From Rags To Riches

Beginning today and continuing into next week, Major league Baseball’s 2008 major individual award winners will be announced.

It’s readily apparent who the front-runners for the Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and Most Valuable Player awards are, and it will be just a matter of who the Baseball Writers Association of America selects as the most deserving winners.

What wasn’t so apparent in almost all of the leading awards candidates was their impending prospect status at the time they were finishing their high school careers. With the notable exception of two candidates for the American League MVP award—Josh Hamilton, the first overall pick in the 1999 draft out of a North Carolina high school, and Justin Morneau, a third-rounder from Canada in the same draft—every other player either went undrafted in high school, or was a significant draft afterthought.

In fact, of the serious candidates for 2008 post-season awards, only Hamilton, Morneau and Cubs catcher Geovany Soto, the favorite to win N.L. Rookie of the Year honors Tuesday, were signed directly out of high school. Soto was an 11th-round pick in 2001 out of a Puerto Rico high school, but even his prospect status was slow to evolve until he reached Triple-A six years later.

Consider that Evan Longoria, the favorite to win today’s A.L. top rookie award, went undrafted out of high school. The same goes for Dustin Pedroia and Albert Pujols, the consensus favorites to win the A.L. and N.L. MVP awards. Tim Lincecum, the top N.L. Cy Young candidate? A 48th-round pick of the Chicago Cubs in 2003.

Indians lefthander Cliff Lee, a near slam-dunk winner in the A.L. Cy Young voting, was an eighth-round pick of the Florida Marlins in 1997 out of an Arkansas high school. Not only did he not sign then, but Lee’s college career unraveled in much the same fashion as his major league career did before it all came together for him in 2008.

Among other front-runners for MLB’s top awards, Houston first baseman Lance Berkman, Milwaukee outfielder Ryan Braun, Philadelphia first baseman Ryan Howard, Arizona righthander Brandon Webb, Chicago White Sox outfielder Carlos Quentin and Boston first baseman Kevin Youkilis all went undrafted out of high school.

No two candidates for prominent awards may have overcome longer odds from their high school days to reach the pinnacle of their game than the 5-foot-10 Lincecum and 5-foot-7 Pedroia—two players that were essentially written off by scouts before their careers really even got started because of their unimposing physical stature. But Lincecum and Pedroia have both become poster boys for baseball’s truism that size does not matter—that heart and determination do.

Based on their modest high-school projections, here’s how we see the 10 players that might have been the least-likely finalists for this year’s major baseball awards (click on the links to Pedroia and Lincecum to read scouting reports written by Allan Simpson on the two players just before they were drafted by and signed with their current clubs). The player’s hometown and high school position and draft status are noted, along with his college and draft position at the time of his signing.

Dustin Pedroia, ss, Arizona State University (2004)
SCOUTING REPORT: Pedroia's tools are below-average across the board, but scouts say don't ever sell him short. He will be a big leaguer, and probably an everyday player. He's not physically gifted at 5-foot-9 and 165 pounds, but Pedroia is a classic overachiever and possibly the best player in college baseball. He has a tireless work ethic, an exceptional sense of the game and a tremendous on-field presence. No player is as hard-nosed or competitive, and he is without peer as a team leader. He's a blood-and-guts player who thrives under pressure and makes everyone around him play better. Scouts question whether he can be an everyday shortstop on an upper-division team because his arm and range are short, but he catches almost everything hit at him. He has very sure hands, a quick release and excellent hand-eye coordination, and is adept at cheating and anticipating plays. He doesn't profile any better as a second baseman than a shortstop, because more offense is demanded at second. While he leads the Sun Devils with a .412 average and eight home runs, he doesn't have a pretty swing and is mainly a slap hitter. But he has good strike-zone judgment and is a tough out. Among current big leaguers, he compares to Angels shortstop David Eckstein. On raw tools, Pedroia is not a conventional high-round pick but he's a perfect fit for a performance-based organization like the A's, who have four of the first 40 picks.
--ALLAN SIMPSON (written May, 2004)

Tim Lincecum, rhp, University of Washington (2006)
SCOUTING REPORT: Lincecum was already one of the most fascinating pitchers in college baseball as a freshman and sophomore, but took on a new aura this spring as he not only burst into the first round, but was squarely in Kansas City’s mix in late May to be the No. 1 pick overall. He’s been lights out all spring and performed brilliantly in almost every outing. He has an extremely fast arm on his slight 5-foot-10, 165-pound build, and stuff that was merely above-average in the past has become exceptional this year. He has thrown strikes more consistently, cleaned up his delivery and repeated it better. Lincecum was roughly the same pitcher as always in his first 3-4 starts, but his velocity spiked in a game against Gonzaga and he took off from there. He was still at 98 mph in the ninth inning against UCLA, when he struck out 18. A lowly 42nd-round pick after an 8-6, 3.11 campaign in 2005, Lincecum’s transformation in becoming a more complete pitcher began last summer in the Cape Cod League, when he led league with a 0.69 ERA, saved seven and struck out 68 with only 11 walks in 39 innings. He’s been much stronger this year, enabling him to hold his velocity deeper into games. He always had the rubber arm going back to high school that enables him to be used as a starter on Fridays, and a closer on Sundays. Very athletic, he’s never missed a start in college and durability no longer seems to be an issue anymore. Lincecum’s primary selling points in his bid to becoming the No. 1 pick include throwing more strikes this year, a downhill plane to his 95-98 fastball which has peaked at 100 mph, an exceptional slider he has thrown more consistently for strikes than the curve he relied on last year, and off-the-charts results. Scouts have graded his fastball at a perfect 80, his slider at a 70. Even after losing a 5-0 showdown to Stanford first-rounder Greg Reynolds in mid-May, Lincecum was he 12-3, 2.01 on the year, tying him for the national lead in wins; he also had 185 strikeouts in 116 innings—a nine-inning average of 14.4, which led all Division I pitchers; opponents were hitting just .168 against him. He’s not only the Washington career strikeout leader, but he also holds the top three spots for single-season strikeouts, with this year’s total topping the 161 strikeouts he had as a freshman. For all his success this year, Lincecum needs work on his command and there’s still effort to his delivery, though it’s more under control. He also throws too much over the top for some scouts, which results in a lot of strikeouts on fastballs that are in hitters’ eyes and curveballs that he drops on hitter’s feet. More advanced hitters may learn to stay away from those pitches and swing at strikes only. Of all the pitchers in this draft, Lincecum is the most ready to pitch in the big leagues right now, and likely will be there in September, at the latest.
--ALLAN SIMPSON (written May, 2006)