.
5/28/2011 4:31:17 PM
Topic:
Another update on TAMU P John Stilson (5/28)

weg313
weg313
K, does the Selection Committee have the leeway (as it does in March Madness seeding) to factor recent injuries into their seeding decisions?
5/29/2011 7:15:49 AM
Topic:
SATURDAY: Who helped/hurt cases (5/29)

weg313
weg313
Kendall, you've yet to respond to my comment/question below. Once again, in the attached article, you argue that if the Aggies with the Big 12 tourney, they deserve a national seed...but imply Rice (who have now won both the regular season and conference tourney championships of the #5 ranked C-USA) might not have done enough to cop the final national seed. I continue to question this logic, as the Owls and Aggies have virtually the identical overall resume (virtually equivalent record, RPI, SoS, conference standings)-- with the Aggies holding the edge in record vs. Top50/100, but Rice holding the edge in record vs. Top25, road/neutral site record and head-to-head (2-0, and one of those was a Saturday night showcase game of aces). Given this, and the head-to-head (the Aggies have yet to score on the Owls in 18 innings), why in the world woulld the Selection Committee give a second national seed to the Big12 before giving one to C-USA, when the two teams under consideration are so equivalent, but one has the decisive head-to-head advantage? And for that matter, why does everyone have Texas as a lock national seed, when the Aggies and Rice have better RPIs and much superior SoS?

K, you continue to argue that A&M has the slightly better overall resume than Rice, and would consequently earn the final national seed spot if both win tomorrow, and if the Committee decides to give the state of Texas a second national seed. I continue to scratch my head on this logic. First off, I cannot see the Selection Committee doling out a second national seed to a Big 12 team instead of giving the regular season and tourney champ of the #5 ranked conference a national seed; especially since the two resumes are so similar.

Yes, the Aggies have the better record against Top 50/100 teams (with Rice having the better record against the top 25), but that is only because Kansas State is just barely inside the Top 50 and UH is just barely outside the Top 50. KSU and UH are essentially the exact same team. (Note-- KSU's W-L record is padded by scheduliing a whopping 13 games against sub-RPI 200 ranked teams, against whom they are 13-0.) Second, we have virtually the same RPI, SoS, conference record/standings and OOC record (save for the recognition that the Aggies are 7-0 against teams ranked below RPI 200; whereas Rice has yet to play a single game against a sub-RPI 200 opponent. However, Rice blows the Aggies away in road record (13-5 vs. 10-8) and road/neutral site record (18-9 vs.13-10)...and then there's our 2-0 record in head-to-head. So, I ask again, should both the Aggies and Owls win tomorrow night, and one of the two get a national seed, I just cannot see any way they give it to the Aggies (and a second Big 12 team) over the Owls; especially since their resumes are so similar and Rice has a 2-0 edge in head-to-head.
5/29/2011 1:18:57 PM
Topic:
SATURDAY: Who helped/hurt cases (5/29)

weg313
weg313
K, stop saying RPI, SoS and overall record are slight advantages to the Aggies; in reality, they are virtually identical. As for the "huge" edge the Aggies have in record against Top 50, that entire edge is due to the fact that KSU happens to fall just inside the Top 50 and UH falls just outside the Top 50...when, in reality, the two have similar resumes (with KSU's vastly superior W-L record due to their scheduling a whopping 13 games against sub-RPI 200 teams). And, again, you totally dismiss the issue of giving the Big12 a second national seed before giving C-USA one, despite C-USA having 4 teams in the Top 27 (more than the Big 12). Given the identical resumes, you would think head-to-head comes into play. No? BTW, road record is not "slight advantage" to Rice; it's a humongous edge for Rice (13-5 vs. 10-8).
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