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weg313 - all messages by user

5/29/2011 1:26:11 PM
Topic:
ANALYSIS: Sunday's RPI Analysis (5/29)

weg313
weg313
K,as much as I'd love to see it happen, I think you're dreaming if you think USM is going to land a host berth. Having dropped 6 of their last 9 games, their RPI has fallen to #20, and they missed the 40-win plateau. What's more, they have a poor record against the Top 25 and an only so-so record against the Top 50. Finally, there a just too many other southeastern programs with better resumes.
5/29/2011 2:06:36 PM
Topic:
SATURDAY: Who helped/hurt cases (5/29)

weg313
weg313
BTW, Kendall-- thanks for taking the time to prepare the analysis and breakdown. Much appreciated!
5/29/2011 2:09:19 PM
Topic:
Any chance that both Rice and Texas A&M...

weg313
weg313
In 1999, there were 3 national seeds from Texas (Baylor, Houston, A&M), just to provide historical precedence.

K, please don't tell me the Committee could boost CSF into a national seed to ensure one in the West?
5/29/2011 3:20:07 PM
Topic:
Any chance that both Rice and Texas A&M...

weg313
weg313
If A&M loses, they are definitely out. If they win, it's a neck and neck hair-splitter with Rice for the final national seed.
5/29/2011 5:39:03 PM
Topic:
Any chance that both Rice and Texas A&M...

weg313
weg313
Frogs Fanatic wrote:
I think Texas A&M has one in the bag. now its between Rice and FSU. Tossup


Again, Froggie, how the heck does A&M have one in the bag, but Rice doesn't? I suggest you revisit the thread in which Kendall and I go back and forth on the comparable resumes. In a nutshell...

- The Aggies were co-Big12 regular season champs (but #2 seed as they lost to Texas) and won the Big 12 tourney.
- Rice was co-CUSA regular season champs (and #1 seed, having beaten USM on the road) and won the CUSA tourney

- A&M and Rice have essentially the same RPI (within .001 of each other), SoS, overall record and conference standing.

- A&M has the edge over Rice in record vs. Top 50/100
- Rice has the edge of the Aggies in record vs. Top 25 and road record

- Rice holds a 2-0 edge in head-to-head vs. A&M (one mid-weeker and one Saturday night showdown between aces), and the Aggies have yet to score a run against Rice pitching in 18 innings of action.

- Though the Big12 ranks ahead of C-USA in RPI (#3 vs. #5), the margin is not that great. In fact, C-USA have more Top 30 teams (4) than the Big 12 (3).

So again I ask you, please explain how the Aggies have a national seed "in the bag", but Rice does not; especially since the Big 12 will already have one national seed in Texas. Given how close the comparable Rice-A&M resumes are, why would the committee give a second national seed to the Big12 instead of giving one to C-USA, all other things equal (which they are)...and Rice is 2-0 in head-to-head.
5/29/2011 5:42:28 PM
Topic:
Any chance that both Rice and Texas A&M...

weg313
weg313
fsugeo wrote:
Frogs Fanatic wrote:
I think Texas A&M has one in the bag. now its between Rice and FSU. Tossup



I have to think FSU's 15 wins against the Top 25 of the RPI (and 12 of the 17 losses too) is a pretty big separator at this point.

I don't know if FSU would be Rice if they played this weekend, but I know over 60 games they have a better resume than Rice and really shouldn't even be in this discussion.


Agreed on all points you mentioned above. HOWEVER, you left out one important point and criteria-- in-conference record and standing. Rice won both the regular season and conference tournament championship of the #5th ranked conference (virtually tied with the Pac-10); whereas, FSU finished 3rd during the regular season and 2nd in the tourney. Yes, the ACC is a better conference than C-USA, but not winning a share of the conference championship puts you at the mercy of the Selection Committee, regardless to what your RPI and record against the top 25/50/100 might be.
5/29/2011 6:15:41 PM
Topic:
Any chance that both Rice and Texas A&M...

weg313
weg313
fsugeo wrote:
FSU actually finished with the 5th best record in the Regular Season (percentage points behind Miami) and it is the reason we are having this discussion. Had they finished second or third the idea of them being on the bubble would be crazy.

I have no problem with them "fighting" for the last two spots, but I if the team they are fighting is Rice I see it as a no-brainer to which team has a better resume.


Again, why? Resume includes conference record and standing; in fact, that has always been weighed very, very heavily by the Committee. You cannot simply disregard conference standing and say FSU has the no-brainer superior resume. You don't.
5/29/2011 6:30:29 PM
Topic:
Any chance that both Rice and Texas A&M...

weg313
weg313
fsugeo wrote:
weg313 wrote:
fsugeo wrote:
FSU actually finished with the 5th best record in the Regular Season (percentage points behind Miami) and it is the reason we are having this discussion. Had they finished second or third the idea of them being on the bubble would be crazy.

I have no problem with them "fighting" for the last two spots, but I if the team they are fighting is Rice I see it as a no-brainer to which team has a better resume.


Again, why? Resume includes conference record and standing; in fact, that has always been weighed very, very heavily by the Committee. You cannot simply disregard conference standing and say FSU has the no-brainer superior resume. You don't.
Conference standing matters some years to the committee and not others. GT tied for the regular season title. They finished 2 games ahead of UNC and beat them head to head and yet UNC is considered a lock by everyone who predicts the field and GT isn't even mentioned after going 1-2 in the ACC.

I can see both GT and UNC getting in over FSU, but if GTs standing over UNC and that series win isn't taken into consideration for teams that play in the same conference, it has to be based on RPI. If where a team finishes in the ACC is not important to the committee when comparing to other ACC teams I can't see it being a big deal when looking at the a ACC team and a CUSA team.

I understand that Texas will probably get a national seed for winning the Big 12, but I don't think Rice gets one for winning CUSA.


You do realize Rice has a better RPI, road record and far superior SoS than Texas. No question, FSU has the better RPI and record vs.top 25/50/100, but Rice's RPI is Top 10, as well. WE certainly deserve it far more than CSF and, as I've repeatedly pointed out, it would be a travesty for A&M to get a national seed as the second Big 12 national seed, and beat out Rce in the process.
5/30/2011 7:10:17 AM
Topic:
PG 64: Final NCAA postseason projections (5/30)

weg313
weg313
OpihiMan wrote:
My unimportant analysis according to these projections:

Regional's I would fear:
UCLA
Fullerton
South Carolina
Virginia
Vanderbilt

Cakewalks:
Georgia Tech
Florida
Rice
Texas A&M
North Carolina

I see 3 very possible upsets: Stanford, Fresno State, Southern Miss

My dark horse: LSU

And I guess whoever wins the UCLA regional is an upset


USM? You do realize they just lost two of their top 4 pitchers (academically inelligible) and two of their top four hitters (Keollig and Doleac to injury). Aside from their struggles down the stretch, they are now seriously depleted-- both offensively and on the mound.
5/31/2011 7:02:57 PM
Topic:
Who's going?

weg313
weg313
Heading down to Houston to see the Owls as the road to Owlmaha begins in earnest...and will stay through the follow weekend should we be so fortunate to win the regional. Nothing like toasting out in 98 degree temperatures and 100% humidity!
edited by weg313 on 5/31/2011
6/1/2011 7:01:21 PM
Topic:
Who's going?

weg313
weg313
cmk4pres wrote:
Owlmaha? Just doesn't sound right....

And to even call it that you probably need to make it a little more....


Let's see...Rice has been to Omaha 7 times since 1997 (including 5 times over the 7-year 2002 - 2008 period). How many teams have made more appearances in the past 14 years?
6/1/2011 8:43:52 PM
Topic:
Who's going?

weg313
weg313
OpihiMan wrote:
weg313 wrote:
cmk4pres wrote:
Owlmaha? Just doesn't sound right....

And to even call it that you probably need to make it a little more....


Let's see...Rice has been to Omaha 7 times since 1997 (including 5 times over the 7-year 2002 - 2008 period). How many teams have made more appearances in the past 14 years?


Miami - 8
LSU - 7
Cal State Fullerton -7
Stanford - 7

Those are the ones in the past 14 years...


Rice is in good company, as I suspected...and CMK's very own Longhorns are not amongst this elite group.
6/26/2011 8:40:10 AM
Topic:
Greatest Coaches Ever

weg313
weg313
shoelessT wrote:
Thought it would be fun to put together a list of the top 10 greatest coaches (managers...whatever) in college baseball history. Not in order but here is some off the top of my head. Add or subtract with your opinions. Try and limit the homerism!

Augie Garrido- Fullerton, Texas
Rod Dedeaux- USC
Gene Stephensen- Wichita St
Ron Fraser- Miami
Skip Bertman- LSU
Mark Marquess- Stanford
Jim Morris- Miami
Cliff Gustafson- Texas
Jim Brock- Arizona St
Andy Lopez- Pepperdine, Florida, Arizona

I don't know about Lopez. Was just trying to go off the top of my head. I am sure I am leaving some guys out. Also, the big question is do you have to have a championship? Certainly Mike Martin would be considered as would Ron Polk. Just a fun list.


Hard to question anyone on your list, but I do think Wayne Graham (Rice) deserves to be included on this list, and not just because I'm a Rice homer. Unlike many of the names you mentioned, Coach Graham took a small, private school (the second smallest enrollment in D-I), burdened with elite academic requirements (even for athletes), with no prior history of success in college baseball, and in the matter of 3 - 4 seasons turned it into a perennial national power. In his 20 seasons at Rice, Graham has led the Owls to 17 post season appearances (they had none previously), including their current streak of 16 consecutive conference championships...7 CWS appearances...and one national championship. Again, all the other guys you listed are deserving, but only a couple of those guys (Augie, Stephenson) built a program from scratch at schools with no prior baseball history and meager athletic budgets (and neither of those schools-- CSF, Wichita State-- provide academic hurdles for their student-athletes).

Also, though it was not accomplished at the D-I level, let's not forget that Coach Graham won five national JUCO championships at San Jacinto (which included the tutelage of the young Roger Clemens and Andy Petitte) before finally getting the opportunity at Rice.
edited by weg313 on 6/26/2011
6/29/2011 3:41:31 PM
Topic:
Biggest surprise, biggest disappointment in 2011?

weg313
weg313
Can't call Cal a surprise as many of us projected them as a Top 20 team preseason. I'll go with UCF as the biggest surprise (most thought they'd be improved, but not Top 30 caliber), and a tie between UCLA and TCU as biggest disappointments (vs. preseason expectations).
6/30/2011 9:51:53 AM
Topic:
Biggest surprise, biggest disappointment in 2011?

weg313
weg313
Dallas Baptist has been a top 35 - 50 calber team for the past 3-4 years, and many of us would argue that the team a couple year's back was far better than this year's squad. Highly potent offense. The problem is that they are an independent and, consequently, though they play a tough mid-week schedule against most of the elite teams in Texas, their weekend competition is extremely weak.
7/1/2011 8:04:53 AM
Topic:
Omaha 8 For 2012: An Early Look

weg313
weg313
Since Kendall has yet to post his early picks for the 2012 CWS, thought I'd start the thread to get the thoughts of others. I'm basing my selections on returning, proven talent. In no particular order (though I think Florida is going to be prohibitive favorites, with Stanford right behind, as both teams are absolutely loaded), here's my list:

SEC: Florida, Arkansas, LSU
Pac-12: Stanford, Arizona (I'm presuming ASU will be on probation)
ACC: Georgia Tech
Big 12: Texas A&M
C-USA: Rice

IMO, teams such as Texas, FSU, Vandy, South Carolina, UVA, UCLA, TCU, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Clemson lose far too much talent-- particularly in the frontline pitching area-- to enter the 2012 season in the Top 10, though all should be Top 25 once again. St.Johns may be the sleeper pick.
7/1/2011 3:46:26 PM
Topic:
Omaha 8 For 2012: An Early Look

weg313
weg313
CockyTexan wrote:
I like the list walt, I would make one change in the SEC. Call it a homer pick but, I like South Carolina once again to return over LSU or Arkansas (one of those teams is out.) As far as proven talent returning, South Carolina is returning their entire weekend rotation (as Michael Roth announced at the trophy celebration he would be returning) and is only losing John Taylor, and Jose Mata to graduation out of the pen. Price is a question mark but if he were to leave there are several others in the pen (Webb, Casey, Neff) to replace him who have the talent. Granted we are losing Wingo, Bradley, Morales, Beary, and Thomas, which will hurt, I don't see that as too big of an issue because Christian Walker, Marzilli, Mooney, and hopefully Matthews (if he doesn't sign after being drafted very late) are all coming back as well as Stephen Neff who can pick up a bat as DH if needed, all will be a solid foundation in the lineup to help guide new players.

Now Walt I know you said on proven talent so on that basis I can see how we would be left off the list, but with the core of guys returning and if one "unproven" arm in the bullpen steps up, pitching wise we will be right where we were this year (I like Bryan Harper as my dark horse to step up next year)
Also, Im not to familiar with the guys that are coming in as freshman, but I do believe our recruiting class was top 10 in the nation for the 2012 season? (maybe you could help me out with that Kendall)


Funny, but I was debating whether to include LSU or South Carolina on my list (and almost included UNC over A&M). I think Arkansas is a bit surer bet than either, however. My Aggie pick depends upon whether Stripling returns or not. If he doesn't, then i drop A&M out of my preseason Top 10, even though they do bring back most of their offense. As for incoming recruiting class, personally, i do not give that much weight in my preseason picks for a couple reasons: (1) all of the top programs are going to have newcomers who contribute, and (2) even the most highly regarded true Freshman are hit or miss their Freshman seasons. For every Matty Ott, Knebel, Purke, Ackley and Rendon there are other, equally highly regarded guys who struggle their Freshman year before making the necessary adjustments.
edited by weg313 on 7/1/2011
7/3/2011 7:01:21 AM
Topic:
Omaha 8 For 2012: An Early Look

weg313
weg313
Slightly bias, but I don't think UCLA will suffer as much as it would seem. It could be rough early on in the year but there is a lot of returning talent. We should be better at the plate(Not that we could get much worse) as some of the younger guys get another season of experience. Losing Cole and Bauer is huge, but we've got pretty good options. Plutko had an incredible freshman year and should step into the Friday role and be fine. Zack Weiss showed flashes and if that last game against UCI is any indication, hes capable of being a 2 or 3 and doing well. There's a couple other guys who could/should be in the mix as well.

Probably still not a top ten team though. Maybe Top 15-20.


??? You do realize you finished this past year (both the regular season and post-season) in the Top 15 - 20 range (with a much lower RPI ranking), and that relatively high finish based almost entirely on Cole and Bauer atop your rotation. Projecting a similar preseason ranking without your two aces makes no sense whatsoever.
7/3/2011 12:56:54 PM
Topic:
CBT ($): RECRUITING: Updating ton of commits (7/7)

weg313
weg313
K, where are all these "new" commitments coming from, as there appears to be far late signings than in prior years? Do many of these programs suddenly have additional scholarship space that they had not forseen earlier? Otherwise, why so many late signings?
7/3/2011 4:38:25 PM
Topic:
CBT ($): RECRUITING: Updating ton of commits (7/7)

weg313
weg313
Kendall wrote:
Walt -- That's a tremendous question and one I'll ask coaches when I go to the World World Bat 17U in Marietta next weekend. I find it very very interesting, too.


It just seems really odd, K. I can understand a token late commit here and there (Craig Manuel was a late Summer commit for Rice back in '08), but there appears to be an abundance of them this year, and most are coming from the big-name programs. Unless these coaches simply miscalculated the number of roster spots that would be available, or gambled big-time in recruiting a number of Top 3 - 5 round draft picks, I just don't get it. The best high school players out there are usually long gone by this stage of the game.
edited by weg313 on 7/3/2011
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